Ten weeks into the season and we’re at the point where we’re really not learning much new about the meta of the New Big East. But as a Navy fan, you have to like what the meta has shown us. The Midshipmen aren’t moving up from the #7 spot this week, but is it so bad to be sitting right smack in the middle of the new conference?
Last week I was asked by Dave69 if I thought there was a 4-4-4 pattern evolving in the New Big East. To finally answer him, I don’t see that existing in the conference.
But it’s extremely frustrating trying to break it down into parts. For example, one could say that we could define 4 “should win” teams this year based on their performances – Temple, USF, UConn, and Memphis. I think USF is having a crisis this year that may or may not cost Skip Holtz his job. But I certainly would not put the Bulls into that category long-term. Temple and UConn have had some success in the last 5 years, but are clearly regressing some this season. So at best there are 3 teams that are “should wins” in a good year for Navy. The issue with applying that to Navy’s schedule is that we’ll probably only get all 3 of those teams once every 6 years while divisional matchups rotate.
The “toss-ups” also shrink. Right now I’d put Houston, SMU, and SDSU into a toss-up category. But SDSU just beat Boise State at Boise, making them a prime candidate to move up to “stretch.” That would shrink the toss-ups to just two teams out of 13, and likely just one regular year-in-and-out opponent.
That means there is a whopping large “stretch” category. Once USF gets back on track, there will be 6 teams firmly in there – nearly half the conference. Louisville, Rutgers, Cincinnati, Boise State, and UCF are clearly stretch games for Navy at this point.
So there you have it. Being fairly optimistic the NBE sets up as a 6-3-3 conference right now. When you realize that our OOC schedule of Army, Air Force, Notre Dame, and a (likely) 1-AA team gives us a 1-2-1 lineup, you start to see how going 6-6 will be a really good season.
Ok, that’s my opinion. I invite others to share theirs in the comments. And now – the rankings!