GAME WEEK: AIR FORCE

If you’ve been reading this lousy blog long enough… I apologize. Really. For everything. But in the time you’ve subjected yourself to this horrible place, you might have noticed that I don’t have much use for the national media, at least when it comes to Navy sports. I don’t watch Sportscenter, rarely catch more than the last 15 minutes or so of Gameday before the noon games start, and read next to nothing from the sports page of most national newspapers, save for the occasional column. The reason for my disdain is that each and every one of you reading this right now know more about Navy football than anyone from ESPN or whatever other national clearinghouse from which you’re getting your news and analysis. That doesn’t just apply to Navy; you could say that about anyone. To obtain a real understanding of a team, you have to read their local stuff. It’s the only way. If you’re happy with platitudes and human interest stories, though, Gameday has you covered. I laugh when the message board crowd gets excited over WOW LEE CORSO PICKED NAVY TO UPSET PITT, even though Lee Corso can’t name more than three people combined from both teams’ rosters. OMG SPORTSLINE RANKS NAVY 64TH or whatever is equally meaningless, since Navy is being ranked against 119 other teams the website’s prognosticators don’t know anything about. For the same reason, I also don’t get too spun up if these places don’t rank Navy very highly. These guys take a stab for the casual football fan to skim over, but that’s all. Hardcore fans are best served looking elsewhere.

I know, I know… Thanks for the lecture, Mike, but nobody cares what you think and Herbstreit is dreamy, so have fun with your Spongebob on Saturday mornings while I watch Gameday and read me some news. I get it. But don’t pretend you don’t get annoyed when you read that “Air Force tends to get a higher caliber of player than Navy.” You know you ask yourself where on earth the Troy Calhoun love affair comes from, and why Ken Niumatalolo doesn’t get nearly the same kind of credit for his work at the Naval Academy. And why does it seem like people are so anxious to hand the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy back to Air Force year after year? Now, it’s not as if the very thought of Air Force being a better football team is so outrageous. They have good players, and they win games. I’m sure someone could construct a detailed argument to support the idea… But they don’t. These proclamations are rarely accompanied by anything resembling an in-depth comparison of the two teams. It’s usually a one-liner, followed by something like “last year/two years/three years were a fluke!” or “Troy Calhoun is the real deal!” or “Navy isn’t the same without Paul Johnson!” (That last one is especially funny to me, since these people would still pick Air Force even when Johnson was the coach.) 

So if it isn’t actual analysis that inspires all these people to think Air Force is so great, then what is it? The same reason why everyone is so anxious to say that Florida State, Miami, and Michigan are “back”: reputation. That’s all there is to it. It’s just what people are used to. It’s bogus, of course, but it’s what you’re left with when you don’t have the time or inclination to take a detailed look. It usually works out well enough since, generally speaking, good programs are good programs for a reason– some schools just have inherent advantages in money, location, admissions standards, etc. The service academy football experiment, though, happens in its own little petri dish. Air Force might one day have a built-in advantage if the Mountain West ever gets a BCS auto-bid, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for that; the same goes for Army and the Alternative “Service” Option. As far as things stand right now, the service academies all have more or less the same tools to work with; the Naval Academy might have a small advantage in the number of service options available upon commissioning, but I doubt Army’s or Air Force’s coaches see that as much of an obstacle. People picking Air Force– or Navy, for that matter– to be kings of the service academy mountain because they’re supposed to be there are mistaken.

The whole “this is the way things are supposed to happen” way of thinking can infect fans and players as much as the media. Navy has defeated Air Force for six consecutive years, but as we’re constantly reminded, none of them were blowouts. That’s because it’s Navy-Air Force! It’s going to be a tight one! It always is! Right? Well, once upon a time the same was said about the Army-Navy game– the ol’ “throw out the records when these teams meet” cliché. That’s how things usually played out, too. In the 11 years from 1991-2001, the margin of victory was less than 5 points seven times. But then a strange thing happened. In the 2002 game, the Mids went up 14-3 early in the second quarter when Craig Candeto punched in his second 1-yard TD run. When he got back to the sideline, Candeto said something, and it might have been the exact moment Navy football turned the corner as a program. Candeto told the offense, “Guys, this doesn’t have to be close.” And it wasn’t. Navy walked out of the Meadowlands having racked up 508 yards of offense in a 58-12 victory. The rivalry– and the team– haven’t been the same since. Part of me wonders if the whole “it’s always a close one” mentality becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy for Navy when they play Air Force. Contrary to the mainstream, I don’t think this is an even matchup. I think Navy is the better team, hands down. No, that doesn’t mean that the Mids are going to come out and hang 58 on Team Jesus Christ on Saturday. Air Force is clearly not the 2002 Army team, and is fully capable of winning this game. I just don’t think they will.

