The way Navy’s defense has played this year, one mistake by the offense has been enough to put a game out of reach. Three mistakes, and it’s sure to result in a blowout. After Navy’s offense gave up three turnovers on Saturday afternoon, that’s exactly what happened. A homecoming crowd of nearly 37,000 saw Kenny Moore catch 15 passes for 181 yards as Wake Forest thumped Navy, 44-24. The loss, which brought Navy’s record down to 4-3, was the result of poor play in all three phases of the game for the Mids. We’ll start with the offense.

Navy had rallied back from a 14-3 deficit to take a 17-14 lead after a Shun White touchdown run in the second quarter. Wake tied it up with a field goal on their next drive, and Navy took posession on their own 20 following the kickoff. It was at that point that everything pretty much went to hell. On the second play of the drive, Kaipo had barely turned around after carrying out his fake on a counter option when he was met by a blitzing Aaron Curry. The force of Curry’s accelerating 240-pound frame was delivered directly to Kaipo’s face, whipping the quarterback’s neck back and knocking him out of the game. Jarod Bryant stepped in and was promptly blindsided on the next play as he brought his arm back to pass, causing a fumble that was scooped up and returned for a Wake Forest touchdown.

I wrote earlier that the key to Navy’s first two losses this year was turnovers. The third loss was no exception; three Navy turnovers turned into 17 Wake Forest points. The normally sure-handed Eric Kettani fumbled on the Wake 24 as Navy was driving in the third quarter. Jarod Bryant fumbled a snap on the next drive, giving Wake Forest the ball at the Navy 39. And just like that, a game that looked like it was on its way to 34-31 turned into a 44-24 debacle.

Kaipo’s injury was the key play of the game. Navy had three scores on its first three posessions with Kaipo at the helm, but managed only one more (along with three turnovers) the rest of the way. The offense is just a more efficient machine with Kaipo in charge. That’s not a slap at Jarod Bryant as much as it is the reality of developing quarterbacks in this offense. Time and repetition mean everything, and Navy fans have been spoiled with a long line of senior quarterbacks ready to take over year after year. Kaipo isn’t a senior, but the experience that he already has in this offense is comparable to the experience that Navy’s previous senior signal callers have had. While Jarod is a classmate of Kaipo’s, he just doesn’t have the same foundation in the offense, and it shows.

Jarod gets a lot of praise for being a “decisive” runner; Scott Zolak wouldn’t stop using that word during the CSTV broadcast. People say that Jarod appears to be more confident cutting upfield. It’s an illusion. The reality is that Jarod looks decisive because he doesn’t make reads very well. Contrary to what you’re supposed to do when running the option, Jarod decides where he’s going to go with the ball before it’s snapped. If his pre-snap decision happens to take what the defense ends up giving him, then it looks like a “decisive read.” Unfortunately, for every “decisive read,” there’s a play that gets stuffed because the ball went to the wrong option. Paul Johnson recognizes this and does his best to call plays where Jarod can succeed. Think back to Jarod’s biggest plays this season. How many were on predetermined carries? The comeback against Duke was engineered using QB draws. Yesterday, the big plays on the opening drive of the second half came on the midline option, which is the easiest read for the quarterback to make (he only has one key). But you can only draw from that well so many times. Calling these plays can give a defense a different look for a drive or two at the end of the game, but defenses will be able to adjust if they have a whole half to do so. And that’s exactly what Wake Forest did.

It isn’t just in the option game that Jarod is deciding where to go before the snap; he did it in the passing game as well. On two occasions Jarod threw to a double-covered slotback on a wheel route when there was a receiver running wide open on a post pattern over the middle. Jarod never made the progression to his secondary receiver. In fairness, getting hit from behind in the second quarter probably didn’t make Jarod comfortable standing and looking for too long. Nevertheless, those became missed opportunities.

We’ve seen these kinds of struggles from non-senior quarterbacks under Paul Johnson before. Craig Candeto was far more effective in 2003 than he was the previous year. Aaron Polanco looked shaky in his one start in 2002 before stepping in two years later and leading Navy to a 10-2 record. Brian Hampton had a lot of the same problems with pre-determining ballcarriers and receivers before he took over the offense in 2006 and led them to 400 rushing yards in his first game. Jarod is progressing the same way that his predecessors did, but Kaipo’s injury compressed that timeline.

