Karma 4, Carney 0

We all know the story: on his official recruiting trip to the Naval Academy, Air Force quarterback Shaun Carney announced to Navy players and coaches that he would not be attending USNA. The reason? Because he didn’t think that Navy would ever beat Air Force, and he apparently wanted everyone to know it. That was back in 2002.  After having just watched Air Force beat Navy 48-7  for their eighth win in nine tries against the Mids, he probably thought that backing up that talk would be no problem. He was wrong. Navy defeated Air Force 31-20 on Saturday afternoon for their fifth straight win in the series, and fourth with Carney at the helm of the Falcons’ offense.

It’s hard to blame a kid for wanting to go to a winning program. But if he had kept his motives to himself instead of insulting his hosts, perhaps he wouldn’t have become karma’s diaper. Of course, karma had a little help. Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, Reggie Campbell, and Zerbin Singleton each had huge runs, and the Navy defense stiffened when it had to.

The game was a back-and forth affair for the first three quarters. Air Force had a pretty good game plan. When a defense is having trouble playing with discipline, the option is a good way to attack it. Air Force was able to get big gains running the option, particularly on the pitch. As expected, Air Force also incorporated a lot of misdirection into their offense, with WR Chad Hall scoring twice on end-arounds. Hall had 108 receiving yards to go along with those two rushing touchdowns. Air Force didn’t have much trouble moving the ball, rolling up 474 yards of total offense.

But as was also expected, the Falcons had trouble executing when it counted. In the first quarter, Air Force had second and goal from the Navy 10 yard line. An errant pitch from Carney to Hall led to an 11-yard loss, leading to 3rd and goal from the 21. Air Force would have to kick a field goal. In the second quarter, Air Force was stopped on 4th down at the Navy 5 yard line thanks to an excellent play from Navy LB Tony Haberer. Navy couldn’t move the ball on the ensuing drive and went 3 and out. Air Force got the ball at midfield following Greg Veteto’s punt. They were able to drive to the Navy 23, but missed a 41-yard field goal attempt. Air Force’s defense forced another 3 and out on Navy’s opening drive of the third quarter. After the punt, the Falcons were able to drive to the Navy 3. On 3rd and goal, fullback Ryan Williams was open for a sure touchdown but bobbled Carney’s pass. Air Force had to kick another field goal.

Despite these miscues, Air Force had a 20-17 lead in the 3rd quarter after Chad Hall’s second touchdown. That is where Navy took over.

After Air Force took the lead, Kaipo opened the next drive with a 53-yard pass to a streaking OJ Washington. The play put Navy at the Air Force 20, and the Mids chipped away from there, converting on two 4th downs and scoring the go-ahead touchdown. Air Force was able to take their next drive all the way to the Navy 9 yard line, but then the meltdown began. Mistake #1 was a personal foul call against the Zoomies on a ridiculously late hit after a pass to Chad Hall. Mistake #2 was a false start. Mistake #3 was a holding penalty on the next play, which gave Air Force 3rd and a nautical mile from all the way back at the Navy 39.

It’s here that Air Force coach Troy Calhoun put the frosting on the gaffe cake. Since it would take a pretty desperate heave to try to convert on 3rd down from the 39, the smart play would have been to throw for 10-15 yards and put yourself in position for a field goal. Navy had been allowing completions underneath all afternoon, and Air Force was only down 24-20. A field goal would have meant that even if Navy scored a touchdown on their next drive, it would still have been a one posession game. But Calhoun didn’t play for the field goal. Instead, he had Shaun Carney try to throw to a triple-covered Chad Hall in the end zone. The pass was short, and Air Force was forced to punt. Navy took over on the Air Force 20, and Kaipo made the Falcons pay.

The Hawaiian word for “to run fast” is holo’ino. I went into the Navy media guide to see if that’s one of Kaipo’s middle names, but it isn’t. It might not be his name, but it’s the best way to describe what happened next. One play after Eric Kettani ran up the middle for two yards, Kaipo ran the triple option to the left. The Air Force linebacker that was responsible for covering him bit the cheese, and Kaipo ran for the fastest 78 yards ever run on fieldturf. Kaipo might not be the shiftiest guy on the field, but once there’s an opening where he can start his long strides, nobody will catch him. It happened against Temple, against Ball State, and again on Saturday versus Air Force.

That TD run put Navy up 11. Air Force got the ball back with 9:18 left to play, but a Jim Ollis fumble was recovered by Blake Carter. Navy was able to run some time off the clock, and by the time Air Force had the ball again there was only 5:31 left for them to get two scores. They were able to move into field goal range to get one of the two scores they needed, but Ryan Harrison couldn’t get the ball above a leaping Jesse Iwuji, putting the finishing touches on a mistake-filled afternoon for the Falcons.

Extra Points

— The win overshadowed the problem, but Navy’s placekicking woes continued. Joey Bullen’s 51-yard attempt might have been a bit of a stretch to begin with, but he had a 42-yard attempt blocked that could have put Navy up by 14. It’s one thing to miss kicks, but it’s another to not even be able to get them past the line of scrimmage. With a stretch of tough games coming up, it’s crucial to be able to take whatever points we can get. This problem has already burned us once this season.

— Navy had a very clear speed advantage against Air Force. Reggie Campbell and Zerbin Singleton were able to make big gains on the outside, and Kaipo would’ve traveled back in time if he had a flux capacitor strapped to him. Defensively, we still made a lot of the same mistakes we’ve been making all year (@#$% missed tackles). However, our speed was so good relative to Air Force that they couldn’t convert our mistakes into the big plays that Duke or Ball State were able to make. Our recruiting has been paying off.

— I wish I could say that I was shocked to see Air Force LB John Rabold take a swing at Zerb, but I wasn’t. At least Calhoun took him out of the game. I’m not so sure that DeBerry would have. It’s hard to believe that he could be so frustrated, since this was “just another game on the schedule.”

— Air Force athletic director Hans Mueh wasted no time in doing what Air Force does best: run his mouth. Regarding Air Force’s 5-game losing streak to Navy, Mueh said, “We’ll end it next year. Guaranteed.” What a dope. I’m sure that Troy Calhoun appreciates being put on the spot like that. After all, it isn’t like Mueh himself has anything to do with whether or not his prediction comes to pass. Anyone who pays attention to Air Force athletics will tell you that this isn’t the first time Mueh has said something stupid.

— Things aren’t going to get any easier for Air Force. 430 of their 474 yards of offense was generated by seniors. In contrast, Navy started only 3 seniors on defense.

— Air Force needs to pick a uniform and stick with it. They get uglier and uglier every time they’re resdesigned.

Birddog Game Balls

— Reggie Campbell and Zerb Singleton: Navy’s leading rusher in each of the previous 4 years against Air Force had been the fullback. Determined not to let that happen again, they frequently brought linebackers to the line of scrimmage to plug holes up the middle. That made it important for the A-backs to produce, and they did. Reggie and Zerb combined for 106 yards and two touchdowns while averaging nearly 9 yards per carry. I’m not sure whose touchdown was cooler: Zerb geting airborne or Reggie’s slalom run through the Air Force defense. A’s make plays.

— Ram Vela: Ram Vela made the unusual move from cornerback to linebacker for this game, and it was a little bit of genius from Buddy Green. Ram had six tackles, including one for a loss. One of the ways that coaches measure a defensive player’s effort is by looking to see how far away they are from the ball at the end of a play. Ram was always around the ball. With his DB speed and experience, Ram also is a bit of a force multiplier, giving Coach Green more options in pass coverage. Vela found himself in one on one coverage with Chad Hall a couple of times. Hall is Air Force’s fastest player. Vela also gave Navy a little bit of speed in rushing the passer.

Actually, I’m a little surprised that Buddy didn’t play more man to man defense in this game. Hall is the only really fast guy that Air Force had, and Carney never had much of a reputation for delivering the long ball. Not that it really mattered in the end.

— Tony Haberer: Tony saved his biggest plays for when they were needed the most: stopping Jim Ollis on 4th down, and sacking Shaun Carney in the 4th quarter to force Air Force into a field goal attempt that was blocked.

— Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada: Have you heard? He’s fast. He should do one of those “Man Vs. Beast” TV shows where he can race a zebra or something.

Game Week: Air Force

 

I don’t like Air Force. I think that Fisher DeBerry was a hall-of-fame coach, but also a hall-of-fame jerk. I think that Shaun Carney was unbelievably arrogant and disrespectful after telling a reporter before last year’s Air Force-Army game how the Falcons were going to run up the score on the Black Knights. It warms my heart to think that Air Force is 0-for-Carney against Navy after he had the nerve to tell Navy coaches and players on his Annapolis recruiting trip that he was choosing Air Force because he didn’t think that Navy could beat them. When I was at USNA, the team that my football player friends said had talked the most trash was Air Force by far. Shoot, even their friggin’ Drum and Bugle Corps threw such a tantrum one year after losing to Navy that they actually tossed their 2nd place trophy into the Chesapeake (the best part of that story is that members of the Coast Guard D&B, in true Coast Guard fashion, dove in and recovered the trophy). While Army and Navy seem to embrace their common bond (even if it’s strained occasionally), Air Force from day one chose to eschew that in favor of the typical “hate” rivalries in college football. Oh, Air Force fans will act offended at that idea and say things like “we wear a uniform too,” but that’s just a show. When push comes to shove and their coach tries to run up the score against Navy to “send a message,” the uniform doesn’t seem to matter much to them anymore. When that same coach publicly ridicules both Army and Navy on media day by talking about their “new way to count to ten: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3…”, well that’s just fine with them. Some Air Force fans think that anything that comes out of the school is “classy” no matter what, simply because they’re Air Force. It doesn’t work that way. This all sounds more like Steve Spurrier vs. Phil Fulmer than Army vs. Navy. If that’s the type of rivalry they wanted, they certainly succeded in getting it.