That might seem unusually confident coming from me, but it’s fueled in part by what looks like a remarkable lack of confidence from Troy Calhoun in his team. I’ve made fun of the new Air Force media guidelines a couple times here, but it wasn’t until last week that its true nature really began to come to the surface. Falcons quarterback Tim Jefferson was hurt early in the game against New Mexico; he left and didn’t return. The Tuesday after the game, Jefferson spoke about his injury, saying that his ankle was “between 60 and 80 percent.” Two days later, a new policy was handed down from Calhoun on top of the already stringent rules that were issued earlier this season: no more talking to injured players. The message Calhoun is sending is clear; he doesn’t trust his players. The easy solution would be to give players a little guidance on what they should and shouldn’t say to the media like every other program in the country, but it would appear that Troy Calhoun doesn’t believe his players can handle that.

Depending on who you ask, that lack of confidence may be manifesting itself on the field as well. Last week’s game against San Diego State wasn’t exactly an offensive performance for the ages; the Air Force defense actually outscored the offense, and had the team’s only touchdowns. Afterwards, Calhoun stated that he intentionally kept things conservative on offense. OK, that happens. We’ve seen Navy do it before, most notably in the 2007 Army game. Of course, Paul Johnson wasn’t calling any double reverses in that game, either. Air Force did against San Diego State– more than once, actually– which makes you wonder if Calhoun was really scaling things back. He was, but only if you define “scaling things back” as “not passing much.” Otherwise, it was the same Air Force running game we’ve seen all year.

To give you an idea of how the Air Force offense has been performing, consider this: Navy scored as many offensive touchdowns against Ohio State as Air Force scored against Minnesota, San Diego State, and New Mexico combined. The Falcons have averaged 6 ypg less than Navy against I-A competition, and Navy has faced not only the Buckeyes, but also Pitt, and a Louisiana Tech team that won 8 games a year ago and just held Hawaii to 301 total yards on Wednesday night (Hawaii was averaging 521 ypg coming into that game). Air Force has made 14 trips into their I-A opponents’ red zones so far this year. Ten of those trips resulted in 3 points or less. Maybe Calhoun played things close to the vest against the Aztecs, but for the entire season? No way.

The problem for Air Force last year against Navy was that they just didn’t have any offensive playmakers. There were instances in last year’s game where a player would take the ball on a pitch and have gobs of real estate in front of him, but couldn’t get any more than a first down out of the play. The issue seems to have creeped its way into 2009. Air Force has yet to find a player to replace Chad Hall. Hall was named the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year in 2007 after finishing third nationally in all-purpose yards and leading the Falcons in both rushing (1,478 yards) and receiving (524 yards). In contrast, Air Force’s leading rusher in 2008 was Todd Newell, with all of 594 yards. Hall was the one player on the team that was fast enough to turn any play into six points. This year, Air Force doesn’t have a run longer than 26 yards against I-A competition. The threat just hasn’t presented itself. Asher Clark, the quarterback-turned-tailback-turned-quarterback-turned-tailback that emerged after the loss to Navy last year, might be the answer. He finished with 588 rushing yards in only 8 full games as a freshman. But he injured his shoulder against San Diego State, and Calhoun hasn’t said anything about his status for Saturday’s game. Even if he plays– and I suspect he will– he’s only a sophomore, and hasn’t reached Hall-like ability yet. Navy’s defense is making fewer and fewer mistakes in 2009, and has become the strength of this team. Air Force has to capitalize whenever they can. They just haven’t shown that they have the horses to be able to do so.

It’s a different story on the other side of the ball. A solid unit in ’08, the Air Force defense has wasted no time picking up where it left off, and then some. The Falcons rank 20th nationally in total defense, and have allowed a cool 106 yards per game against the run. That’s impressive enough on its own, but the most remarkable thing has been their ability to create turnovers and turn them into points. Air Force leads the nation in takeaways with 15. Four of them were returned for touchdowns, including two against San Diego State alone. Where the offense has struggled in creating big plays, the defense has picked up the slack. Last year, the Air Force defense held Navy to a mere 244 yards of total offense. Many people point to that performance as the sign that this is Air Force’s year.