Turnovers were only the beginning of Navy’s problems. Defensively, nobody could stop Kenny Moore. Nobody could get to Riley Skinner, either. As a result, Wake Forest was 10 for 14 on 3rd down conversions. Four of those conversions came on passes to Moore. For the second week in a row Navy’s defense was able to stop the run once in a while on first and second down, only to give up a first down on 3rd and long. Navy had a chance to stop Wake Forest on each of its first three scoring drives, putting the Deacs in 3rd & 6 or more 4 times. Combine the 17 points scored on those drives with the 17 points that Wake scored off of Navy turnovers, and you account for nearly all of their scoring in the game.

The run defense has been inconsistent all year, but in the last couple of games they’ve been able to make a play here and there. Irv Spencer had a season-high 3 tackles for a loss this week. But when those plays set up a 3rd & long, the complete lack of a pass rush gives opposing quarterbacks all the time in the world to make a play, both through the air and with their legs. Navy has never exactly been a sack factory, but averaging less than one sack every two games is insanely low even by Navy standards. It’s especially disappointing given the high hopes that Navy fans had for Nate Frazier and Andy Lark. Physically, they remind you of Babatunde Akingbemi. Yet they haven’t looked like him on the field. Or have they? Akingbemi’s 2004 season was a thing of beauty, but he wasn’t nearly as effective as a junior in 2003. Having a big body is one thing; learning to use it is another. Akingbemi didn’t become a good nose guard until he refined his technique. I suspect the same can be said for Nate and Andy; they really aren’t that far removed from playing games in high school or prep school where they could get away with just overpowering their opponents with sheer physical superiority. That doesn’t fly in Division I football. Like Jarod Bryant, they are probably both a year away from being truly effective. Unfortunately, that doesn’t do this year’s defense much good.

Something else that isn’t doing the Navy defense much good is Navy’s special teams– or more specifically, the kick return coverage. Between Navy’s turnovers and Kevin Marion’s kickoff returns, Wake Forest enjoyed excellent field position all afternoon. That set the defense up for failure. In fact, the defense actually played reasonably well when they didn’t start a drive with their backs against the wall. Wake Forest had 10 drives in the game. Five of those drives started on their own 40 yard line or better. One of those drives was at the end of the game as Jim Grobe ran out the clock. The other four resulted in 28 points. Wake Forest had 5 drives where they had to drive 70 yards or more, and those 5 drives yielded only 9 points. When they were given some field to work with, the defense did its job. It’s hard to believe when you see 44 points on the scoreboard, but the defense was actually a little bit better this week. Not good by any stretch of the imagination… But better.

That’s a mighty thin silver lining, though. It was an ugly game, and Navy can’t afford to have many more like it.

Turnovers killed us.
Losing Kaipo didn’t help.
I’ve had better days.

When Navy and Wake Forest square off on Saturday afternoon, it will be a clash of the unlikeliest of titans.

OK, so maybe “titans” is a stretch. But it will be a matchup of two 4-2 teams that are enjoying the kind of success that most people once thought was impossible at either school.

Navy fans are familiar with the challenges that our coaches have to overcome in order to produce a winner. Unfortunately, we are also familiar with season after season of not being able to do so. In many ways, Wake Forest fans can say the same thing. While they aren’t a military school that has to sell a recruit on plebe summer, a 5-year military commitment, and height and weight restrictions, Wake Forest is a small school that plays in a conference where its academic standards put it at a competitive disadvantage. In the 20 years before Jim Grobe was hired, Wake Forest had only 5 winning seasons, and only two of those ended in a trip to a bowl game. Their last conference championship had come in 1970, and even that team didn’t get a bowl invitation, finishing only 6-5.

In 2001, Wake Forest plucked Jim Grobe away from the University of Ohio. Grobe immediately led the Demon Deacons to two straight winning seasons, including a dominating  victory over Oregon in the 2002 Seattle Bowl. Then, after a few disappointing years, the impossible dream happened: Wake Forest won the ACC.