I tell you these things not because I want to turn this post into an Air Force hate-fest, but rather in the interest of full disclosure. I’m an opinionated guy and I obviously talk about things from a Navy point of view, but I still try to maintain some level of objectivity when looking at each game from week to week. Air Force fans won’t believe it, but it is in fact possible to take an objective look at something and reach the conclusion that Air Force might not be perfect. Of course, I’m not a zoomiphile. Therefore, if I write something that isn’t in line with Air Force being the greatest team ever, you can feel free to dismiss it as the biased clack of a zoomie hater. My feelings won’t be hurt if you think so. 

Anyway, on to the game. 

First, the unavoidable, glaring reality: Air Force is 3-1.

Their supposedly revamped offense is 114th in the nation in passing, 98th in scoring, and 80th overall. Shaun Carney, who fans and media hailed for his passing efficiency the last two years, is 87th in that category so far this year with three INTs and only two TDs. The Falcon offensive line gives up one sack for every 10 passing attempts.

But Air Force is 3-1.

Air Force has defeated a MEAC team, a Utah squad without its two best offensive players, and a TCU team that not only gave the Air Force game away, but could only manage 7 offensive points the following week against an SMU team ranked 108th in total defense.

Yeah, but Air Force is 3-1.

Troy Calhoun is a rookie head coach. Their offensive coordinator left for Arkansas just a few weeks before the season began. The coaching staff is one of the youngest in the country and includes the defensive coordinator of Navy’s 1-win 2000 team.

Nevertheless, Air Force is 3-1.

It boggles the mind, given all the reasons why they should be worse. I’ll be the first to admit that I thought Air Force would be 1-3 at this point. Maybe they got lucky. Maybe (ok, definitely) Utah and TCU were very overrated. Or maybe their players just find a way to win. At the end of the day, does it matter? Not as long as they get the W, and Air Force is now halfway to bowl eligibility. Navy’s job on Saturday is to ensure that Air Force’s status in that regard doesn’t change for at least another week.

Obviously, it’s a big game. The first goal of the Navy football program each year is to win the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. It’s the closest thing to a conference championship that we have (and hopefully ever will have). The three service academies are the most unique schools in Division I. While every game is important, the games against Army and Air Force are the only real apples to apples comparisons on the schedule. These are the schools we measure ourselves against.

Paul Johnson knows what this game means. “It’s a big game. There is no sense in ducking that. It’s a big game.”

Adam Ballard knows what this game means. “I’d rather get hit with a baseball bat repeatedly than lose that trophy to Air Force.”

The PrizeYet the enthusiasm doesn’t seem to be shared on the other side. Air Force coaches and players are going out of their way to talk about how the Navy game isn’t as important to them as it used to be. According to Chad Hall, “Navy’s just another team on our schedule.” That appears to be the approved talking point for Air Force players this week, as Shaun Carney sounds pretty much the same. “When it comes down to it, it means a lot to the seniors to try to get an opportunity to go to Washington,” he told the Colorado Springs Gazette. “And other than that, it’s just a game on the schedule.” Even if someone says that it is in fact a big game, the comment is quickly followed with another about how important winning the Mountain West and getting to a bowl game are, too. The CIC Trophy has to be put into perspective, after all.

What a letdown. Fisher DeBerry was much more entertaining, with his fake Heisman campaigns, backhanded compliments, ring fetish, and rambling about his “lost dog.” It’s almost sad to see Air Force players de-emphasize the CIC Trophy so much, even if it’s probably only an act. It’s ironic too, considering that the trophy itself was an Air Force creation meant to integrate USAFA into the spirit of the Army-Navy rivalry. So much for that idea. If you’ve ever wondered why the Air Force game will never be anything like Army-Navy, their players are telling you all you need to know.

Regardless of Team Jesus Christ’s priorities, there’s an interesting game shaping up. Not only strength vs. strength, but weakness vs. weakness. We shall begin with the latter, that being the Air Force offense vs. the Navy defense.

There was a lot of speculation about what the Air Force offense would look like under Troy Calhoun. When he first took the reins of the Air Force program from Fisher DeBerry, Calhoun had a very different vision for how the offense should look. The offense would rely less on the option and instead feature a tailback who would get 20 or so carries per game. Calhoun also wanted to have more of a run-pass balance, presumably to take advantage of Shaun Carney’s accuracy. As time went on and Calhoun became more familiar with his players, he seemed to back away from that vision and favor the option a bit more. According to Paul Johnson, what he’s seeing on film is not much of a departure from what Air Force did last year. “It’s still the same kids. They are doing a lot of the same stuff,” he told Bill Wagner on Monday. “It isn’t a radical change; they are just doing it from different formations.”

Maybe not a radical change, but whatever changes they did make haven’t really worked. Air Force is still ranked in the bottom 5 in I-A in passing. That’s nothing new. What is new is that unlike years past, they aren’t ranked in the top 10 in rushing. The Air Force offense of old was always good for 250-280 rushing yards per game. So far this year, they’re averaging 223. I suppose that you can achieve “balance” by just driving rushing production down to be as low as your passing numbers, but I don’t think that’s what Troy Calhoun had in mind. Ironically, Air Force’s best offensive showing this year came against Utah, where the offense lined up the same way they did for the last 20 years and ran for 330+ yards.

The problem isn’t necessarily one of scheme. The Air Force offense just hasn’t executed very well. On the somewhat rare occasion when they did execute, their coaches had them in position to make a play. Air Force’s offense was absolutely horrible against TCU, but two huge plays in the 4th quarter resurrected them. They obviously have some big-play ability. What they’ve been lacking is the ability to make those plays with any kind of consistency, especially through the air.

Air Force’s passing problems have caught a few people by surprise. Many people regarded Shaun Carney very highly as a passer and thought that the new offense would take better advantage of his throwing ability. But why did so many think that Carney was so good? His rise through the Air Force record book is one reason, although it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that a quarterback who started for four years would have accumulated higher career numbers than most. The other reason was because of his pass efficiency rating. In 2006, Shaun Carney had a pass efficiency rating of 157.5, which would have been good for 11th in the country if he was eligible (Carney didn’t have the minimum of 15 attempts per game). In the new offense, that rating has plunged to 111.8. And that’s where statistics can lead you astray; sometimes they tell you more about what you’re doing than how well you’re doing it. This is the case with Carney. Pass effieciency is all about bang for the buck. In an option offense, a good portion of the passing is done with play-action to catch defenses sleeping, leading to wide-open receivers running for daylight. These passes are completed for big gains, and often touchdowns. That’s what drives the pass efficiency numbers. It’s no different with Navy’s offense. In 2005, Lamar Owens’ 144.2 rating would have been good enough to rank him in the top 20 in that category. I don’t think anybody would have considered him a top passer that year, though. Lamar was simply good enough to do what his particular offense asked him to do. The same can be said of Carney, only now he’s being asked to do something different. Passing is a lot harder when defenses are expecting it.

Air Force might be struggling on offense, but they aren’t exactly taking on the Monsters of the Midway this week. As you are well aware by now, Navy’s defense has had problems of its own. Some people take comfort in knowing that the Air Force offense isn’t nearly as big as the offenses that Navy has faced this year. I am not one of those people. While it’s true that Navy has faced some big teams this year, physical differences aren’t the source of Navy’s problems. Navy’s problems come from a lack of discipline and experience. You don’t have to be 320 pounds to move a defensive lineman out of the way if that DL is running the wrong way to begin with. Schematically, Air Force naturally employs a lot of fakes, misdirection, and play-action. Those things, plus the occasional trick play, will mean big trouble for a defense that plays as sloppily as Navy has this year. Air Force will have open plays. The question is whether or not they can execute them.

For all of the talk about Air Force’s offense, the biggest surprise has actually been their defense– but for the opposite reason. Air Force is giving up a respectable 333 yards per game, including less than 100 per game on the ground. They are ranked in the top 20 in scoring defense. Now it’s true that they’ve faced a few struggling offenses, but it isn’t like Duke was lighting up anyone’s scoreboard before they played Navy. Air Force’s defense is playing good football, and they’re doing it using an attacking style that many people (including myself) thought would leave them exposed to the big play. It hasn’t really happened yet, thanks in large part to a veteran linebacking corps led by Drew Fowler and John Rabold. Air Force already has 9 sacks this year and gives up less than three yards per carry.

With the pressure that Air Force is sure to bring to the line of scrimmage to stop the option, Kaipo could have to replicate his passing performance from last week. It’s kind of funny that Kaipo’s 217 yards passing last week in Paul Johnson’s “one-dimensional” offense is more than any game that Shaun Carney has had this year in his new “balanced” offense. Chances are that Air Force defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter is going to make him have to prove that it wasn’t a fluke. Or maybe it’s more accurate that DeRuyter is going to make the offensive line prove that it wasn’t a fluke. Either way, the pressure is coming. Navy’s offensive fate rests on the team’s ability to handle it and Paul Johnson’s ability to adjust to it. The latter is a no-brainer. I feel a little bit better about the former after watching the offense last week.