Navy’s offense sort of went through three phases in Colorado Springs last year. At the beginning of the game, Jarod Bryant actually did a pretty good job in making the right option reads; a feat made even more impressive by the fact that Air Force was doing a good job showing him different reads on almost every play. There were two problems, though. One, Air Force clearly had no respect for Bryant as a passer, and sent a safety running full speed to the line of scrimmage on almost every play. Two, Air Force’s defensive line was dominant in the first half. Even though Jarod was making the correct reads, it didn’t look like it; he kept getting tackled for minimal gains. Take a look at this play:

Jarod makes the right read here, but defensive end Jake Paulson is so athletic that he’s able to recover from initially taking the fullback, and tackles Bryant from behind. Plays like this led to phase two of the Navy offense: Jarod, having made the right reads but still being unable to get the offense kickstarted, lost his confidence in what he was seeing and started making the wrong reads. In an effort to stop the bleeding, the Navy coaches moved on to phase three in the 4th quarter: just giving the ball to Eric Kettani on every play. By then, Navy had established a little bit of a lead, and was content with just getting a couple of first downs and punting, playing field position and preventing a turnover that would give the Falcons another short field to work with (the Mids fumbled 4 times in that game, losing two). Air Force managed to score a late TD to make it a one-score game, but Navy ran out the last 2:30 to clinch the victory.

It was a spirited effort on the part of the Air Force defense, and as solid a gameplan as we’ve seen… But replicating that performance will be a lot easier said than done. Air Force can’t completely disregard the pass this year, thanks to Ricky Dobbs. That keeps the playside safety from selling out in run support. Air Force also no longer has Paulson and fellow bookend Ryan Kemp, two players on the defensive line whose individual efforts went a long way in disrupting Navy’s option game. Especially Paulson– first-team all-conference players aren’t exactly a dime a dozen. Myles Morales and Rick Ricketts have done their jobs, but through 4 games they’ve combined for only 18 tackles. They should be a better matchup for Navy’s tackles, both of whom were only sophomores in 2008.

One player that Air Force still has in their defensive arsenal is nose guard Ben Garland. Statistically, Garland didn’t appear to be much of a factor last year, tallying all of one tackle against Navy. But that’s why you can’t just look at a stat sheet. Garland played an excellent game, and has single-handedly influenced Navy personnel decisions because of it. Bill Wagner wrote an insightful piece on the center-nose guard battle in last year’s contest. Coach Niumatalolo didn’t change all that much when Paul Johnson left, but one change he did make was at center. Because Air Force plays with a 5-man front against Navy with a nose guard lined up over the center, Niumat felt that he should put a bigger, stronger player at center to get a better push. Ricky Moore was moved to center to do just that, and he had a great year… Except against Air Force. Moore was never able to push Garland out of the way. Garland didn’t use his 275-pound frame to try to get leverage on Moore; instead, he used his hands to simply shed Moore’s cut blocks and get around him.

That’s a well-coached defensive tackle right there, and he’s back for another year. Moore’s size was a non-factor. Because of that, Navy’s coaches opted to make a change at center, moving the larger but less experienced Brady DeMell back to guard in favor of senior Curtis Bass, widely considered Navy’s best offensive lineman. As heavily as Air Force relies on its defense, the Bass-Garland showdown is the key matchup of this game.

One could easily argue that Navy has playmakers of its own to replace on offense. But Marcus Curry has emerged as a big-play threat, as has Ricky Dobbs as a passer. Those two, plus Bobby Doyle and Alex Teich, all have plays as long as anything Air Force has run against non-Nicholls State competition. Air Force will do their best to confuse Ricky, and will probably find some success with it. But as long as Ricky doesn’t turn those mistakes into turnovers, Navy should come away with the win.

(Pray that I’m right, because if not, the comments on this blog are going to be unreadable for a while, BROTHER).

NEWS FROM THE WILD BLUE GULAG

Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun says that quarterback Tim Jefferson is practicing again. At least, I think that’s what this means:

“Being able to practice, I think, is a good step forward,” Calhoun said of Jefferson. “Which I think you’ve got to do. I think this week the thing you’ve got to have is you’re going to have to have a good bit of practice work.”

Calhoun also says that he’d like to name a starter by today. Or not. So there you go.

Hey, with their new media policy, I don’t know if you appreciate what it takes to even get that much out of them.