It isn’t hyperbole to call it a miracle. Stories like the 2006 Wake Forest football team just don’t happen. Schools that actually make their players go to class aren’t supposed to blow out Florida State on the way to an Orange Bowl berth. Teams that lose as many key offensive players to injury as they did aren’t supposed to win 11 games. But they did. And now, the 2007 Wake Forest team is out to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke. If you watched their game against Florida State last week, you’d know that they definitely weren’t. The Deacs lost their first two games of the year to Boston College and Nebraska, but have since won four straight. Offense has been a bit of a struggle for them, but they’ve been bolstered by an excellent defense. During their 4-game winning streak, Wake’s defense has surrendered a scant 322 yards per game and forced 10 turnovers.

Navy’s worst offensive performance this year came against Rutgers. Rutgers wasn’t the biggest defense in the world, but they had tremendous speed. The Scarlet Knights were able to use that speed to not only stretch out option plays to the sideline, but to shoot gaps and penetrate into the backfield. Rutgers’ speed and athleticism were also factors in Kaipo’s three interceptions, as Rutgers made plays in coverage and applied pressure in the pocket. The Wake Forest defense has all the same speed as Rutgers, and is even a bit bigger with players like the 6-2, 326 lb. Boo Robinson at defensive tackle. The play of Robinson and the rest of the defensive line has freed up linebackers Aaron Curry and Stanley Arnoux to combine for 69 tackles, including 9 for a loss.

Both of Wake’s safeties are excellent in run support. Free safety Chip Vaughn leads the team in tackles. It’s usually bad news when a safety is your team’s leading tackler because that means that your defense is consistently having to make tackles 5-10 yards upfield. That isn’t the case with Wake Forest. The Deacs play a very aggressive defense and don’t hesitate to let their safeties hover around the line of scrimmage. They can do this because they boast a pair of excellent cornerbacks in Brandon Ghee and Alphonso Smith. Smith has 4 interceptions and leads the team with 7 pass breakups and two forced fumbles. The confidence that the Wake staff has in these corners allows them to sell out against the run. Last week, Florida State essentially gave up trying to run the ball against them; the Seminoles were held to only 47 yards on 24 attempts. Florida State. This defense is good.

Against Navy, Wake’s safeties are most likely going to play as aggressively as they have all year. This can work to Navy’s advantage in the play-action passing game. But the more they pass, the more the Mids will have to deal with defensive end Jeremy Thompson. As fast as he is big (6-5, 264), Thompson already has 6 sacks on the year. The combination of aggressive run support, excellent cornerbacks, and QB pressure has allowed Wake Forest to force 18 turnovers, good for 11th in the country.

That’s a concern. The difference between Navy’s 1-2 start and their current 3-game winning streak has been turnovers. Navy had 7 turnovers in its first three games, but only 1 since then. Because Navy’s opponents have scored on what seems like every posession, the turnovers put the offense off the pace. And a quick look at the Wake Forest offense reveals that their Navy counterparts are going to be pressured to score a lot of points yet again.

Paul Johnson described the Deacs’ offense as “Air Force at warp speed.” Considering that Wake Forest is far more athletic than the Air Force offense that rolled up 470 yards against Navy, that’s a scary thought.  Like Air Force, Wake Forest makes extensive use of misdirection and play action. Wide receiver Kenny Moore leads the team with 886 all-purpose yards. Pressed into service as a running back last year due to injuries, Moore is still used extensively in the running game much in the same way that Air Force uses Chad Hall. One of the running backs whose injury forced Moore to change positions last year is Micah Andrews, who returns this year after an ACL tear. Andrews shares the backfield with the lightning-fast freshman, Josh Adams. Adams was the star of the Florida State game, rushing for 140 yards including an 83-yard burst up the sideline for a touchdown. If Navy tackles as poorly as they did against Pittsburgh, Adams will make them pay. Ketric Buffin picked a bad week to get hurt.

