Category: conference talk

ADDENDUM

On By MikeIn air farce, conference talk, football, recruiting8 Comments

Since we’re talking about Air Force, now would probably be a good time to talk about the recent hullabaloo over the Mountain West’s attempts to gain BCS membership, or to create a playoff. With all the talk we do around here about recruiting advantages, can you imagine if Air Force coaches could go into a recruit’s living room and tell him that he could play for a BCS conference? Especially when that recruit’s options are probably something like Air Force, Navy, Bucknell, Dartmouth, and Rhode Island. Those three little letters would certainly enhance the Mountain West’s image, Air Force included. Perception is reality, as the cliché goes. It would also add a lot of money to Air Force’s coffers. So… Is it time?

In a word, no.

The Mountain West can talk about how good Utah, TCU, and BYU are all they want, but it won’t matter. The BCS isn’t about quality of competition. The BCS is about putting together a television package that generates the maximum amount of revenue while being split between the fewest possible number of teams. To that end, it doesn’t matter how good the teams are. All that matters is how many people will watch. This is where the Mountain West’s case falls flat.

The BCS isn’t made up of the best teams in college football; any number of non-BCS teams routinely knock off BCS-conference foes every year. The BCS is made up of the most popular teams in college football. Take a look at the average home attendance of each BCS conference last year:

SEC 76,844
Big Ten 70,125
Big 12 62,956
Pac-10 57,350
ACC 52,737
Big East 43,145

Now, compare that to the Mountain West’s average attendance: 35,125. Only two MWC teams, BYU and Utah, have a higher home attendance than the Big East’s average. Those two teams skew the league’s average a bit. The average home attendance for the rest of the conference is a paltry 25,802. In short, nobody cares about the Mountain West.

That isn’t meant to be a slight to the MWC. It’s just reality. If the MWC or anyone else is serious about joining the BCS, they don’t need to show how their teams are good enough to compete; Utah, BYU, and TCU have done that. What they need to do is show how their inclusion would make current BCS members more money. But as the attendance numbers show, the Mountain West doesn’t add enough value in terms of a dedicated following for the BCS to be able to charge a significant premium for its television package. Adding nine more teams would just reduce the per-school share of the BCS money pie. That’s also why there’s resistance to a playoff; the money generated from the tournament would have to be split between too many teams. There is no incentive for the BCS schools to be more inclusive.

The people running the Mountain West aren’t stupid. I’m sure they know that they have no chance at seeing their proposals come to fruition. But by making a public to-do out of it, they generate free publicity for their best teams, highlight the true nature of the current BCS system for the public, and help to establish themselves as a leader among the non-BCS conferences.

Those are all good things as far as Mountain West schools are concerned, but nothing any Navy fan should really worry about.

FEAR THE GOAT

On By MikeIn conference talk, navy football3 Comments

Columns about Big East expansion are no rarity. Almost as common are mentions of Navy within those columns as a candidate. But saying that Navy is too good for the Big East?

The Navy possibility has always been intriguing. Annapolis, Md.? Sure. The football is pretty good. There is also the nationwide draw of the Army-Navy game, though its contract with CBS would be an issue.

But the biggest problem with Navy is that it might be a little too good. The Midshipmen, who averaged eight wins a year the past five seasons under former coach Paul Johnson (now at Georgia Tech), could easily hang in the Big East and be in the mix for one of the conference’s seven bowl bids.

Adding another team to a conference sounds good until it affects you directly. And Navy coming in would affect middle-of-the-pack teams even with the conference aligning itself with the new St. Petersburg Bowl pitting Big East and C-USA schools. With similar records, Navy could be more attractive than other Big East teams to bowl committees.

Now I’ve seen everything.

Loose Change

On By MikeIn air farce, army-navy, bowls, conference talk, football, going pro, lacrosse, naval academy, navy basketball, navy football, navy lacrosse, patriot league, Paul Johnson, recruiting, usnaLeave a comment

Lots of chatter popping up in the last couple of days:

  • In the “ignorance is bliss” category, we have PJ’s Monday presser. Talk about a list of things you wish you didn’t know… Kaipo’s in a neck brace, none of the punters are consistent, the secondary’s all hurt, and Greg Thrasher is in PJ’s doghouse. Yeesh. I guess there’s a silver lining in that Rashawn King is recovering well from his shoulder injury, but anyone who didn’t like PJ’s media day optimism can feel better knowing that it’s back to business as usual.
  • Navy will once again be an NCAA lacrosse tournament quarterfinal host this year. The ability to host events like these were a big reason why Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium made the switch to FieldTurf, so it’s nice to see that move pay off. It’ll be nicer if it’s a Navy home game this year.
  • The unending football conference affiliation talk resumed as Chet talked to Ron Snyder about the difficulties of finding bowl games as an independent. Conference membership means a lot more than bowl game access, though. I still don’t think that this will happen anytime soon, if at all.
  • Navy’s been sold out of Army-Navy tickets for a while. Now Army is too. If you want tickets, looks like you’ll be headed to Stubhub or eBay.
  • Scout.com’s Temple site previews Navy (subscription required). For those without a subscription, it’s very complimentary, saying that Navy “might be the second-toughest team on the schedule.” In case you’re wondering, Temple plays Penn State this year.
  • Some Air Force Academy grad wants to play pro baseball. I don’t really care that much as long as this doesn’t become a habit; the Air Force will do what it thinks is best for itself. But will people PLEASE stop comparing every scrub that wants to turn pro to David Robinson? By the time Robinson played his first game in San Antonio, he had already been an Olympic medalist, a Naismith Award winner, a Wooden Award winner, on the cover of Sports Illustrated, and led Navy to the Elite Eight in the NCAA tournament. That is a far, far cry from being one of thousands of players struggling to find a place in minor league baseball. Robinson is one of the best players in the history of his sport. Karl Bolt is not. It makes a difference when the Navy or Air Force is considering an athlete’s fate.
  • Bill Wagner offers a look at college recruiting, including Billy Lange’s approach.
  • ESPN.com talks Patriot League basketball as part of their “Shoot Around” series.

