I had a wrestling coach in high school that absolutely hated the phrase, “You can’t win them all.” At the end of practice, usually while he was running us into the ground, he’d yell out something along the lines of, “What do you mean you can’t win them all? If you always work harder than the other guy and always wrestle smarter than the other guy, then why can’t you win them all?” It was probably the most important thing that I was taught in high school, and pretty much changed my approach to life. The lesson has served me well, but it makes it hard for me to look on the Air Force game with that c’est la vie attitude when my blood pressure would probably benefit from it.

Continue reading “AIR FORCE 14, NAVY 6” →

In the 2006 season opener against East Carolina, quarterback Brian Hampton carried the ball 34 times for 149 yards as the Mids defeated the Pirates, 28-23. ECU made an effort to take away the slotbacks in the triple option, stepping into pitching lanes and even batting down a couple. The defense forced the quarterback and fullback to carry the load for the offense, with the two positions accounting for 52 of the team’s 70 carries. After spending all afternoon running between the tackles, Paul Johnson likened the offense’s day to “playing in a phone booth.”

If that was playing in a phone booth, then Saturday’s 16-13 victory over Air Force might be described as playing like the offense was trapped at the bottom of a well. Ricky Dobbs and fullbacks Vince Murray and Alex Teich combined for 52 of Navy’s 56 carries as the Mids were held to 209 yards of total offense. After Dobbs’ touchdown run on the Mids’ first drive, Navy failed to get a first down on seven of its next ten possessions. There came a point in the second half where I started getting worried that watching the game any longer might turn me into a pillar of salt. WHATEVER COACH JASPER DID TO OFFEND YOU, KARMA, SURELY THAT DEBT IS NOW PAID.

We’ll get to that, but first let’s take a look at what I said after last year’s Air Force game:

Those of us who have been Navy fans all our lives might see things a little bit differently. There was a time when the idea of beating Air Force with half our offense tied behind our back was completely unfathomable. Air Force used to be so talented relative to Navy that only a flawless effort in every phase of the game would give the Mids a chance. Now, the tables have turned. Not only did Navy win with a watered-down offense, but they scored 33 points! For me, Navy’s victory on Saturday was nothing short of brilliant.

Other than the whole 33 points thing, my feelings towards the 2009 game are nearly identical. Yes, the offense was lousy, but you can’t lose sight of the big picture here. Navy beat Air Force for the seventh straight year. If you’re new to the program, or only started caring when the team became good, or if you only go to Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium to drink wine at a tailgater and complain about the length of TV timeouts… Well, maybe that’s not enough for you. The rest of us are thrilled. In the 21 years prior to the current Navy winning streak, the Mids beat Air Force twice. Do you think in those years anyone would be turning up their noses at an ugly, 16-13 win? Hell no. Yes, Navy is a better team now, and expectations are higher. That doesn’t mean that anyone needs to start worrying about style points when it comes to service academy victories. I understand that every game is played in the context of a larger season, and that we all want to see various problems addressed. But if your first instinct after such a dramatic win over a service academy rival is to complain about the offense, then you have completely forgotten what it means to be a Navy fan. If I ever reach the point where I take wins over Army and Air Force for granted, feel free to kick me in the face.

The shame in all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over the offense is that it’s distracting from what should be the focus, which is a dominating performance by the defense. At the beginning of the season, we knew the young, largely unproven offense was going to sputter once in a while. If the Navy team was going to reach its goals in 2009, the defense was going to have to win some games for them. There were encouraging signs through the first four games that they’d be able to do so, but until it happens, you’re never really sure. Well, now you can be sure. The Mids were suffocating on defense, holding Air Force to 249 yards of total offense while forcing two turnovers and keeping the Falcons out of the end zone. Their 3 & out on Air Force’s first posession might have been the difference in the game, giving the Navy offense excellent field position on their first drive to set up the game’s only offensive touchdown. Ross Pospisil was his usual dependable self, leading the way with 12 tackles. If Joe Buckley hadn’t been Mr. Automatic, a strong case could be made for Wyatt Middleton as the game’s MVP. Middleton was all over the field, making 9 tackles in run support while breaking up two passes in coverage. The line also had a banner day, with Matt Nechak and Jabaree Tuani combining for 14 tackles. You can point out a good play by just about any Navy defender that got into the game.