NAVY 38, WKU 22

After laying an egg against Pittsburgh a week ago, the Navy football team was hoping to get that bad taste out of their mouths. The defense played well against the Panthers in a lot of ways, but gave up some big plays through the air; the offense didn’t do much of anything right. They could put that performance behind them by putting together a complete game against the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky. The Mids, led by Ricky Dobbs’ 143 rushing yards and 5 total touchdowns, won the game comfortably, 38-22. Whether that exorcised the demons of the previous week, however, is up for debate.

Offensively, it probably did. Ricky dominated the stat sheet, but he wasn’t the only Mid to have a good day. Bobby Doyle had 104 total yards from scrimmage, including a 24-yard streak down the sideline and a 47-yard pass reception. Marcus Curry chipped in 70 yards on only 5 carries, and Cory Finnerty added a touchdown reception. Vince Murray, who stepped in for an injured Alexander Teich, picked up 54 yards. Overall the Mids had a that’s-more-like-it 373 rushing yards, their highest total of the season. All is well, right?

We’ll see. Honestly, I’m not sure how much we really learned about the offense in this game. WKU is one of those rare teams that don’t physically outmatch the Mids, with players like a 5-11, 270-pound nose guard up front. Being smaller doesn’t mean that they can’t play, of course; it’s just not typical of what Navy is going to see for the rest of the season. On top of that, the WKU game plan wasn’t nearly as good as I thought it would be. Let’s take a look at Ricky’s first touchdown, a 29-yard option run. WKU came out in a similar double eagle-type look that we’ve seen all season. What that means is that they had 4 men on the line of scrimmage, but instead of being balanced on both sides of the center, they had a nose guard over the ball, two on one side of him, and one split wide on the other. Before the snap, one of the safeties comes down in run support and lines up within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. When he does so, he enters the count. This creates a numbers advantage on the other side of the formation. Ricky sees this, audibles, and runs the other way. The remaining safety spies the tail motion A-back, meaning there’s nobody to catch Ricky when he turns upfield.

WKU was doing this all afternoon. The safety biting on the tail motion is what made Cory Finnerty and Bobby Doyle so wide open on their pass plays. Eventually, the safety stopped spying the A-back and took the quarterback. He clocked Ricky, who might not have even seen him coming, but that left Marcus Curry free to run all over the field on the pitch. In the end, Navy’s offense had a big day… But they should have had a big day. The defense just wasn’t that good. Then again, after the Pitt game, a little confidence can’t hurt.

One can only hope that the defense doesn’t lose any. After being the strength of the team for the first three games, the unit did not exactly impress. Western Kentucky entered the game having a hard time moving the ball on anyone. I mean, Central Arkansas held them to 287 yards, so for the Mids to give up 434 yards to the Hilltoppers is a bit disturbing. Fortunately, with a fumble at the goal line, a missed field goal, and 10 (!) penalties, WKU did a pretty good job stopping themselves, and in the process demonstrated why they are 0-4.

The most troubling thing, given Navy’s next opponent, is that the play that the defense struggled the most against was the option. When WKU was running north-south, the Mids were their usual, immovable selves. When the Hilltoppers started running the zone read, though, the defense looked lost.

I say “zone read” because I’m not sure what else to call it. On the usual zone read play, the last down lineman on the back side of the play is left unblocked. If he heads for the mesh, the QB hands the ball off to the running back. If he starts running down the line to take the running back, the QB keeps and runs towards the space that his read vacated. That’s not really what WKU was doing, though. They blocked everyone at the line of scrimmage. The quarterback read a middle linebacker, and simply sent the ball wherever the ILB didn’t go:

This left the linebackers so preoccupied with the run that they bit hard on every run fake. Notice on this next play how the linebackers play the run. By moving to the line of scrimmage instead of dropping into coverage, it leaves a huge gap in coverage between the LBs and the secondary. The primary beneficiary was the tight end, Jack Doyle, who not only caught this pass, but five more for 80 yards. The TE would usually be covered by a linebacker.

Opposing quarterbacks looking like the second coming of John Hadl have been an all-too-frustrating trademark of the Navy defense over the last two years. Kawaun Jakes is a freshman, but against the Mids you wouldn’t have known. Now, you can’t mention the performance of the defense without also mentioning how depleted the unit was. Ram Vela, Clint Sovie, and Jabaree Tuani all either played sparingly, or played hurt. That forced Wyatt Middleton to play out of position, and he did not look comfortable at all at linebacker. If you asked me if this was just a bad day or if it was a sign of things to come for the defense, I’d take the former. And Blake Carter is still awesome on wheels.