Moore is Wake Forest’s leading receiver, followed by tight end John Tereshinski. Wake Forest rotates Tereshinski and Zac Selmon at the TE position, with Selmon being the better blocker. Tereshinski has excellent hands and good speed for a TE, and has 19 catches so far this year. With the soft zone coverage that Navy uses on defense, Tereshinski will have plenty of chances to make plays underneath. That is, if Riley Skinner can get him the ball.

Skinner is a bit of an enigma this year. He’s completed 70% of his passes, but has also thrown 9 interceptions in 4 games (Skinner separated his shoulder against Boston College and sat out two games). The Wake offense as a whole is 98th in the country in turnovers with 17. Of course, playing aggressive defenses like Florida State, Maryland, and Boston College doesn’t help. Does Wake make mistakes on their own, or have they been pressured into them? Navy’s chances might depend on the answer.

Wake Forest’s speed on defense makes it important for Navy to establish the fullback this week. If linebackers respect the fullback dive, they will be slower to react to plays moving outside. The last time Navy and Wake Forest played, that’s exactly what the Mids were able to do. Mike Brimage ran for 171 yards and a touchdown back in 2002 against a bowl-bound Demon Deacon team. Conventional wisdom states that Jim Grobe’s familiarity with option offenses should give him a leg up on defending Navy, but that wasn’t the case back then as Navy ran for 317 yards. Navy had a 27-23 lead going into Wake’s final drive but couldn’t hold on as Fabian Davis put the Deacs on top with 53 seconds left in the game. Wake won that day, but Navy’s offensive performance served as a springboard into their game two weeks later against Army.

This a much better Wake Forest team than the one Navy lined up against in 2002. Then again, Navy is better too, at least offensively. Better, but good enough? We’ll find out.

Zach over at The Old Gold & Blog had a few questions about Navy, which I was happy to answer. You can read my answers here. Be sure to say hi.

I can’t take much more of this. Someone mentioned on the Navy Sports Magazine Show last night that Navy has become the most exciting team in football. That’s probably good for ratings, but not so good for my health. Watching the game on Wednesday night, I felt nauseous and light-headed. My arms fell asleep, too; I think that was from locking my elbows and clenching my chair for 4 hours. I’m so wrapped up in Navy football that it’s actually physically affecting me. Sometimes I think I really need to re-examine my priorities.

Then Rashawn King makes a clutch play, and I think, “Nah.”

Navy got their first overtime win in school history on Wednesday night, holding on to beat Pitt 48-45. The Navy offense fell 3 yards short of another 500-yard performance, cranking out 331 yards on the ground and adding 166 yards through the air on 9-for-14 passing. The defense continued to struggle, giving up 418 yards and 45 points to a Pitt offense that had been miserable through 5 games. But like they had done against Air Force and Duke, the defense made plays when they had to at the end of the game.

It would be nice if the defense made those kinds of plays in the second or third quarter rather than waiting until the fourth quarter, or in this case, the second overtime. The hole that has been burning in my stomach since August 31, which I have now named The Nate Frazier Memorial Ulcer, might then be a bit smaller.

Actually, the most frustrating thing about this game was that the defense was able to make some plays, but still couldn’t get off the field. On Pitt’s first scoring drive, Navy had the Panthers in a 3rd and 12 from their own 35 after Chris Kuhar-Pitters batted down a Pat Bostick pass at the line of scrimmage. But Pitt RB LeSean McCoy, who would go on to run for 165 yards and three touchdowns, was able to pick up 11 yards on the next play to set up 4th and 1. Pitt converted easily. Later in the same drive, Navy had an opportunity to hold Pitt to a field goal after stuffing McCoy on 1st and 2nd down and forcing 3rd and 10. On that play, Irv Spencer came in unblocked on a blitz from the offense’s right side, forcing Bostick to have to throw to his safety valve, TE Nate Byham. Byham appeared to be stopped 6 yards short of the first down, but Ketric Buffin and Jesse Iwuji both were unable to bring him down, and Byham broke free for 10 extra yards to give Pitt a first and goal.