Shaun Carney went to the Air Force Academy because he said that Navy would never beat them. Since then, Navy has never lost to them. Carney has one more chance to do what he went to Air Force to do. For Navy, it’s time to finish karma’s job.

Navy Outlasts Duke

Hands on hips. That’s always the sign that the defense is tired; between plays, the players put their hands on their hips. Two plays before Bobby Doyle tapped into his quarterback experience and delivered a perfect pass to Jarod Bryant for the game-tying touchdown, CSTV cameras panned over the Duke defense. Almost all of the Blue Devil defenders were standing with their hands on their hips. They were exhausted.

The hot Annapolis afternoon took its toll on players from both teams. The difference in the game was that Navy had the depth to replace players who were worn out by the heat. Bobby Doyle stepped in late in place of the injured Shun White and picked up a key first down before he threw the TD pass. Joey Bullen is the hero after booming two field goals and two deep kickoffs in place of Matt Harmon. Eric Kettani and Adam Ballard were a tag-team at fullback. The offensive and defensive lines were rotating guys through like it was grade-school volleyball. And then, of course, there was the jolt the offense received when Jarod Bryant came into the game to replace the “gassed” Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada.

Last week I wrote that Navy coaches were expecting Duke to come out and try to run the ball. The Duke coaching staff didn’t get the memo. Navy got almost no pressure on the quarterback, and as a result Thaddeus Lewis had a career day passing the ball, throwing for 428 yards and four touchdowns. All four of those touchdowns and more than half of those yards went to wide receiver Eron Riley, who averaged almost 40 yards per catch. Navy had no answer for the Duke passing game.

There’s a lot to go over, so let’s get started.

The defense stinks.

I don’t know what to say, so I will put this in pictures. Here is my pictoral essay on things that are more stout than the Navy defense:

Ok, ok, before I pile onto the defense too much, they deserve a lot of credit. On a day when players were dropping like flies, they fought hard through the whole game. In fact, their biggest plays– Nate Frazier’s sack, Tony Haberer’s fumble recovery, and Ketric Buffin’s interception– all came in the second half. “I think the biggest thing that sticks out in my mind about this game is that our kids didn’t quit,” PJ said in his postgame press conference. “They fought from start to finish and they kept playing. If you’ll do that, you’re going to always have a chance. You may not always win, but you’ll always have a chance if you keep fighting.”

The guys are playing hard. Now they need to play smart. To me, there’s one play you will all remember that perfectly illustrates the problem. In the third quarter, Duke got the ball in Navy territory after Navy couldn’t convert on a fake punt. They picked up a first down and moved the ball to the Navy 32 yard line. Then, a glorious thing happened; Nate Frazier stunted around from his NG position and sacked Thaddeus Lewis. On the next play, Lewis fumbled the snap, resulting in a 3rd and 20 for Duke. They only picked up 10 on the next play, leading to 4th and 10 from the Navy 32. Since they’re in that middle ground where they’re too close to punt but too far for a field goal, Duke goes for the first down. On that 4th down play, Lewis takes the snap in the shotgun. Kyle Bookhout is playing left DE and starts his rush outside. Not being able to get by the tackle, he spins inside and runs straight into a double-team. Meanwhile, now that the DE has spun inside, there’s nobody left with containment on the outside. Lewis sees this and cruises for an 11 yard run and a first down. That’s just a lack of discipline, and things like that are happening on every play. How many times does the defense bite on a fake, or get horribly out of position on a misdirection play? Again, the defense is playing hard. To play hard, though, does not mean to play recklessly.

The philosophy behind the Navy defense is to keep everything in front of them, but it seemed like more plays went over their heads in the Duke game than in the last two years combined. This is the third straight game where the defense has given up 475+ yards. It was a great win on Saturday, but things won’t always work out so well if the defense keeps this up. The first leg of the CIC Trophy round-robin is this week, so they better figure it out soon.

The offense does not stink.

In 2003 when Navy lost to Delaware, Blue Hens coach K.C. Keeler made it obvious in his halftime interview that he didn’t care about the Navy passing game. He was going to take all 11 guys he had on defense and bring them crashing down to stop the option. If the ball got thrown over their heads, too bad. Well, it did get thrown over their head once, as Craig Candeto hit a wide-open Eric Roberts for a long TD pass in the first quarter. Keeler didn’t care. He had decided that Navy would have to beat him through the air, and Navy couldn’t do it. Delaware walked out of there with a 21-17 win.

Duke took the same approach on Saturday. This year, though, Navy got the job done through the air. Navy’s 236 yards passing forced Duke to back off, which opened up some running room. The toss sweep worked a little better in the second half, with Reggie Campbell and Bobby Doyle combining to average 11 yards per carry. After a rough start for the offensive line, they were able to get enough push for the two fullbacks to combine for 100 yards. The two quarterbacks also combined to top 100 rushing yards. The offense limited the mental errors, with Kaipo’s interception being the only real screwup.

On the subject of quarterbacks…

Ok, everybody’s in love with Jarod Bryant right now. In fact, in the third quarter when Kaipo threw an incomplete pass to Reggie Campbell on a wheel route, a group of jerk Mids could clearly be heard starting a “Jarod Bryant” chant. Nice bilge, fellas.

Everyone needs to take a step back and look at the big picture. Jarod Bryant is succeeding because PJ is putting him into situations where he can succeed. He was the right player at the right time because his fresh legs made him nearly impossible to tackle to fading Duke defenders. “Jarod played really well, but also I think that in a game like that where everybody was tired– I mean our guys were tired too– and you put in a guy who’s fresh, all of a sudden he’s a lot quicker and a lot faster than everybody else,” remarked PJ. “We’ve got a lot of confidence in him. Coach Jasper and I talked about it. We felt like Kaipo was kind of winded. He had done nothing wrong. Gosh, he had moved the offense up and down the field and played well, but I thought Jarod might give us a little boost. We needed a little kick and he kind of gave us one.” Don’t underestimate the impact that a fresh-legged player can have late in the game. Jarod was the right player at the right time. That doesn’t mean that it’s time to make a switch.

Do those of you who want to bench Kaipo have any idea of how much of a juggernaut our offense is right now? We’re #1 in the country in rushing offense. We’re also #22 in total offense. Ahead of USC. Ahead of LSU. Ahead of Texas. Navy fans have talked for years about whether the offense of PJ’s Hawaii days would ever make an appearance in Annapolis. On Saturday, it did. Why on earth would anyone want to mess with that? The Navy offense is working. In this offense, no matter what you think you’ve seen, that means that the quarterback is working. Navy fans have also taken it as gospel that Bryant is the better passer between the two quarterbacks; after Saturday, I don’t think that’s a given.

Haven’t we learned anything by now? In 2002, Aaron Polanco stepped in for Craig Candeto against Boston College in the second half and moved the ball pretty well. People started to wonder if Polanco should start. Craig got hurt in the first series against Notre Dame, and Aaron did a good job filling in the rest of the game. With Craig out, the people who wanted Aaron to start got their wish the next week against UConn. That game ended up being probably the worst offensive performance in the history of Navy football. Not that it was all Aaron’s fault, but he obviously wasn’t the panacea that some people were making him out to be. Craig came back, led the offense to a good game against a bowl-bound Wake Forest team, then scrambled the record book against Army. The rest is history.

In 2004, people were wondering how the offense would be able to carry on without Candeto. Polanco proceeded to lead the team to its best season in 40 years.

In 2005, Lamar Owens got off to a rough start. He had to leave the Maryland game because of cramps. He was also having a tough time passing the ball. People started to question his heart. They went so far as hyperanalyzing his body language on the sideline and calling out his leadership ability. After a decent relief appearance against Stanford, these people called for junior Brian Hampton to start, saying that we would be better off having a two-year starter. Meanwhile, Lamar came back to lead Navy to an 8-2 record the rest of the way, including rolling up 51 points against Colorado State in the Poinsettia Bowl.

In 2006, Brian Hampton got off to a rough start against ECU. He missed a bunch of open receivers and had some of his pitches batted down. In week 2 against Massachussetts, the offense turned the ball over 6 times and the team barely squeaked out a 1-point win. People again started to panic and called for a quarterback change. The next week, Hampton led Navy to a 37-9 rout of Stanford, and all was well again…

…that is, until Hampton went down to injury against Rutgers. Kaipo came into the game and got crushed. Jarod Bryant came into the game after Kaipo and also got crushed, only some people seemed to think that he got crushed a little less. So when Kaipo was named the starter for the Notre Dame game the next week, people were already calling for Bryant instead. Kaipo played pretty well against Notre Dame, though, and went on to lead the team to wins in four of the last five games.

Maybe we should have figured this out by now.

I have read some calm and well-reasoned arguments as to why Jarod Bryant should start. I have also read everything from the ridiculous to the downright shameful. There is no reason why anyone should be questioning Kaipo’s heart simply because he ran out of steam on a sweltering afternoon. In case you didn’t notice, a lot of players came out of that game. As I said at the beginning of this rambling post, it was a game decided by more subs than just at quarterback. Maybe when you’ve played your ass off for three quarters on an afternoon like that, you can start questioning any of these kids’ dedication. Until then, you’d be better served keeping your mouth shut. You know who you are.