The corollary to the complaints about the Navy offense has been to heap praise upon the Air Force defense. They played well too, but they shouldn’t be overshadowing the defense that actually, you know, won. Contrary to what some would have you believe, there’s nothing wrong with winning games with defense. Hell, two years after fielding what seemed like the worst defense in history, it’s downright refreshing. It turns out that games won with defense count just as much toward bowl eligibility as shootouts. Who knew? Younger fans might have an excuse, but anyone old enough to remember the George Welsh years should recall that Navy won games primarily through superb defense and a ball-control offense. I can only imagine the comments we’d have seen if we had the internet back then. OMG WHY DO WE KEEP HANDING OFF TO GATTUSO?? LESZCZYNSKI NEEDS TO PASS MORE!

Still, you have to give credit to Air Force for their defensive game plan. I didn’t think the game had to be so close, but when Navy was unable to make use of its two biggest advantages– slotback speed and Ricky’s arm– it’s no surprise that the score was tight. Not that Coach Jasper didn’t try to get the ball to his weapons. Navy’s first play of the game was a toss sweep that, as a harbinger of things to come, was blown up by the Air Force cornerback. Our intrepid offensive coordinator continued to call pass plays throughout the game as well, but most of them devolved into scrambles almost immediately. Coincidentally, those scrambles were Navy’s most successful running plays on the afternoon.

Navy’s offense started the day picking up where they left off in last year’s game, handing the ball off to the fullback. The first drive consisted primarily of designed handoffs to Alex Teich. Actually, other than the shorter field it was very similar to the first drive against Ohio State; the fullback carried the load until the last play, when the defense’s overpursuit of the fullback left a running lane open for Ricky to scoot to the end zone. The Mids didn’t run an actual option play until its third possession, at the very end of the first quarter. The first play of the drive was another called handoff to the fullback. The cornerback crept closer to the ball before the snap. On the next play, Coach Jasper called the triple option. The cornerback cheated toward the ball again. This puts him in the count; he’s #3, and the playside slotback should pick him up. He doesn’t, though, opting instead to head upfield and block a linebacker. Even though Ricky is given a read to pitch, he can’t; the unblocked cornerback would blow up the play. Ricky is forced to hold onto the ball for a minimal gain.

After that, Air Force settled into their option game plan. Their goal was to take away Navy’s big-play ability outside, forcing Navy to run into the strength of the defense. They did this in two steps. First, the pitch key almost always played the pitch. He didn’t wait for the quarterback to get outside, either; he ran straight into the backfield to show his intent. Second, the give key used the mesh charge to confuse the quarterback. The mesh charge is a very difficult read, as the defender basically fakes taking the fullback dive and steps upfield to take the quarterback at the last second. The combination of the two puts the quarterback in extremis almost immediately.

Ricky was able to adjust to the mesh charge and make the correct read more often than not. Since he was clearly being forced to run up the middle, Coach Jasper tried calling the midline to give Air Force a different look:

It might have worked more often than it did if nose guard Ben Garland didn’t absolutely own the middle of the field.

Garland wasn’t alone. The option isn’t the only way to get the ball to the slotbacks on the perimeter. But no matter how you try, you have to block the cornerbacks. Navy could not. The Mids’ inability to block Air Force’s corners was reminiscent of the futility of trying to block Scott McKillop against Pitt in 2008. Whenever someone tried to block him, McKillop just sidestepped him and kept moving. The Air Force cornerbacks were doing that all afternoon.

Obviously, it wasn’t exactly a banner day for the Navy offense. You might ask, “where were the adjustments?” Well, no matter what you adjust to, at some point someone’s got to start blocking. Navy had a hard time with that concept on Saturday. Air Force had a lot to do with that.