Navy’s special teams didn’t do the defense any favors, either. On Pitt’s next drive, Navy held Pitt to what should have been a 3 & out. But since Pitt started its drive from the Navy 44 yard line after a 45-yard kickoff return, head coach Dave Wannstedt didn’t have to think twice about going for it on 4th & 2. Pitt picked up the first down and went on to score. That wasn’t the only time that a kickoff return put the Navy defense in a bad position. In the 3rd quarter, another 45-yard kickoff return put Pitt in Navy territory again to start their drive. Navy was able to hold Pitt to a field goal. If that drive had started at, say, the Pitt 30, could that field goal have been a punt instead? Finally, after Wyatt Middleton made a tremendous tackle to stop Pitt WR Oderick Turner on 3rd down in the first overtime, Nate Frazier made what almost became the most inexcusable offsides penalty in history. All’s well that ends well I suppose, but I didn’t have a very good feeling about things ending well at the time.

For all of the problems that the Navy defense has– and great googly moogly there are a lot– effort and heart aren’t among them. Honestly, I thought that Navy was toast after Frazier’s penalty. I thought that it would just be too deflating. But thanks to Rashawn King, with an assist to some baffling play calling by Dave Wannstedt, Navy’s defense came through in the end. Unless there’s some kind of miracle, though, we aren’t always going to be so fortunate.

I was a little disappointed in Buddy Green’s game plan. In the week leading up to the game, Paul Johnson had mentioned that he expected Pitt to throw to the flat a lot since Navy has had so much trouble defending it lately. That’s exactly what Pitt did. Bostick averaged less than 10 yards per completion, going 20-28 for 191 yards. Since the coaches knew what was coming, I wish they would have put more of a priority on defending it. I understand that our usual gameplan is to defend the deep ball and prevent the big play. It’s a smart philosophy, but there are situations where I think we would be better served by adjusting it. Wednesday night was one of those situations. Playing against a freshman quarterback, I thought that Navy should have taken away the easy throws underneath and forced Bostick to throw the deep ball. All those easy completions just built up Bostick’s confidence. The one time he did try to go deep, it was intercepted. The deep ball is just a tougher play to make, and forcing a freshman to make those plays would put some pressure on him and maybe cause a mistake or two. This won’t be Navy’s last game against a freshman quarterback, so maybe the coaches will try it later in the season. Like I’ve said before, it isn’t like things can get much worse on defense.

On the other hand, it’s hard to imagine things getting much better on offense. Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, despite his rather harsh self-evaluation (“For me personally, I played a terrible game”), was tremendous. Kaipo had yet another 100 yard rushing game, running for 122 yards and a TD. He added 166 yards and 2 TDs through the air, but it isn’t the statistical dominance that is so impressive to me. It’s his mastery of the offense. Kaipo says he missed a lot of reads– and after watching the game again I noticed a few more than I did on Wednesday– but for every read he missed, he made a great play. My favorite was Navy’s second touchdown of the night– Kaipo’s first TD pass. Navy ran that same play against Rutgers, except with Reggie coming from the other side of the formation. That night, the play ended in one of Rutgers’ three INTs. On Wednesday, Kaipo threw to a leaping Reggie Campbell once again, only this time his pass was perfectly placed above the reaching arms of the defensive back and into the hands of an airborne Campbell. Affirmation, baby.

Speaking of Rutgers, I really thought that Pitt was going to come out with the same defensive gameplan that the Scarlet Knights did against Navy back in week two. My rationale was that I thought there might have been some film sharing between the two Big East programs. After Wannstedt challenged Pat Bostick to score 28 points, it sort of reinforced my theory since Navy scored 24 in Piscataway. Man, was I ever wrong. Rutgers attacked like mad, while Pitt was content to play a far more passive game. I should’ve known after Wannstedt said of Navy before the game, “If they can keep the ball for eight minutes and run 15 plays, I’ll be the happiest guy in the world. That’s how you defeat this offense, you make them earn every yard and eliminate the big plays.” Bill Wagner reacted to that comment on his blog: “With all due respect, I think Pittsburgh will be in big trouble tonight if Navy puts together eight-minute, 15-play drives. I have watched this team run the triple-option the past five years and I can assure you the Midshipmen almost always win when they mount those types of long, clock-grinding drives.” Wagner 1, Wannstedt 0. Navy ended up having 5 drives of 10 plays or more. Maybe Wannstedt would have had better luck with that strategy last year. This year, Kaipo is seasoned enough that he isn’t going to make very many mistakes without being forced.