In the 1996 Aloha Bowl, Ben Fay came into the game in the 4th quarter in relief of an exhausted Chris McCoy. Fay provided the fresh legs that Navy needed to pull out a victory after a late Cal turnover. Sound familiar? Does anyone think that the ’96 team would have been better off if Fay had started all year? Now it’s 2007, and as the philosopher Robert Plant once said, the song remains the same. In the midst of all the wailing and gnashing of teeth that’s going on with fans, Navy’s offense is shaping up to be the best that we’ve had under Paul Johnson. Two straight games with 500+ yards of offense; some saying about fixing things that aren’t broken comes to mind.

We have two quarterbacks that the coaching staff has confidence in. In these marathon games, we know that we can have fresh legs on tap at the end. Embrace what we have. Don’t mess with success.

Birddog Game Balls

— Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada: Kaipo was 11-16 passing for 217 yards. With the success that Duke was having selling out against the option, only Kaipo’s arm kept Navy in the game in the first half. Now that Air Johnson is on film, everyone’s going to have to respect our ability to pass the rest of the year.

— Jarod Bryant: Jarod needs to submit a no-shave chit. Every good closer needs facial hair at some point. Or maybe we can play Hell’s Bells on the PA when he comes into the game. That is, if Chuck Atwater doesn’t mind. Jarod’s QB draw to start the game-winning drive was killer. It looked like old NFL Films highlights of Jim Brown running in the open field.

— Blake Carter: So who here plays Madden or NCAA Football on the Playstation or Xbox? You know what a “money play” is? That play you know you can pull out in a long-yardage situation to get a first down because the computer never stops it? Everyone has one or two go-to plays like that. On Saturday, Duke did too: that swing pass/bubble screen to the WR in the flat. It was good for 15 yards every time. That is, until Blake Carter entered the game. He blew up that play at least twice in the second half and pretty much single-handedly took it away from Duke. That made a HUGE difference.

— Joey Bullen: Duh.

Game Week: Duke

6’8″, 310
6’5″, 285
6’4″, 285
6’6″, 290
6’6″, 280

Those are the heights and weights of the Duke offensive line. While they might not be the biggest in the country, they’re still big; plenty big enough to be a problem for the Navy defense. But that’s the story every week, isn’t it? Ten of the twelve teams on Navy’s schedule are virtually guaranteed to be bigger than the Mids each year, and even Army and Air Force have outweighed the Mids up front the last couple of years. Heck, Duke was bigger than Navy last year when Navy rushed for 435 yards and held Duke to only 113. Well, that was last year. Overcoming weight disadvantages with last year’s players is no guarantee that it will happen again with this year’s. Indeed, through three games, it hasn’t.

There are a lot of things that an offense can do schematically to overcome a size disadvantage. Navy’s A-backs are smaller than the average Division I-A running back, but they very rarely have to run between the tackles. In Paul Johnson’s offense, they get the ball in space to take advantage of their speed. Navy’s offensive linemen are also generally smaller than their counterparts on other teams. The Navy offense doesn’t ask the same things from its linemen, though. Rather than engage defensive linemen one on one, larger defensive tackles are frequently double-teamed while a defensive end goes unblocked as the quarterback’s give key. Most schools like tall offensive linemen, particularly tackles, because they can take bigger backward strides in pass protection to counter the speed of defensive ends and linebackers. At Navy, shorter offensive linemen are better suited for the cut-blocking that the triple option requires.

On the other side of the ball, though, there isn’t much you can do. If an offense wants to run the ball down your throat, there isn’t a scheme that will make up for a 235 lb. DE taking on a 310 lb. tackle. There are only so many ways a defense can line up. Since no scheme will solve this, the only way to limit the damage is through individual effort and sound fundamentals. Therein lies the problem.

As I have posted in earlier entries, effort and fundamentals haven’t exactly been the calling cards of the Navy defense this year. Well, fundamentals anyway. From what my untrained eye could tell, the effort level was better against Ball State than it was against Rutgers. At the very least, Coach Johnson hasn’t complained about effort in his press briefings so far this week. Fundamentals, on the other hand, are still being widely discussed. As was pointed out after the Ball State game, the defense has problems lining up correctly. All the effort in the world can’t make up for missed assignments. Missed assignments also compound the size disadvantage. Even if you’re getting pushed around, if you’re minding your gaps you’ll be in a position to make a tackle. It might be three yards downfield, but you’ll be there. When you line up incorrectly, not only will nobody be in the right spot to make the tackle, but the hole that the running back will have to run through will be huge. In a 3-4 defense, the linebackers are the playmakers. The defensive line’s job is to absorb blocks, leaving linebackers free to move from sideline to sideline. When you line up incorrectly, it leaves offensive linemen free to put a block on a linebacker who otherwise could have made a play.

After watching film of Ball State nearly doubling their season rushing total against Navy, first-year Duke offensive coordinator Peter Vaas has to be excited. Navy seems to be the cure for what ails opposing running games. Ball State was no rushing juggernaut coming into the Navy game, but 262 yards later their running game was back on track. The Duke coaching staff has to see this game as an opportunity to jumpstart their own ground game, which is in far worse shape than Ball State’s. Duke’s leading rusher, Justin Boyle, averages less than three yards per carry and has only 66 yards through 3 games. Their second-leading rusher, fullback (and Army transfer) Tielor Robinson, averages a more respectable 3.7 yards per carry. Unfortunately for the Blue Devils, he’s also out for the year. The Navy game is an opportunity for the Duke offense to gain some momentum and confidence in running the ball going into the meat of their ACC schedule.

At least, that’s what Paul Johnson is expecting from Duke on Saturday. Quarterback Thaddeus Lewis is developing into a really good player for the Blue Devils, but that isn’t the coach’s focus this week. “I hope we can limit them running the ball. For us to be successful we have to limit the rushing yards,” he said on Tuesday. “If they come in and pass for what they are passing for we can live with that. We have to limit the rushing yards.”

In other words, Navy’s defense can’t have a repeat of the Ball State game.

Since Navy coaches expect that Duke will have a similar offensive gameplan to Ball State, how do they prevent a similar result? The word of the week at practice has been “simplification.” What exactly does that entail? According to Sandra McKee this morning, Buddy Green has cut the number of defensive plays in half in order to give his young defense fewer assignments to remember. It seems to be working. If the defense is as athletic as Coach Johnson said at the beginning of the year, then just getting lined up correctly should be enough to allow them to make a few plays. Of course, having fewer plays in the defensive gameplan means that the Duke offense has fewer things to think about, but it’s probably best to deal with that issue when we come to it. It isn’t like the defense can get that much worse at this point.

TauiliiliLike Navy, Duke has a bit of a rebuilding effort this year on defense with only two seniors expected to start. Unlike Navy, some leaders have emerged on that defense. Michael Tauiliili is no surprise. Duke’s leading tackler the last two seasons, Tauiliili has picked up right where he left off. After missing Duke’s opener against Connecticut due to suspension, the junior middle linebacker returned to force turnovers in each of the last two games, including an interception on the second play of Duke’s win over Northwestern. Tauiliili was just as rangy against Navy last year, registering 13 tackles. While his performance is no surprise, Vincent Rey’s is. A sophomore who lines up at weakside linebacker, Rey is third in the ACC in tackles. He had 17 against Connecticut alone. Rey had 11 last week against Northwestern to go along with 4 pass breakups and two tackles for a loss, earning him ACC Player of the Week honors. Patrick Bailey plays a hybrid DE/LB position and is also in the ACC’s top 10 in tackles. With the emergence of Rey and the consistency of Tauiliili added on to the talent of preseason Lindy’s and Athlon All-ACC pick Vince Oghobaase, Duke has a better defense than people think.

Last year, the Duke game was where Navy fans got their first real look at Kaipo’s potential. He had is first career 100-yard rushing game and threw his first career touchdown pass while leading the offense to 435 rushing yards and 38 points. With that performance, chances are that Duke will line up differently this year. No matter how they line up, the key matchup will be Antron Harper against the 6’6″, 310-lb. Oghobaase. Antron hasn’t been 100% healthy yet this year, and he’s going to need everything his injured ankles can give him to move that mountain of a DT. The fullbacks also had a big game against Duke in 2006, with Adam Ballard running for 104 yards. Now that the offense finally established the FB last week, I don’t think they want to lose that momentum.

The importance of this game can’t be overstated. The confidence gained or lost from winning or losing will have a huge impact in the first leg of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy battle next week. Win, and Navy is back on track. Lose, and you’re 1-3 with doubt creeping in and a likely 3-1 Air Force team coming to town. We hear Paul Johnson say all the time that the most important game of the season is the next one. This week, that couldn’t be more true.

Extra points:

— Navy better have solved its kicking issues after last week. Duke has already blocked three kicks this season: an extra point against UConn plus a punt and a field goal at Virginia (the latter coming from, once again, Vincent Rey). Duke’s special teams superlatives extend to kickoffs, where Jabari Marshall leads the ACC in return average at 28.5 yards (including a 94-yard TD vs. UConn). Duke kickoff coverage is #1 in the nation, allowing only 14.36 yards per return. Navy has also done well on kick coverage so far, ranking 8th nationally at 16.23 yards per return.