Still, after five games, Navy is sitting pretty: 3-2 after a brutal stretch of opponents, with half of the Commander in Chief’s Trophy competition in the bag. But what will become of Air Force? The knock on Fisher DeBerry at the end of his tenure in Colorado Springs was that after his team lost to Navy, their season would fall apart. That might have been true in 2003, but after that it’s complete revisionist history. From 2004-2006, Air Force wasn’t all that great going into the Navy game to begin with; their combined pre-Navy record in those years was only 6-6. The season was already in trouble by the time they got to the Navy game, and in each of those years they actually followed up the loss to the Mids with a conference win. Sometimes revisionist history rules the day, though, and to Troy Calhoun’s benefit. One thing that Calhoun has been given a lot of credit for is holding Air Force’s season together after losing to Navy, well enough to earn bids to two straight Armed Forces Bowls. I’m not so sure that’s going to happen this year. Like Navy, Air Force is also 3-2. But their next 4 games include #10 TCU, plus road games at Utah and a much-improved Colorado State team. Even Wyoming is 3-2 right now. It’s entirely possible for Air Force to be 4-5 after that stretch and needing a win at BYU to secure a winning record. 6-6 is a real possibility for this team.

So what’s different? Why is Air Force staring .500 in the face after going 17-9 in Calhoun’s first two seasons? Shouldn’t the team be getting better in year three? Well, they are on one side of the ball. Defensively, Air Force has been excellent, and that doesn’t look to change much next year with 7 starters returning. The offense is a different story. One would think that this would be the year that they’d break out, with seniors starting at all five offensive line positions plus tight end. Who wouldn’t want to run behind that? Despite that experience, the unit has been held without a touchdown for two consecutive games, and only has four against I-A competition all year. The culprit, according to some, is conservative playcalling. Was it? Air Force was the one throwing 14 passes on Saturday. Air Force was the one taking shots downfield in the first half– one being intercepted by Emmett Merchant, and the other almost meeting the same fate courtesy of Wyatt Middleton. Air Force was the one calling end-arounds, attacking the perimeter, and using double-reverse play-action. Maybe they played things close to the vest in overtime, but not during regulation. It only appeared “conservative” because frankly, they didn’t have enough speed to make those plays work. Receivers running downfield were matched step-for-step by Navy defensive backs. When Tim Jefferson completed passes underneath, his receivers couldn’t generate any yards after the catch. When Jonathan Warzeka tried to get to the corner, he couldn’t outrun Navy’s inside-out pursuit. Despite the bellyaching, Air Force’s most successful plays on Saturday were the “conservative” ones, when Savier Stephens would run up the middle behind that veteran offensive line.

If it wasn’t razzle-dazzle that Air Force was missing on Saturday, perhaps it was something else. While Calhoun used zone reads and other option plays, the triple option was very sparingly employed. That might be because he has two sophomore quarterbacks sitting on top of his depth chart. Air Force has had a bit of a continuity problem at quarterback. A mass exodus from their prep school left them with few options, and now Jefferson is set to become the school’s second straight four-year starter at the position. It sounds like a good thing, but it really isn’t. It’s one thing to start a freshman or a sophomore because that player is just that damn good. It’s another to start a freshman or sophomore because you have no other choice. Air Force is experiencing the latter. That’s not a slight to Jefferson; it’s just reality. He is going to become more comfortable in the offense, and Calhoun’s playcalling options will expand. Unfortunately for Jefferson, though, by the time that happens, he won’t have that super-experienced line blocking for him. Obviously there’s a lot of football left to be played this year, and a team can improve over the course of the season. But Air Force hasn’t exactly faced the Monsters of the Midway so far this year; it’s going to be a lot harder to get better against the likes of TCU and Utah.

But that’s their problem. Right now, Navy has two road games of their own to deal with in the next two weeks, heading to Texas to take on Rice and SMU. While the team has to move on, at least they do so knowing that they can still achieve all their goals. Well, except maybe the rushing title.

EXTRA POINTS

— It’s time for Air Force players to stop saying they want the trophy “back.” Yes, they want the trophy, just like Army and Navy’s players do. But no current Air Force player has ever won the CIC Trophy. When these seniors were freshmen, none of their seniors had won it either. These players are two generations removed from having it. There is no “back.” The idea that service academy games are nothing more than an Air Force victory lap is now officially out of style, like Hypercolor t-shirts and Tommy Toughnuts phrases like “it’s on like friggin’ Donkey Kong.” Players, fans, and media alike are encouraged to embrace this reality.

Offensive football
Was set back seventy years.
I don’t seem to care.