One of the most entertaining things about watching a Paul Johnson-coached offense is seeing the constant adjustments over the course of a game. Against Pittsburgh, the offense relied heavily on two particular plays that we’ve seen only sparingly through the first 5 games: the FB trap, and the counter option.

The Panthers’ sit-back-and-wait style made the FB trap a no-brainer. There are several different reads that the read key can present to the quarterback on a triple option play. One of them is called a “squat.” Squatting means that the player that the QB is reading doesn’t commit to either the fullback or the quarterback. Instead, as the quarterback is reading the defender, he’s reading the quarterback right back; he reacts to whatever the quarterback decides to do with the ball. That’s when Paul Johnson calls the fullback trap. On the trap play, the offense shows an option look, sending the slotback into tail motion and sending the fullback to mesh with the quarterback. The read key sees the option look and squats like he had been doing on the other option plays. But this isn’t an option play, and when he sees the give to the fullback and moves to make the tackle, he gets smacked by a pulling guard and the fullback runs free.

Paul Johnson talks a lot about the importance of establishing the fullback. The reason he says that is because when the fullback is effective, it sets up other elements of the offense. One of those elements is the counter option. The more effective the fullback is in the triple option, the more the backside 5-technique (DL lined up on the outside shoulder of the tackle) is tempted to cheat inside to stop him. When Coach Monken notices that happening from his bird’s eye view in the press box, he passes that to Coach Johnson, who then calls a counter option play. The play starts with the playside slotback going into tail motion in order to give the defense the look that the play is going in the opposite direction. The playside 5-technique cheats inside to stop what he thinks will be a fullback dive. By cheating inside, he becomes easier for the pulling guard to seal off from the outside. At the snap, the motion slotback reverses direction, the backside guard pulls to block the cheating 5-technique, and the quarterback fakes to the fullback before pivoting and reversing direction himself. The 5-technique would have had responsibility for the C gap, but he’s being blocked– leaving the perimeter open. That’s what happened on Navy’s longest run of the night, Kaipo’s 37-yard counter option keeper in the 3rd quarter.

The offense is doing great things, but isn’t perfect. Navy had a chance to break the game open at the end of the third quarter following Rashawn King’s interception. Up 35-31, Navy could have stretched the lead to two scores; instead, they turned the ball over on downs when a Greg Veteto fake punt attempt fell short. Capitalizing on turnovers has been a weakness for the offense this year. Navy’s defense has forced 8 turnovers, but the offense has only scored 6 points off of them all year. The defense’s struggles make it even more important for the offense to capitalize when they do make a play.

But, like Paul Johnson said after the Duke game, it’s easier to work on those problems after a win. And what a win it was. Yes, Pitt has problems, but even flawed BCS teams are still BCS teams. This was definitely a case of Navy winning a game that it wasn’t supposed to, at least on paper. It feels good. Now they have to do it all over again next week.

Extra Points

— If there’s one play that Kaipo seems to be struggling with, it’s the quarterback draw. Paul Johnson has a couple of different QB draw plays that he likes to call, but his favorite is the fake rollout & reverse back the other way– the play that set up the winning drive against Air Force in 2004. Aaron Polanco and Lamar Owens were both very good at running this play. The difference between how they would run it and how Kaipo runs it is footwork. Kaipo rolls out, stops, plants his feet, and changes direction. Polanco and Owens didn’t do that. They would roll out, but instead of planting their feet, they’d make a big loop and circle back in the other direction. Looping back instead of stopping allowed them to maintain some forward momentum, which is something that would be particularly beneficial to Kaipo since he needs a little time to get his long strides churning at full speed.