Still, it’s not really a note of confidence on which to head into the Air Force game. That doesn’t mean it’s time to panic, either. Yes, the Mids stunk on option plays, but that’s not really the kind of stuff that Air Force runs. Actually, you could say there is a bit of silver lining in all this. We’ve seen the defense pick up the slack to help carry the team until the offense got in gear. We sort of expected that this year. But now we’ve seen the offense carry the game when the defense struggled, which can only boost that unit’s morale. Yeah, it was only Western Kentucky. But we should know by now that any win at Navy is a good win. I’ll take it.

GAME WEEK: WKU

Saturday’s game against Western Kentucky University marks the 50th anniversary of the first game ever played at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. The 1959 Navy team that beat William & Mary will be honored, and Navy will wearing absolutely killer-looking throwback uniforms. Fans will be treated to a vintage car show and commemorative posters of the occasion. It’s going to be quite an event. Of course, Navy games tend to be a bit of an event anyway, with the march-on and flyby and whatnot. WKU (they don’t like to be called “Western Kentucky”) head coach David Elson knows all about it.

“We are looking forward to going to Annapolis to play Navy. I’ve heard great things about the gameday experience up there. We have a lot of our fans making the trip so we look forward to trying to find a way to get our first win.”

This quote reminds me a little of Coach Niumatalolo’s pregame speech before last season’s opener against Towson.

Maybe it will feel a little circus-like this weekend as the Mids take on the Hilltoppers. Overcoming the distraction is just one more challenge for a pair of teams that could use a little bit of focus right now.

Elson’s squad enters the game with an 0-3 record that belies the program’s impressive I-AA history. WKU is the newest member of Division I-A, joining their basketball program in the Sun Belt Conference after having completed the second of two required transitional years in 2008. As a member of I-AA, the Hilltoppers had great success. Jack Harbaugh (Jim’s father) came to WKU as head coach in 1989, after spending two years as an assistant at Pitt. Harbaugh’s teams would win 91 games over the next 14 years, including seven straight winning seasons, four playoff berths, two conference titles, and the 2002 I-AA National Championship. The championship run is a story that could have come straight out of Hollywood; WKU was seeded 15th out of 16 teams, and beat #3 Western Illinois and #2 Georgia Southern on the way to a title game against #1 McNeese State– a team they lost to 38-13 earlier in the year. Harbaugh decided to go out on top, and retired after the ’02 season. He was replaced by Elson, who had been on Harbaugh’s staff since 1996 and had spent the last two seasons as defensive coordinator. The new head coach kept up the pace, beginning his tenure with 5 consecutive winning seasons and two playoff berths. The last of those winning season was a 7-5 campaign in 2007, the program’s first transition year after making the decision to jump to college football’s highest level.

The timing of the Hilltoppers’ move isn’t exactly the best. With the nation’s economy being what it is, most college athletic departments are doing just about anything they can to cut costs, whether it’s getting rid of media guides or taking buses to a few road games rather than chartering a flight. On the other hand, the move to I-A has forced WKU’s football budget to expand from $2.6 million in 2006 to $4.9 million this year, with 25 additional scholarships, increased coaching salaries, an expanded staff, and travel costs to pay for. A $50 million stadium renovation was also part of the I-A process, increasing the capacity of Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium from 17,500 to 23,500, plus adding new locker rooms, a club section, and a new scoreboard, among other things. To help offset the larger budget, WKU scheduled games on the road at Florida, Indiana, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Kentucky, and this year, Tennessee. With payouts like the $700K the Hilltoppers got from the Vols, games like these sure help the bottom line. They don’t do much for the team’s record, though. WKU went 2-10 last year, with both victories coming over I-AA oponents. After an 0-3 start to this season that included a 63-7 pasting in Knoxville and a 28-7 loss at home to I-AA Central Arkansas, WKU comes into Annapolis with an 11-game losing streak, the longest in the nation. That loss to Central Arkansas last week was especially tough. Nobody expected WKU to stroll into Knoxville and dropkick Tennessee, but there’s no doubt that they scheduled Central Arkansas with the intent of winning that game. They didn’t, and now the hecklers are coming out, taking coaches and players to task and even mocking the very decision to move to I-A in the first place. To their credit, the players say they don’t pay attention to these things. Any time the local paper is doing a story on what you think about the heaps of criticism you’re getting, though, you know things are probably looking bad.