If you’ve been reading this lousy blog long enough… I apologize. Really. For everything. But in the time you’ve subjected yourself to this horrible place, you might have noticed that I don’t have much use for the national media, at least when it comes to Navy sports. I don’t watch Sportscenter, rarely catch more than the last 15 minutes or so of Gameday before the noon games start, and read next to nothing from the sports page of most national newspapers, save for the occasional column. The reason for my disdain is that each and every one of you reading this right now know more about Navy football than anyone from ESPN or whatever other national clearinghouse from which you’re getting your news and analysis. That doesn’t just apply to Navy; you could say that about anyone. To obtain a real understanding of a team, you have to read their local stuff. It’s the only way. If you’re happy with platitudes and human interest stories, though, Gameday has you covered. I laugh when the message board crowd gets excited over WOW LEE CORSO PICKED NAVY TO UPSET PITT, even though Lee Corso can’t name more than three people combined from both teams’ rosters. OMG SPORTSLINE RANKS NAVY 64TH or whatever is equally meaningless, since Navy is being ranked against 119 other teams the website’s prognosticators don’t know anything about. For the same reason, I also don’t get too spun up if these places don’t rank Navy very highly. These guys take a stab for the casual football fan to skim over, but that’s all. Hardcore fans are best served looking elsewhere.

I know, I know… Thanks for the lecture, Mike, but nobody cares what you think and Herbstreit is dreamy, so have fun with your Spongebob on Saturday mornings while I watch Gameday and read me some news. I get it. But don’t pretend you don’t get annoyed when you read that “Air Force tends to get a higher caliber of player than Navy.” You know you ask yourself where on earth the Troy Calhoun love affair comes from, and why Ken Niumatalolo doesn’t get nearly the same kind of credit for his work at the Naval Academy. And why does it seem like people are so anxious to hand the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy back to Air Force year after year? Now, it’s not as if the very thought of Air Force being a better football team is so outrageous. They have good players, and they win games. I’m sure someone could construct a detailed argument to support the idea… But they don’t. These proclamations are rarely accompanied by anything resembling an in-depth comparison of the two teams. It’s usually a one-liner, followed by something like “last year/two years/three years were a fluke!” or “Troy Calhoun is the real deal!” or “Navy isn’t the same without Paul Johnson!” (That last one is especially funny to me, since these people would still pick Air Force even when Johnson was the coach.) 

So if it isn’t actual analysis that inspires all these people to think Air Force is so great, then what is it? The same reason why everyone is so anxious to say that Florida State, Miami, and Michigan are “back”: reputation. That’s all there is to it. It’s just what people are used to. It’s bogus, of course, but it’s what you’re left with when you don’t have the time or inclination to take a detailed look. It usually works out well enough since, generally speaking, good programs are good programs for a reason– some schools just have inherent advantages in money, location, admissions standards, etc. The service academy football experiment, though, happens in its own little petri dish. Air Force might one day have a built-in advantage if the Mountain West ever gets a BCS auto-bid, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for that; the same goes for Army and the Alternative “Service” Option. As far as things stand right now, the service academies all have more or less the same tools to work with; the Naval Academy might have a small advantage in the number of service options available upon commissioning, but I doubt Army’s or Air Force’s coaches see that as much of an obstacle. People picking Air Force– or Navy, for that matter– to be kings of the service academy mountain because they’re supposed to be there are mistaken.

The whole “this is the way things are supposed to happen” way of thinking can infect fans and players as much as the media. Navy has defeated Air Force for six consecutive years, but as we’re constantly reminded, none of them were blowouts. That’s because it’s Navy-Air Force! It’s going to be a tight one! It always is! Right? Well, once upon a time the same was said about the Army-Navy game– the ol’ “throw out the records when these teams meet” cliché. That’s how things usually played out, too. In the 11 years from 1991-2001, the margin of victory was less than 5 points seven times. But then a strange thing happened. In the 2002 game, the Mids went up 14-3 early in the second quarter when Craig Candeto punched in his second 1-yard TD run. When he got back to the sideline, Candeto said something, and it might have been the exact moment Navy football turned the corner as a program. Candeto told the offense, “Guys, this doesn’t have to be close.” And it wasn’t. Navy walked out of the Meadowlands having racked up 508 yards of offense in a 58-12 victory. The rivalry– and the team– haven’t been the same since. Part of me wonders if the whole “it’s always a close one” mentality becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy for Navy when they play Air Force. Contrary to the mainstream, I don’t think this is an even matchup. I think Navy is the better team, hands down. No, that doesn’t mean that the Mids are going to come out and hang 58 on Team Jesus Christ on Saturday. Air Force is clearly not the 2002 Army team, and is fully capable of winning this game. I just don’t think they will.