— Down 38-35 with just under 5 minutes left in the game, Paul Johnson faced a 4th & 3 from the Pitt 19. I thought he would go for it, since it didn’t seem likely that Navy would get the ball back if they kicked a field goal and gave the ball back to Pitt. Johnson opted for the field goal, and the Navy defense held on Pitt’s ensuing drive. I suppose that this is why Paul Johnson is a well-paid football coach, and I am just a random blogger on the innurnets.

Birddog Game Balls

— Reggie Campbell: Reggie had three TDs on Wednesday, but that isn’t why he’s getting a game ball. Reggie’s getting a game ball for his kickoff returns. After the game, Dave Wannstedt said, “Our field position didn’t give us much of a chance. With a game like this, the plan is to make them go 80, 90 yards and we didn’t get that done.” They didn’t get it done because of Reggie Campbell. Reggie had two returns, one for 30 yards and one for 60. Pitt tried to kick the ball away from him, and they ended up kicking it out of bounds twice– letting Navy start at the 35. Field position means everything in football, and Reggie Campbell set the offense up for success.

— Tyree Barnes: Navy didn’t score on either of the drives on which Tyree had a catch, and that’s too bad. His three receptions shouldn’t be overlooked. He set up Navy’s field goal attempt at the end of the first half on a 37-yard catch with a defensive back draped all over him. It should have been called defensive pass interference. He also had a great catch on Navy’s last drive in regulation, stretching to get his toes down on a sideline reception.

— The offensive line. Every friggin’ one of them. I’ll write more about that this week.

— The mid at the game who made the “I Hate Touchdowns From Pitt” sign. Best sign ever.

Navy wins the game.
Offense is a juggernaut.
Defense? Just enough.

It was 120 years ago that Robert Louis Stevenson sat in his bed and wrote his novella, Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. A vivid and eerie allegory depicting one man’s internal conflict between good and evil, some scholars and critics have suggested that the book is about the struggles of people with bipolar disorder. There are others who say that it represents various social and political schisms from the 19th century Scotland of Stevenson’s youth. Both groups have it all wrong. Stevenson was a true visionary, as he clearly meant for his story to be a symbol of the 2007 University of Pittsburgh football team.

Like Stevenson’s Doctor Jekyll and his alter ego, Pitt football is a story of contrasts this year. They won their first two games in convincing fashion. They have lost their last two just as convincingly. Their defense is ranked 9th in the country, while their offense is ranked 103rd. This dichotomy has led to a 2-3 record and a football team that needs a win over Navy to get to .500 at the season’s midpoint. With the bulk of their Big East schedule remaining– including games against West Virginia, South Florida, Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati– one figures that this game is a must-win for Pitt if they want to have any prayer of getting to a bowl game.

Pitt’s fast start and subsequent slide can be attributed in large part to its schedule. After opening with wins against Eastern Michigan and Grambling, Pitt has since gone on a three game losing streak at the hands of Michigan State, UConn, and Virginia– teams that are a combined 14-3 so far. The schedule, however, is only part of the story. The team, particularly on offense, has been hit hard by injuries.

With the departure of quarterback Tyler Palko, most people expected the Pitt offense to be a little less potent this year, at least in the early going. Unfortunately for the Panthers, losing Palko was only the beginning. Before the season even started, Pitt lost its best returning offensive player. Wide receiver Derek Kinder, a Biletnikoff Award semifinaslist and all-conference selection a year ago, tore an ACL in fall practice. Palko’s successor, junior Bill Stull, injured the thumb on his throwing hand in the season opener and has been out ever since. Starting right tackle Jason Pinkston suffered a shoulder injury against Michigan State and has been lost for the year.

Stull’s injury has been particularly hard on the Pitt offense. His replacements have been a pair of freshmen, and both have struggled. Kevan Smith started the first three games after Stull went down. After throwing for 202 yards and a touchdown on 15-22 passing vs. Grambling, Smith was dreadful against Michigan State, throwing for only 85 yards and two interceptions. The following week, Smith was 3-9 for only 29 yards and an interception in the first half against Connecticut, and was benched in favor of Pat Bostick. While trying to overcome a 27-7 halftime deficit, Bostick threw for 230 yards as Pitt opened up the offense in the second half, but his three interceptions kept the Panthers from mounting any real comeback. The next week, Bostick went 18-31 for 181 yards and a touchdown, but it wasn’t enough as Pitt gave up 27 points in the first quarter.