— And you thought Juicy Juice was bad… At some point during the game, you just know that Duke NG Ayanga Okpokowuruk will tackle Navy QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada. Thoughts and prayers go out to Bob Socci, Pete Medhurst, and their families.

Navy Is Not a Good Football Team

Ladies and gentlemen, this is reality. Navy is not good. It might hurt to say it, but it’s hard to reach any other conclusion objectively. Could Navy be good eventually? Maybe, but right now the team has a host of problems. How can a team that rushed for almost 1/3 of a mile and scored 31 points still lose a football game? Through fumbles, special teams miscues, and a defense about as stout as the Maginot Line.

Once again, I’m going to talk to myself:

OK, so tell me about these problems.

The offense produced against Ball State. They had 521 yards rushing, scored 31 points, only had to punt once, and averaged eight yards per play. As productive as they were, though, they still weren’t flawless. Shun White fumbled a perfect pitch in the third quarter when he was looking upfield instead of at the ball. Jarod Bryant’s overtime fumble washed out his commendable second-half performance in relief of an injured Kaipo.

Bryant’s fumble was disastrous, but the game should never have reached that point. With two seconds left in the game, Matt Harmon put what should have been a chip shot, game winning field goal on a trajectory so low that his own linemen probably could have blocked it just by standing at attention. That was Harmon’s second blocked field goal of the game. Kicking a field goal is about as basic as it gets in football. Making the same mistake twice in one game is inexcusable.

Both of those problems are bad, but likely correctable. The offense needs some up-downs during practice to remind them to keep their heads in the game, and we might see a new kicker. The defense’s problems, though, run a lot deeper.  

I don’t know where to begin. I guess we’ll start with the big picture: Ball State had a ridiculous 539 yards of total offense. The Cardinals had a total of 293 rushing yards for the season coming into the game; against Navy, they nearly doubled that with 262. They converted 11 of 15 third downs. Once again, Navy did not record a sack, and still has only one through 3 games. Ketric Buffin and Darius Terry managed to make a couple of plays, but for the most part the front seven was silent.

The defense’s struggles put the offense in a bad position. In order for Navy to win, the offense now has to be perfect. Every time the offense doesn’t score, it could potentially cost the team the game. Every mistake the offense makes is amplified because the defense isn’t able to make a play of its own. Nobody, especially Navy, is going to have a successful season if they go into every game with the mindset of “last team with the ball wins.”

In his blog, Bill Wagner tells us that during a phone conversation he had with PJ (showoff), a little light has been shed on some of the defense’s issues.

“We need to simplify some stuff,” Johnson said. “We’re not getting lined up properly and we don’t understand what we’re supposed to do.”

Johnson said some coach-speak, technical mumbo jumbo about the Navy defense being in a “five technique when we were supposed to be in a down nine technique.” I have no idea what that means, other than the fact Navy’s defense was not in the formation it should have been based on the way Ball State lined up.

I have a feeling that Wagner does indeed know what this means, but feels that the details would just weigh down his post. I have no such discretion. PJ is referring to how the defensive line and down linebackers are supposed to line up across from the offensive line. These assignments are the fundamentals of pass rushing and gap control in the running game. For example, in the five technique that PJ is talking about, the lineman/LB is lined up on the outside eye of the tackle. His responsibility would be the C gap, between the tackle and tight end. In the nine technique, the lineman/LB is lined up on the outside eye of the tight end and is responsible for outside containment. Now, multiply missed assignments like this by each down lineman or LB and it’s obvious how there can be such wide running lanes for opposing RBs, and why opposing offensive lines have no problem handling our pass rush. Again, from Wagner:

Johnson said the film showed instances on Saturday when Navy left the area within five yards of the line of scrimmage (known as the box) completely wide open due to linemen slanting the wrong way and linebackers either getting blocked or running themselves out of the play.

It also makes it easy to understand what PJ meant earlier when he said that the defense was playing “street ball;” they’re just lining up wherever and trying to bull rush the OL rather than minding their assigned technique.

So tell the coaches to fix it! I’m so smart.

Well, it isn’t that easy. This isn’t one of those things that coaches can micromanage during a game. The coaches are teaching these things in practice, but during a game it’s the players’ responsibility to know where to line up when the defense is called. That’s why losing Sovie was so huge; lining everyone up correctly was his job. Nobody else has shown the ability to do that yet. You could say that the defense is young, and that’s true. But if the team is content with that, then it’s going to be a long year. That’s why PJ wants to, as he puts it, “simplify” the defense. If the players don’t know where they’re supposed to line up, then it’s time to call plays where they will. That’s apparently what PJ and Buddy have in store for practice this week.

Should I start talking quarterback controversy?

No. Jarod Bryant did step in and play well, with the obvious and catastrophic exception being the overtime fumble. He seemed to miss a couple of reads, but nothing out of the ordinary for the third game of the season. Bryant also had the benefit of PJ’s halftime adjustments. The offense moved the ball well in the second half, but it wasn’t Jarod Bryant that opened up the toss sweep or changed the blocking scheme to give the fullback room to rumble. That was PJ. Bryant managed the offense effectively, but the quarterback wasn’t the only change that was made in the second half.

Don’t forget that Kaipo was on his way to a career day before he got hurt, with 117 yards and two TDs in one half. The bulk of those yards came on a beautiful 80-yard TD run that showcased his deceptive speed. Before he was injured, I thought Kaipo had shown a lot of improvement in running with more strength. PJ called the midline option regularly in the first two quarters, and Kaipo gained good yards by putting his head down and fighting inside. He could get better, but he wasn’t tip-toeing anymore. He seemed to run with more authority. He wasn’t perfect; his passing was still awkward, and he took a bad sack that put us on the edge of field goal range. But he didn’t do anything to demonstrate why he shouldn’t start.

Assuming that Kaipo is healthy, he’ll start against Duke. The good thing is that we know we can be confident with either quarterback running the offense.

Should I start talking fullback controversy?

No. We knew both FBs were going to play. Ballard averaged 5 yards per carry and ran for 75 yards. He had a good day. PJ said last week, though, that if one of the fullbacks was hot, he wasn’t going to take him out. With a couple of great TD runs, Kettani was hot. I’m sure they’ll both play plenty next week.

Should I start talking kicker controversy?

Perhaps. Harmon is usually dependable, but his worm-burner FG attempts were costly. Maybe he’s changed his kicking technique to handle kicking off from the 30 instead of the 35 or something. I can’t think of any other explanation why his FGs would take such a low trajectory all of a sudden. But with proven big-game kicker Joey Bullen breathing down his neck and Kyle Delahooke turning heads in the JV game, Harmon might not have the chance to redeem himself. Don’t be surprised if Harmon handles kickoffs on Saturday, with Bullen taking the FGs. Pure conjecture on my part, of course; but what else is new?

So now what?

Well, the good news is that Wagner reports that both Kaipo and Irv Spencer should be healthy enough to play on Saturday. That’s a start, assuming they can get through a week of practice without aggravating their injuries.

All we can hope for now is that the defense will learn, and that the offense can stop making careless mistakes in order to pick up the slack until they do. Last week I told you that Ball State was a good football team, but they aren’t the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers. They have no business running for 262 yards against anybody. If that’s the kind of defense we’ll get all year, then we might as well start packing up the CIC Trophy, never mind a bowl bid. 

Along those lines, I hope that Navy fans understand just how special the past few seasons were. There has been a lot of talk around here of “next level” and “signature wins” and whatnot, while implying that seasons like ’03-’06 just won’t cut it for too long. I hope that everyone understands how much of a balancing act it is to succeed at USNA, and how little it takes to tip that balance.

…etc.

— Navy has sold 22,634 season tickets, breaking last year’s record of 20,206. Nearly 67% of the seats at Navy-Marine Corps Stadium are occupied by season ticket holders. Pretty soon we’re going to have to stop saying that PJ is worth his weight in gold. I wonder if gold is worth its weight in PJs.

— Bill Wagner talks some more about the injuries to Deliz and Sovie.

— Wagner also scratches his curiosity itch that was caused by a comment made by Coach Johnson at one of his practice Q&As. NAPSters are populating a lot of football rosters out there. I’m not being self-serving on this one, I swear.

Read this. Be proud.

Game Week: Ball State

The transcript of Paul Johnson’s Monday press conference says a lot, but there are some things that aren’t conveyed in print. A clearly agitated PJ held his practice Q&A with reporters amidst a backdrop of whistles and screaming assistant coaches conducting conditioning drills. Coach Johnson noted that he saw a whopping 62 efforts in the film of the Rutgers game. An “effort,” for the purposes of player evaluation at Navy, is a play by an individual where a coach determines that the player doesn’t go at full speed from snap to the whistle. To give you a feel for how bad a 62-effort game is, PJ says that by the end of last year the number of efforts per game was in the single digits. Compounding the problem in PJ’s mind was that this performance came against a top 25 team, which one would think would be a huge motivator. Apparently, that wasn’t the case. Not in PJ’s eyes, anyway, and he conducted his practice accordingly. It isn’t a very good time to be a Navy football player; Paul Johnson has a way of delivering a message very effectively.