That might seem unusually confident coming from me, but it’s fueled in part by what looks like a remarkable lack of confidence from Troy Calhoun in his team. I’ve made fun of the new Air Force media guidelines a couple times here, but it wasn’t until last week that its true nature really began to come to the surface. Falcons quarterback Tim Jefferson was hurt early in the game against New Mexico; he left and didn’t return. The Tuesday after the game, Jefferson spoke about his injury, saying that his ankle was “between 60 and 80 percent.” Two days later, a new policy was handed down from Calhoun on top of the already stringent rules that were issued earlier this season: no more talking to injured players. The message Calhoun is sending is clear; he doesn’t trust his players. The easy solution would be to give players a little guidance on what they should and shouldn’t say to the media like every other program in the country, but it would appear that Troy Calhoun doesn’t believe his players can handle that.

Depending on who you ask, that lack of confidence may be manifesting itself on the field as well. Last week’s game against San Diego State wasn’t exactly an offensive performance for the ages; the Air Force defense actually outscored the offense, and had the team’s only touchdowns. Afterwards, Calhoun stated that he intentionally kept things conservative on offense. OK, that happens. We’ve seen Navy do it before, most notably in the 2007 Army game. Of course, Paul Johnson wasn’t calling any double reverses in that game, either. Air Force did against San Diego State– more than once, actually– which makes you wonder if Calhoun was really scaling things back. He was, but only if you define “scaling things back” as “not passing much.” Otherwise, it was the same Air Force running game we’ve seen all year.

To give you an idea of how the Air Force offense has been performing, consider this: Navy scored as many offensive touchdowns against Ohio State as Air Force scored against Minnesota, San Diego State, and New Mexico combined. The Falcons have averaged 6 ypg less than Navy against I-A competition, and Navy has faced not only the Buckeyes, but also Pitt, and a Louisiana Tech team that won 8 games a year ago and just held Hawaii to 301 total yards on Wednesday night (Hawaii was averaging 521 ypg coming into that game). Air Force has made 14 trips into their I-A opponents’ red zones so far this year. Ten of those trips resulted in 3 points or less. Maybe Calhoun played things close to the vest against the Aztecs, but for the entire season? No way.

The problem for Air Force last year against Navy was that they just didn’t have any offensive playmakers. There were instances in last year’s game where a player would take the ball on a pitch and have gobs of real estate in front of him, but couldn’t get any more than a first down out of the play. The issue seems to have creeped its way into 2009. Air Force has yet to find a player to replace Chad Hall. Hall was named the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year in 2007 after finishing third nationally in all-purpose yards and leading the Falcons in both rushing (1,478 yards) and receiving (524 yards). In contrast, Air Force’s leading rusher in 2008 was Todd Newell, with all of 594 yards. Hall was the one player on the team that was fast enough to turn any play into six points. This year, Air Force doesn’t have a run longer than 26 yards against I-A competition. The threat just hasn’t presented itself. Asher Clark, the quarterback-turned-tailback-turned-quarterback-turned-tailback that emerged after the loss to Navy last year, might be the answer. He finished with 588 rushing yards in only 8 full games as a freshman. But he injured his shoulder against San Diego State, and Calhoun hasn’t said anything about his status for Saturday’s game. Even if he plays– and I suspect he will– he’s only a sophomore, and hasn’t reached Hall-like ability yet. Navy’s defense is making fewer and fewer mistakes in 2009, and has become the strength of this team. Air Force has to capitalize whenever they can. They just haven’t shown that they have the horses to be able to do so.