Playing a couple of freshman quarterbacks has forced Pitt offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh to call games very conservatively. Despite trailing 27-0 after one quarter against Virginia, Bostick only threw 3 passes in the first half. To compensate, Cavanaugh has tinkered with some ways to get the ball to freshman running back LeSean McCoy more often. McCoy is second only to Rutgers’ Ray Rice as the best running back that Navy will see this year, and is joined in the backfield by another talented runner, junior LaRod Stephens-Howling.  To get both runners onto the field at the same time, Cavanaugh has experimented with the “Wildcat” formation that puts McCoy at quarterback, inspired by the Arkansas offense and the way they use Darren McFadden. It’s had only limited success. Without much concern for passes going over their heads, teams have stopped the Pitt offense by keying in on McCoy. Given that, McCoy’s 100 rushing yards per game average is a real testament to his talent.

The conservative game plans appear to be changing this week. Cavanaugh has told the Pittsburgh media that against Navy, he’ll loosen the reins on his young quarterback a little bit. “We’re certainly not going to let him cut loose and air it out on every down,” Cavanaugh told the Pittsburgh Past-Gazette. “But there’s going to be a better balance, hopefully, in the play-calling. So I’ve got to do a better job of that, and as long as he’s making good decisions and getting completions, we’ll try to be a little more balanced.”

If I was an offensive coordinator with a freshman quarterback, I too would probably choose the week I was playing the team ranked last in both pass efficiency defense and sacks to let my quarterback stretch his legs a little.

So balance looks like the name of the game this week for the Pitt offense. A little less McCoy, a little more Bostick. Navy has struggled defensively against just about anything that’s been thrown at it so far this year, so it doesn’t look like Pitt will be hurting either way. My guess for the Pitt gameplan is to start by running McCoy, setting up easy play action passes and allowing Bostick to gain some confidence. As long as Pitt isn’t falling behind, Bostick will keep passing. If the offense starts to struggle a little, then expect to see it get jumpstarted by heavy doses of LeSean McCoy running behind an offensive line that averages 6’4″, 315. No matter what kind of problems Pitt has had offensively this year, this game will be a huge challenge for the Navy defense.

The Pitt defense hasn’t been without injury either. Starting defensive tackle Gus Mustakas tore an ACL in the Grambling game and is out for the year. Pitt has been able to recover, though, with a trio of 290-pound DTs to replace him. Linebacker Scott McKillop has been outstanding anchoring the middle of Pitt’s 4-3 scheme, leading the Big East in tackles with 11.4 per game. He had 17 against Michigan State and another 15 against Virginia. But while McKillop has played well, the defense as a whole hasn’t lived up to their lofty ranking in the last two games, giving up 78 points. Turnovers by the offense and bad field position have a lot to do with that, but so do 3rd down conversions; Pitt has slipped to 60th in the country in 3rd down defense. In their last game against Virginia, the Panthers allowed them to convert on six of their first eight 3rd down attempts– no small factor in the Cavaliers building a 27-0 lead. Could this be indicative of a lack of discipline? Pitt hasn’t given up a 100-yard rusher this year, but stopping the average college running game is a lot different than stopping the triple option. It’s only a small weakness in the armor of what looks like a solid defense.

For Navy to win this game, the Pitt offense needs to make some mistakes. That makes it crucial for Navy to prevent the big play. Getting pressure on Bostick might be a tall order for the Navy defense, but the freshman QB should make a mistake or two on his own if he’s forced to take enough snaps.

I know that Pitt is having problems right now, but don’t underestimate how tough it is to take on a BCS team. If Stanford’s win over USC teaches us anything, it’s that even struggling BCS teams have enough talent to upset the #1 team in the nation if they play hard and limit their mistakes. There’s plenty of talent waiting for the Mids in Pittsburgh. A win over Pitt would be a major accomplishment for this Navy team.