Knowing this, Navy fans are probably expecting a much better performance from the Mids on Saturday. That might happen, but Navy isn’t playing in a vacuum. They have a good football team waiting for them.

Remember at the end of the trial in the movie A Time to Kill, when Jake Brigance asks the jury members to close their eyes while he tells them a story? I’m going to do the same here, only you have to keep your eyes open because you need them to read. OK, that didn’t come off as well as I thought it would… Bah, screw it.  Just pretend that you’re closing your eyes. Pretend that while your eyes are closed, I tell you about a football team. This football team is coming off of a 38-16 win against a conference opponent. They average nearly 400 yards of offense per game, including 250 through the air. They have yet to turn the ball over after two games. They are in the top 25 in total defense, giving up only 279 yards per game thus far. This team features a quarterback who is on the watch lists for both major quarterback awards, was named by The Sporting News as his conference’s preseason player of the year, and has thrown for 5 TDs and no INTs over his first two games. The team also features a wide receiver who had 210 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs in his last game. This team’s TE stands at 6-6, is on the Mackey Award watch list, and was named by The Sporting News as the 10th best TE in the nation. Can you see this team? Can you? Now this is the part where you open your eyes in shock and confusion when I tell you that this team is Ball State.

Yes, Ball State. Of course, you already knew that, since they’re next on the schedule and named at the top of this post. But you get my point. If this team was called anything other than Ball State, they’d be fairly highly regarded right now. As Navy fans, I think most of us understand that it’s tough to shake off perception after losing for so long. We know we’ve become a pretty good team, though, and we expect to win each week. Ball State fans are starting to feel the same way. And why wouldn’t they? They won 3 out of their last 4 games to end the 2006 season, with the loss coming in a very close game at Michigan. The Cardinals had a hiccup against Miami (OH) after a 56-yard punt return set up Miami’s winning TD with 17 seconds left, but they dominated Eastern Michigan. They certainly expect to be one of the better teams in the MAC this year, and have high hopes of becoming bowl-eligible for the first time since they won the conference in 1996.

I don’t want to play up statistics too much, because we all know that statistics are as much an indicator of who you’ve played as they are of how you’ve played. Anyone can cherry-pick stats to reassure themselves of their team’s greatness. Air Force fans do it all the time. But while numbers never tell the whole story, the stats I mentioned certainly don’t do anything to dismiss the observation that regardless of how good Miami and Eastern Michigan are, Ball State is playing some pretty good football right now .

On the flip side, Navy is hurting, especially defensively. Let’s pull out the ol’ stat book again. When I previewed Rutgers, I said that Buffalo “might be the worst team in I-A.” This is a team that has gone 3-20 over the last two years, so if they aren’t the worst they’re at least in the conversation. Coincidentally, Buffalo has also played the same two teams that Navy has this year in Rutgers and Temple. So how does Navy stack up to Buffalo statistically? In total defense:

61 Buffalo  352.00 ypg
69 Navy     374.50

Buffalo has given up 22 fewer yards per game. A scoring defense comparison doesn’t yield a better result:

56 Buffalo    22.5 ppg
89 Navy       30.0

That’s Buffalo, people. I don’t mean to disparage Turner Gill’s team. My point is that this is a Buffalo team that is undergoing a MAJOR rebuilding effort. At Navy, we like to think that we have advanced past that point. After two games, though, the defense hasn’t played like it, and they’re playing a Ball State team that is more than capable of taking full advantage. But that’s not all…

Q: What do you get when you take a struggling defense and remove both the team captain and the best linebacker for the rest of the season?

A: Problems. Big problems.

PJ dropped a bomb in is press briefing yesterday, and Bill Wagner reported it on his blog. Jeff Deliz and Clint Sovie are both going under the knife today and are out for the year. Now a young defense trying to turn things around has to do so without its two biggest leaders. Are you concerned yet? You should be. This is a huge game for the Navy defense. It isn’t surprising that they struggled against Rutgers and their bona fide Heisman candidate. If they turn around and struggle against Ball State though, then it starts to look like a pattern. A young squad without its leaders can lose confidence quickly, and before you know it things start spiraling downward. PJ has said that this defense has the athletic ability to be successful. Now they have to get it done between the ears.

Ball State runs to keep defenses honest. Their bread and butter is a passing game led by quarterback Nate Davis. Once again, the fate of the Navy defense is going to be determined up front. Can anyone break through the offensive line to apply some pressure? Ball State has only given up 3 sacks in their two games, but Miami and EMU were able to get enough pressure on Davis that he’s only completed 51% of his passes. If Navy can do the same, then they should have a chance to win. But with Ball State RB MiQuale Lewis averaging almost 20 yards a catch, you don’t want to have to send in too many to generate that pressure; it would leave the defense susceptible to the screen. Sometimes it seems that nothing kills Navy quite like screen passes.

Now let’s take a trip in the way-back machine and think about the 2005 Navy season. Lamar Owens struggled over the first half of the season in the passing game. After a loss to Rutgers in which Lamar threw two interceptions and was sacked 5 times, a frustrated Paul Johnson was asked how he could solve this problem. PJ replied that he would simply not throw the ball anymore, which drew some chuckles from those of us who read the transcripts from his press briefings. But PJ was serious. The next week, Navy attempted only 3 passes while rushing for 418 yards in a 49-21 rout of Tulane. Today, we have another loss to Rutgers after throwing three interceptions, and an exasperated PJ wondering why he even calls pass plays. Sound familiar? I think the game plan on offense will be a lot like that Tulane game: back to basics. Ball State was ranked 103rd in rushing defense a year ago. By the end of this game they’ll know if they’ve turned that around or not.

This is a huge game for both teams. Ball State wants to avoid a 1-2 start with games on the road at Nebraska, at Illinois, and at Indiana all left to play on their schedule. Navy is finally playing in front of the Brigade and needs to make a statement to themselves that they can bounce back after a performance that Coach Johnson called “embarrassing.” Questions get answered Saturday night.

— I’d like to give a quick tip of the cap to the “Voice of the Cardinals,” Morry Mannies. This is his 52nd year calling games for Ball State. That is about as awesome as it gets.

Breaking Down the Train Wreck

Well, that sucked. It was tough to watch Friday night as Rutgers took down Navy, 41-24. It’d be one thing if I felt that Navy gave their best effort and just came up short to a better team. But while Rutgers was clearly the better team, Navy’s effort was far from what it is capable of. At least I hope so.

Anyway, I’m having a hard time writing a summary of the whole thing, so I’m just going to do this in conversation form.

OK, so what happened?

I have no idea. I know what my impressions were from my chair, though. I thought the team looked intimidated. Rutgers shot themselves in the foot with penalties on their first drive, and that one punt was the last time they weren’t in control of the game. The offense came out after that and looked completely unsure of itself, something I’ve never seen in a Paul Johnson team before. They settled down eventually, but not until after they’d given Rutgers some great field position a couple of times. The defense had enough of a challenge ahead of it without the offense giving Rutgers a head start.

The offense really looked like they had mentally checked out. Delay of game penalty? Reggie catching a kickoff on the sideline & falling out of bounds? It just didn’t look like a PJ-coached team out there.

So what was wrong with the defense?

The Rutgers offensive line is what was wrong with the defense. They dominated the game, opening up huge holes for Ray Rice. Rice had almost a 3 yard gain on every play before any Navy defender even touched him. Mike Teel could have stopped to tie his shoe in the middle of a play if he wanted to. Buddy Green would send 5, 6, 7 guys in, but it didn’t matter. We couldn’t stop Rutgers when we rushed 2 guys and we couldn’t stop them when we brought 7. Losing Sovie and Deliz sure didn’t help matters.

So can the defense be fixed?

Probably not.

WTF do you mean, “probably not?”

Look, sometimes you just don’t have the horses to hang with top 15 teams. We play against bigger offensive lines all the time, and “big” doesn’t necessarily mean “good.” But Rutgers wasn’t just big, they were big and very athletic. They pushed our front seven wherever they wanted them to go.

We still missed a lot of tackles, too. You’d hope that would be one thing that’s correctable, but it hasn’t happened so far. The 2005 team also missed a lot of tackles early on, but seemed to get it together by the end of the season. Here’s hoping that history repeats itself.

So are we doomed to get pushed around the rest of the year?

No. Athletic big men are the most rare commodity in football. Not everyone has them. Over the rest of our schedule, only Pitt, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest really have the same type of linemen as Rutgers, with Rutgers being the best of the bunch. I wasn’t sure about Wake Forest, but after watching their game against Nebraska I’m convinced that we’ll have the same kind of problems with them. They were a lot more physical than I thought they’d be.

What about the secondary?

They missed tackles like everyone else, but if you don’t get any pressure on the quarterback it wouldn’t matter if your defensive backfield consisted of Darrell Green, Ronnie Lott, Mel Renfro, and Night Train Lane. Receivers will get open.

We’re scheduled to play Rutgers for a long time. Is it going to be this way for the next seven years?

No. Look at all the freshmen and sophomores we had playing on defense: Nate Frazier, Andy Lark, Kyle Bookhout, Tony Harberer, Ross Pospisil, Matt Nechak, Jesse Iwuji, Wyatt Middleton… By the end of the game we only had two seniors left on the field. The defense will get better. Maybe Ray Rice will turn pro this year too. That’ll help.