Speaking of Independence…

On By MikeIn army-navy, conference talk, football, navy football, Paul Johnson7 Comments

Remember in the second Austin Powers movie, when Austin goes back in time and lands in the middle of a party at his apartment? There’s a woman there who was sent by Dr. Evil to kill him. She ends up getting stabbed. And shot. And hit with a bazooka. And dropped out of a window. Each time something happens to her, though, she keeps talking. “You can’t win, Powers!” Irritated, Austin Powers finally exclaims, “Why won’t you die?!”

That line pretty much sums up my feelings whenever I see a story about Navy joining a conference for football. I guess people don’t like seeing independents out there; everyone seems to have their own favorite pie-in-the-sky conference realignment master plan. Over the last four or five years I think I’ve read speculation of Navy joining the MAC, Conference USA, Big East, ACC (lol), and, after a mystery meeting at BWI, forming its own conference of “academic” football schools. The talk never seems to go away; it really is the never-ending story. It’s popped up again this week, courtesy of Mitch Vingle and the Charleston Gazette.

Of all the conference rumors, the ones involving the Big East are the most persistent. I wrote two years ago why I think that joining a conference is a bad idea for Navy. My opinion hasn’t changed, so I won’t rehash all that. But the Big East is a special case. The Big East only has 8 football schools, meaning that their conference schedules are unbalanced. A ninth football-playing member would allow each Big East school to play four home and four away games each year. That means that those athletic directors would only need to find three out-of-conference home games to fill each year to get to seven, which everyone wants in a 12-game season. So while other conference rumors come and go, Big East talk sticks around.

I don’t know if this latest chatter is something that the Big East is seriously considering or just the ramblings of a local sportswriter, but it isn’t a new idea. Basically, Army and Navy would split a “membership,” with each team playing four Big East games. This would solve the conference’s scheduling problem. As a fringe benefit, they’d get to slap a Big East logo on the field at the Army-Navy game and add a couple of teams in the Big East’s geographic footprint who at least have name recognition, even if they aren’t powerhouses. That’s all nice, but these rumors always talk about how great it would be for the Big East. Nobody seems to want to talk about it from Army or Navy’s point of view.

While I’m against conference membership in general, I wouldn’t discount this possibility too quickly. It’s important to know what exactly constitutes “membership.” Is it really a membership, or just a scheduling agreement? There’s a huge difference if you’re talking about what good this arrangement would do Army and Navy. There are a couple of things that both schools would have to get out of this deal if it’s going to be taken seriously. As with anything, money is the top priority. If Army and Navy were to have a split Big East membership, does that mean that they’d split a share of the conference’s BCS money, too? People say that Army is in no rush to join another conference after their Conference USA disaster, but if the rumors of their athletic department’s debt are true then BCS money might be enough to change their tune. Bowl game access is also important. Would Army and Navy be eligible for consideration by Big East-affiliated bowl games? Without those two concessions (at the very least), this alignment wouldn’t be worth it to the two service academies.

And there’s the problem; with those two concessions, it wouldn’t be worth it to the Big East. The whole reason that schools want seven home games is for the money. Right now, Big East schools split their BCS take 8 ways. Does the ease of scheduling 7 home games make it worth splitting BCS money 9 ways? I doubt it. As for bowl game access, with the arrangement that they already have with Notre Dame I doubt that Big East ADs are in any rush to add another chance for one of their bowl games to pick someone else.

Navy isn’t in the financial dire straits that Army allegedly is, but it’s still prudent to listen when money-making opportunities present themselves. If this “membership” is just a scheduling arrangement, though, then forget it. There’s no reason to obligate ourselves to Big East scheduling whims when we could just go out and get home & home series individually. Even a bona fide split “membership” probably isn’t worth it. Navy showed last year that it was plenty capable of grabbing Big East bowl bids on its own, and the Big East won’t offer enough money to make it worth being relegated to “half-member” status. Money is valuable, but not as much as self-determination. It isn’t like it’s some great privilege just to have any association with the Big East.

One last thing to remember is that it’s important to consider the long-term effects. Navy right now could probably be competitive in the Big East. There is one reason for that: Paul Johnson. Once Coach Johnson is gone, then what? Playing in the Big East might sound appealing to some people now, but it isn’t something that we want to be stuck with in the long term.

I actually have a soft spot for the Big East. Schools like Pittsburgh and Syracuse were on Navy schedules for generations, and there would be a nostalgic appeal to seeing those schools as regulars on Navy schedules once again. Nostalgia isn’t enough, though. Nobody has presented a convincing argument for why Navy should sign up for any kind of Big East “membership.” Until someone does, it’s best to let the idea fade away in a Charleston newspaper. Having four fewer games to schedule isn’t reason enough.