It’s a different story on the other side of the ball. A solid unit in ’08, the Air Force defense has wasted no time picking up where it left off, and then some. The Falcons rank 20th nationally in total defense, and have allowed a cool 106 yards per game against the run. That’s impressive enough on its own, but the most remarkable thing has been their ability to create turnovers and turn them into points. Air Force leads the nation in takeaways with 15. Four of them were returned for touchdowns, including two against San Diego State alone. Where the offense has struggled in creating big plays, the defense has picked up the slack. Last year, the Air Force defense held Navy to a mere 244 yards of total offense. Many people point to that performance as the sign that this is Air Force’s year.

Navy’s offense sort of went through three phases in Colorado Springs last year. At the beginning of the game, Jarod Bryant actually did a pretty good job in making the right option reads; a feat made even more impressive by the fact that Air Force was doing a good job showing him different reads on almost every play. There were two problems, though. One, Air Force clearly had no respect for Bryant as a passer, and sent a safety running full speed to the line of scrimmage on almost every play. Two, Air Force’s defensive line was dominant in the first half. Even though Jarod was making the correct reads, it didn’t look like it; he kept getting tackled for minimal gains. Take a look at this play:

Jarod makes the right read here, but defensive end Jake Paulson is so athletic that he’s able to recover from initially taking the fullback, and tackles Bryant from behind. Plays like this led to phase two of the Navy offense: Jarod, having made the right reads but still being unable to get the offense kickstarted, lost his confidence in what he was seeing and started making the wrong reads. In an effort to stop the bleeding, the Navy coaches moved on to phase three in the 4th quarter: just giving the ball to Eric Kettani on every play. By then, Navy had established a little bit of a lead, and was content with just getting a couple of first downs and punting, playing field position and preventing a turnover that would give the Falcons another short field to work with (the Mids fumbled 4 times in that game, losing two). Air Force managed to score a late TD to make it a one-score game, but Navy ran out the last 2:30 to clinch the victory.

It was a spirited effort on the part of the Air Force defense, and as solid a gameplan as we’ve seen… But replicating that performance will be a lot easier said than done. Air Force can’t completely disregard the pass this year, thanks to Ricky Dobbs. That keeps the playside safety from selling out in run support. Air Force also no longer has Paulson and fellow bookend Ryan Kemp, two players on the defensive line whose individual efforts went a long way in disrupting Navy’s option game. Especially Paulson– first-team all-conference players aren’t exactly a dime a dozen. Myles Morales and Rick Ricketts have done their jobs, but through 4 games they’ve combined for only 18 tackles. They should be a better matchup for Navy’s tackles, both of whom were only sophomores in 2008.

One player that Air Force still has in their defensive arsenal is nose guard Ben Garland. Statistically, Garland didn’t appear to be much of a factor last year, tallying all of one tackle against Navy. But that’s why you can’t just look at a stat sheet. Garland played an excellent game, and has single-handedly influenced Navy personnel decisions because of it. Bill Wagner wrote an insightful piece on the center-nose guard battle in last year’s contest. Coach Niumatalolo didn’t change all that much when Paul Johnson left, but one change he did make was at center. Because Air Force plays with a 5-man front against Navy with a nose guard lined up over the center, Niumat felt that he should put a bigger, stronger player at center to get a better push. Ricky Moore was moved to center to do just that, and he had a great year… Except against Air Force. Moore was never able to push Garland out of the way. Garland didn’t use his 275-pound frame to try to get leverage on Moore; instead, he used his hands to simply shed Moore’s cut blocks and get around him.

That’s a well-coached defensive tackle right there, and he’s back for another year. Moore’s size was a non-factor. Because of that, Navy’s coaches opted to make a change at center, moving the larger but less experienced Brady DeMell back to guard in favor of senior Curtis Bass, widely considered Navy’s best offensive lineman. As heavily as Air Force relies on its defense, the Bass-Garland showdown is the key matchup of this game.

One could easily argue that Navy has playmakers of its own to replace on offense. But Marcus Curry has emerged as a big-play threat, as has Ricky Dobbs as a passer. Those two, plus Bobby Doyle and Alex Teich, all have plays as long as anything Air Force has run against non-Nicholls State competition. Air Force will do their best to confuse Ricky, and will probably find some success with it. But as long as Ricky doesn’t turn those mistakes into turnovers, Navy should come away with the win.

(Pray that I’m right, because if not, the comments on this blog are going to be unreadable for a while, BROTHER).