Kaipo didn’t look that great.

He sure didn’t, not that anyone else on the offense did either.

If there was one word to describe Kaipo’s performance, it’d be “tentative.” He seemed unsure of himself, which contradicts the complete confidence he shows in practice. Then again, in practice he isn’t constantly running for his life.

This might sound wishy-washy and vague, but Kaipo seems to be struggling to find his identity. Every Navy QB under PJ had a calling card. Candeto was the guy that knew the offense inside & out. Polanco was the big-play guy, especially with his arm. Lamar Owens was the super-quick guy. Brian Hampton was the quarterback who ran like a fullback. Kaipo is…? He certainly has the most straight-ahead speed of the bunch, but only rarely does he really have a chance to show it. He is physically bigger than last year, putting on 10-15 pounds of muscle, but doesn’t seem to have figured out how to apply that strength and run with any power.

Not to mention the interceptions.  

Yeah, they were bad. I don’t think they were all the result of bad decisions, though. The first one was the result of an ridiculously athletic defensive play; if Josh Meek can make that block, the DE is in no position to react to the ball. That play– the quick hitter to the slot– is all about timing, and Kaipo has no choice there but to count on that block being made. He can’t wait to make sure that the DE was cut down. Any QB probably would’ve thrown an INT there. The second interception looked like Kaipo was trying to throw it away, and the ball slipped. The third interception was the worst. It looked like Reggie was open there for a second, but Kaipo held on to the ball too long which gave the defender time to close and make the play. That one hurt. Holding onto the ball too long was something Kaipo did against Temple a couple of times, too. If PJ passes again all year (which isn’t a given the way he sounded in the postgame press conference), that will be something they work on.

Also, does anyone else think that maybe Kaipo has small hands? Is that why his throwing motion is a little awkward? To compensate for not being able to grip the ball well? Just a thought.

So why don’t we sit Kaipo down to give him time to look for that “identity” and bigger hands?

Let’s not be crazy. It was one loss, and it came to a top 15 team. Kaipo had a bad game, but he won’t be the last quarterback to have a bad game against Rutgers this year. Besides, nobody else on offense played well either. You don’t want to bench the whole team, do you?

The problem with being a quarterback is that everyone else’s mistakes end up making you look bad. Missed blocks? QB gets crunched. Can’t get open? QB can’t complete a pass. It all reflects on the QB, whether it’s his fault or not. Yes, Kaipo made his fair share of mistakes too. But there are 22 guys on the field. It doesn’t all boil down to the quarterback. It’d be no different if Jarod Bryant was in the game. You’d just have a different QB in there running for his life.

If you say so. So were the refs as bad as they were against Temple?

Can a blogger be fined by the ACC? No comment.

So what now?

Well, there’s good news and bad news.

I’m a Navy fan, so I *heart* pain. What’s the bad news? 

The bad news is that opposing coaches have a lot of film to look at to help them figure out how to beat the Navy offense.

Then what’s the good news?

The good news is that none of those opposing coaches coach Rutgers, and if they try what Rutgers did they’ll get crushed. This game was so frustrating to watch because Rutgers played a lot of the game in a straight man-to-man defense. With this offense, you PRAY that the defense lines up in man-to-man. When that happens, you motion the slot one way to get his man to follow, then run the play the opposite way. Pull a guard to take care of the extra man and give you a numbers advantage, and you should have only one guy left to cover both the quarterback and the pitch. PJ did just that, but Rutgers was so fast that most of the time the pulling lineman never got to his man. That, and Rutgers did an excellent job shedding cuts the entire game, allowing them to run to the ball. All the Stanford fans who whined about cut blocks two years ago should have watched this game.

What’s the bottom line?

The bottom line is that Navy has now played the best team on its schedule. They fought back from a bad start to make it a game again, but made mistakes and ultimately lost.

If we’re going to beat a top 25 team, it’s going to have to be a complete game. The offense can’t turn the ball over. The defense needs to force punts once in a while so that the offense doesn’t have to be perfect. While nobody left on the schedule is as good as Rutgers, there are still some good teams left to play. We’ll have some more chances to get it right.

Game Week: Rutgers

The Cleveland Clinic has this to say about the condition known as dissociative amnesia:

Dissociative amnesia occurs when a person blocks out certain information, usually associated with a stressful or traumatic event, leaving him or her unable to remember important personal information. With this disorder, the degree of memory loss goes beyond normal forgetfulness and includes gaps in memory for long periods of time or of memories involving the traumatic event.

Because of this affliction, some of you might not remember that Navy actually played Rutgers last year. The 34-0 thumping at the hands of the Scarlet Knights could certainly be classified as a “traumatic event.” Brian Hampton almost lost his leg, Rutgers blocked two punts, and their defense held the Navy offense to only 113 yards rushing. Navy crossed midfield once, getting all the way to the Rutgers 41 in the second quarter. Navy’s longest running play was 20 yards, and it came from a linebacker on a fake punt. So, to state the obvious, Navy’s offense had a bad day. It was clear that after Brian Hampton was hurt, the offense had the life knocked out of it. Nobody knows if Navy would have won the game if Brian was able to play, but I think it’s safe to say that Navy would have at least played a whole lot better. Greg Schiano’s defensive gameplan at that point was to simply blitz the living hell out of Kaipo, and it worked pretty well on the wide-eyed sophomore backup.

Lost in the abject misery of that game is that Navy’s defense actually played pretty well. They held Ray Rice to less than 100 yards rushing and forced three turnovers. Yes, Rutgers scored 34 points, but that was in large part because they got tremendous field position from a lack of Navy offense and two blocked punts. Rutgers scored six times, but the average length of their scoring drives was only 37 yards. Their average starting field position in the game was their own 49 yard line. The Navy defense held Rutgers to 10 points in the first half, but by the end of the game was just worn out from being on the field so much.

The largest crowd in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium history turned out to see last year’s game. I’m not sure how many will show up on Friday, but with the demand for Rutgers tickets lately I’m sure the crowd will also be large, loud, and lively. The game that crowd will see, though, will be a lot different than last year’s Category 5 suck storm.

Ray Rice is good.If you watched Rutgers’ game against Buffalo, you might not agree with me. Yes, Buffalo might be the worst team in I-A, but there was no denying that Rutgers looked good anyway. Ray Rice picked up where he left off last year, running for 184 yards and three touchdowns. Easily the best running back Navy will face this year, Rice looked like the poster boy for a “Don’t let arm tackles happen to you” campaign. As dominant as he was, though, Rice didn’t have the most impressive game. That honor belonged to wide receiver Tiquan Underwood, who did his best Lance Alworth imitation by rolling up 221 receiving yards on 9 catches– in the first half. Underwood had 10 of QB Mike Teel’s 16 completions. Teel has made tremendous progress himself. The junior was a different player over the last three games of 2006. Over the first ten games of the year, Teel threw for 7 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while completing only 52% of his passes. Against Syracuse, West Virginia, and Kansas State, he completed 65% of his passes with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. After throwing for another 328 yards against Buffalo, it looks like Mike Teel hasn’t lost a step from his impressive Texas Bowl performance.

The one thing that struck me about the Rutgers passing game against Buffalo was that out of Teel’s 16 completions, none were to a tight end and only two went to Ray Rice out of the backfield. That’s not the Rutgers offense we’ve seen the last few years with TE Clark Harris and FB Brian Leonard. Navy’s defensive gameplan against Rutgers back then was simple: stop the run, and prevent the long pass play. They did a decent job of both. The problem in those games, though, was that having the defensive backs sit back and prevent the long ball meant that linebackers were often left responsible to cover Harris and Leonard one-on-one underneath. Those two guys were a tough matchup for any linebacker, not just Navy’s, and it showed; Leonard had over 100 all-purpose yards in the 2005 game, while Harris had 5 catches for 63 yards last year. It isn’t always a good idea to read too much into one game, but it seemed that Rutgers’ offense was a lot different against Buffalo without those two players.

Navy’s gameplan this year will be the same. Without Harris and Leonard, the defense actually matches up better against Rutgers in 2007 than in years past. However, matchups don’t mean a thing without execution. Navy missed 28 tackles against Temple. A performance like that against Rutgers will turn the game into a Ray Rice for Heisman infomercial. Was that the real Navy defense we saw last week, or can their mistakes be corrected? If the Navy defense is to have any chance at all in this game, it has to be the latter. Stopping Rice is one key. The other is putting pressure on Mike Teel. Teel showed over the last three games of 2006 that he can’t be counted on to make mistakes on his own anymore. Not coincidentally, Teel wasn’t sacked in any of those games either. Navy’s defense needs to force Teel into making bad decisions; given enough time, Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt will get themselves open.

It’s a tall order, and I’m not completely sure it’s one that Navy will be able to fill. I think Navy’s defense will improve on last week’s effort, but Ray Rice will make you pay for even a few missed tackles. And while the defensive line looked pretty good against an underrated Temple offensive line, Navy lost its best pass-rushing linebacker in recent memory to graduation. Who’s going to fill that role? That question wasn’t answered last week. It’ll have to be if Navy expects to keep the Rutgers offense in check.

On defense, Rutgers has a reputation for being fast and aggressive. They lived up to that reputation against Buffalo. They might have lived up to it a little too well; their aggression bordered on recklessness, as demonstrated by the defense’s four offside penalties. Recklessness might be something you can get away with against Buffalo, but if Rutgers plays that way against a Paul Johnson offense it will be eaten alive. The key to defending option plays is discipline; one missed assignment, and a 3 yard gain becomes a 30 yard gain. Last year, Schiano was able to blitz just about everyone to overwhelm the quarterback. That won’t work this year. Whatever progress Mike Teel has made since the last game, Kaipo has improved even more. The deer in the headlights look is gone, and PJ will be able to exploit the holes left by blitzing linebackers.

PJ’s challenge this week is how to use Rutgers’ speed and aggressiveness against them. That means a lot of counter option plays, play-action passing, and draws, plays that we didn’t really see against Temple. Expect also to see PJ dip into the ol’ bag of tricks, with at least one reverse. If PJ really feels like digging into the playbook, we might also see some screen passes.

Greg Schiano has always made a priority of stopping the fullback against Navy. I suspect that he does this because as long as he can stop the run up the middle, he can rely on the speed of his linebackers and secondary to react, get outside, and limit the damage on the perimeter. The way to beat this is to get the ball to the perimeter faster than defenders can get there. PJ does that by using toss sweeps and quick passes to A-backs and wide recievers. Once the defense adjusts to these plays, PJ can then use toss sweep motion to open up holes for the fullback inside.

Speaking of opening up holes, the offensive line faces a unique challenge this week. For once, Navy won’t be outsized. What the Rutgers d-line lacks in size, though, they more than make up for in speed. DT Eric Foster is only 265 pounds, but he’s some of the fastest 265 pounds you’ll ever see. Quickness is also the strength of the Navy offensive line, and the interior linemen will need it to keep Foster in check. With Antron Harper moving to center, I think they’ll be able to do it. But the challenge doesn’t end there. The biggest problem with a fast defensive line is that if the option is slow to develop, the backside DE can track down the quarterback from behind. It’s a problem we’ve had for years with Notre Dame. The backside tackle’s responsibility is usually just to chip the DE and move on to a linebacker. If the option moves at the speed it’s supposed to, that isn’t a problem. Any hitch in the execution, though, and a fast DE will make you pay. Rutgers does that as well as anybody.

So, will Navy be up to it? Offensively, I think they will. After getting shut down against Connecticut in 2002, Huskies coach Randy Edsall made some comments that hinted that he thought he “solved” Paul Johnson’s offense. PJ never forgets that sort of thing, and he lit up the scoreboard the next time Navy and UConn met. While Greg Schiano hasn’t said anything close to that, the media certainly has. That’s enough to motivate PJ. There’s nothing more exciting than a Paul Johnson gameplan when he has a little extra motivation. On the flip side, the defense has a lot to deal with. I think that they will improve over last week, but the kind of improvement they’d need to shut down Ray Rice is a pretty big jump for one week. I think that the game is going to be a shootout.

The New York media loves hyperbole. Anything good is portrayed as the OMG BEST EVER!!!, while anything that isn’t up to par is treated as a disaster. Rutgers is a solid football team. As such, the local media has them slotted somewhere between LSU and the St. Louis Rams. They aren’t that good. They are the best team on Navy’s schedule, though, and it’s going to take a great game for Navy to beat them.

A great game, but by no means an impossible game.

See you tomorrow!

Back From the Ledge

As I mentioned on Friday, I’m not very much fun to watch a Navy game with. I’m a bit of a melodramatist while the game’s in progress. During last year’s UMass game– a 21-20 win, mind you– I remember thinking that the season was lost and there was no chance that Navy would get to Charlotte for the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Obviously, that wasn’t the case. And despite the irritation I felt at times while watching the Temple game, that probably won’t be the case this year, either.

Something else I remember thinking last year– this time, during the Connecticut game– was that never has such a dominating performance been so frustrating. “Dominating” might not be the first word that comes to mind when you look back at the Temple game, but statistically it was. Navy outgained Temple 439-273, including a 361-74 edge on the ground. Kaipo and Shun White both ran for 100+ yards. Navy only punted once all night, and that was after a 3rd down play that should have been called pass interference. So why didn’t it seem like Navy was dominating as much as the stats reflect?

The obvious answer is that the offense turned the ball over twice. The first fumble was the result of a missed block by Reggie, giving a Temple cornerback a clean shot at Zerb as he caught the pitch from Kaipo. The second fumble was by Adam Ballard, who dropped the ball as he was fighting for extra yards. Both turnovers had a huge impact. Zerb’s fumble was recovered at the Navy 12 and set up a Temple touchdown. Ballard’s fumble was on the first drive of the second half as Navy crossed into Temple territory and led to a field goal for the Owls. Both plays were a huge momentum shift on a rare night where Temple actually had fans at the game.

Joe Bellino said during the radio broadcast that he thought that PJ was holding back the offense. We all know that PJ is very conscious of what he’s putting on film, and with Rutgers coming up this week I’m sure that it’s a possibility. Temple deserves credit, though. They are clearly a better team than they were a year ago. They have more freshmen and sophomores on their two-deep than most schools have on their scout team. Maybe the Mids went into the game thinking that. If that’s the case, Temple played well enough that they won’t make that mistake again. 

OK, that’s enough gushing over a defense that gave up 30 points and 361 rushing yards.

Defensively, Navy didn’t exactly impress. Temple running backs had some sizable holes to run through, and their receivers found themselves in wide open spaces way too often. That’s going to happen occasionally with the soft zone that Navy uses to eliminate big plays. If you’re going to sit back in zone coverage, though, you had better tackle well. On Friday, Navy did not. Particularly annoying was making Temple quarterback Adam DiMichele look like the second coming of Fran Tarkenton. Navy was actually able to get some pressure on him once in a while (thanks in part to an excellent push from Nate “Not Deacon Jones” Frazier), but he either covered himself with lard before the game or Navy just did a horrible job of tackling him. When you play with a “bend but don’t break” philosophy, it’s important to make the most of every sack opportunity. The whole idea behind the Navy defense is that if you limit the big play and make the offense take snap after snap on the way down the field, eventually they’ll make a mistake. If the defense can’t capitalize on those mistakes, they won’t stop anyone. 

All in all, it was a comfortable win, but with enough mistakes that the coaches can have a lot to work on in practice this week. Not that this staff wouldn’t be doing that anyway.

Some odds & ends:

-In the radio pregame show, Navy Deputy A.D. Eric Ruden said that Navy has topped 20,000 season ticket sales. We’ve come a long way since the days of having to use the “Great Annapolis Tailgate” to get people to come to Navy games.

-The officiating in the game was terrible. Bad calls went both ways, but the biggest outrage was watching Temple’s offensive linemen and tight ends literally tackle Navy linebackers all night. Take a look at the two pictures here and here. Do you notice the blockers engaged with arms around the defender, like a big ol’ bear hug? That, ladies and gentlemen, is called “holding.” If we’re taking the same officiating crew with us to Rutgers next week, then we’ve got problems.

-About the only thing as bad as the officiating was whoever was calling the plays for Al Golden’s offense. Temple offensive coordinator George DeLeone is the senior man on their coaching staff, but if he was calling the plays on Friday night they sure didn’t reflect that. When PJ calls his game, he makes it clear that he’ll keep doing the same thing until the defense proves that they can stop it. If Temple had taken the same approach, the game might have been closer. It seemed at times like Temple could have nickel and dimed their way down the field all night with their short passing game. But as soon as they’d get a little momentum that way, Temple would run some kind of sweep or swing pass or something that Navy would promptly stuff. It isn’t always the players that make mistakes when you limit big plays and force the offense to make long drives down the field. Sometimes it’s the coaches.

Birddog Game Balls

-Paul Johnson: PJ was given an actual game ball for his 100th win. He’s getting a Birddog game ball for outcoaching Al Golden so badly that it’s almost embarassing. It wasn’t just playcalling, it was game management. The best example came in the 2nd quarter. On 4th & 1 from the Navy 37, Johnson left the offense on the field. Golden was caught off guard, and had to call his final timeout of the half to set his defense. Not having a timeout left had a huge impact on Navy’s next drive, when Golden was unable to challenge a very questionable pass from Kaipo to Zerb for a 21-yard gain. That play put the ball on the Temple 30, and the drive ended in a Navy touchdown.

Golden’s staff is one of the youngest in I-A. On Friday, it showed.

-Greg Sudderth: I like giving a game ball to the guy who throws the best block, and this week it’s Greg. If he’s always as angry as he looked when he mauled some poor Temple defender on Kaipo’s 44-yard TD run in the first quarter, then I hope he seeks counseling. After the season.

-Shun White: It isn’t just that he ran for 122 yards; it’s how he did it. Shun averaged 15 yards a carry by combining power and some awesome moves. Shun knew when it was time to run through guys and when it was time to run around them. Defenses are going to key in on Reggie and Adam Ballard this year, and Shun’s going to get the ball because of it. He made the most of it on Friday, and that’s a good sign.

-Matt Harmon: Matt had three field goals, including a 43-yarder and a 23-yarder from a tough angle. His kickoffs were pretty good too, including one touchback.

-Matt Wimsatt: Seven tackles, a sack, and a game-ending interception. That’s a solid night’s work.