Things probably won’t look too much better for WKU after this week. Life is hard when you only have 11 scholarship seniors; 57 of 85 scholarship players on the WKU roster are freshmen or sophomores. One of those freshmen is quarterback Kawaun Jakes. Adding injury to insult, starter Brandon Smith went out of the game last week with what is being described as a sprained shoulder. Although he’s still listed as first on the depth chart, and said after the game that he didn’t think the injury was too serious, Smith didn’t practice on Tuesday and has been described as “day-to-day.” If Smith isn’t able to play, Jakes will get his first career start. In relief of Smith, Jakes went 9-for-14 passing for 75 yards. Not earth-shattering, but respectable for a freshman stepping into a lousy situation. Enhancing the lousiness is an offensive line that was thought to be a strength of the team going into the season, but has been anything but. WKU has given up 13 sacks through 3 games, including 4 against Central Arkansas. The sack total is even more depressing when you consider that WKU’s quarterback are actually pretty decent runners. Smith actually leads the team in rushing, and had 102 yards on the ground in a 35-13 home loss to USF.

If the Hilltoppers have anything going for them this week, it’s that their coaching staff knows a thing or two about option football. Elson became quite familiar during his time on Harbaugh’s staff, when WKU was more or less an option team. From 1991 through Harbaugh’s final year in 2002, WKU ranked in the top ten in rushing offense each season, the only I-AA team to do so in that span. The 1997 team lead the nation, averaging 332 yards per game. The following year the Toppers rushed for 344.6 ypg and had the ninth-highest scoring offense, averaging 36 points per game. Elson’s defensive coordinator, Mike Dietzel, was Bob Sutton’s running backs coach when Army was running the option from 1995-1999. These guys know how Navy’s offense works, and should be able to craft a solid game plan. Whether a defense that features two freshmen and a sophomore on the line can execute that plan remains to be see.

For the Mids, this is a must-win game. If you’re sick of hearing that phrase, you’d better get used to it; with this year’s schedule, Navy can’t afford to drop what few games they’ll be favored in. Not only that, but with Air Force taking on a pretty terrible San Diego State team this week, they’re more than likely going to be 3-1 and have plenty of momentum heading into next week’s CIC Trophy opener in Annapolis. Navy does not want to be 1-3 and doubting themselves going into that game. The Mids also want to show that the Pitt game was not the kind of offensive performance we can expect from them the rest of the year. Quarterback Ricky Dobbs said that he was “disgusted” with his showing last Saturday, and I doubt he’s the only player to give himself assessment. Coach Niumatalolo called it “probably one of the worst performances we’ve had as a team for our program in a long time.” It will be important to him not only to win the game, but for the offense to redeem itself through its execution. Anything less, and it might be a sign of deeper issues.

PITT 27, NAVY 14

After some of his Navy teams’ less-than-stellar performances, Paul Johnson used to say that things were never as good or as bad as they seemed during the game. It wasn’t until the coaches looked at film that they were able to diagnose the root cause of the team’s struggles, and maybe catch a few things they did right, too. After I watched Navy flounder through a 27-14 loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday, I was hoping that I would achieve similar enlightenment. It’s better to wait a couple of days to let the emotion die down and look at the game more objectively, right? So I popped in the DVD, sat in my La-Z-Boy, pressed play, and…

JOHNSON YOU DECEIVER WHY MUST YOU LIE. It turns out that sometimes things are every bit as bad as they seem. That’s unfortunate, because holy guacamole did things seem bad on Saturday. Statistically, the Pitt game ranks as one of the worst offensive performances of the last eight years. The Mids were held to only 218 total yards, with a mere 129 coming on the ground. The passing game was no better, with Ricky Dobbs going 6-for-22 and getting sacked six times. The loss drops Navy to 1-2.

Sometimes the worst part isn’t that you lose, it’s how you lose. I think we all knew that Pitt was going to be a challenging game, with little margin for error if the Mids if they wanted a chance to win. If you give it your best shot but the other guys are just better, there’s no shame in that. Hell, if you listened to some people after the Ohio State game you’d be surprised to discover that Navy didn’t actually win. But if you go out there and just suck eggs through cocktail straws… Well, that’s different. And with the bevy of mental mistakes unleashed by the Mids, I think it’s safe to say that the game ranked somewhere between “Subject of the Naval Safety Center Photo of the Week” and “Orb of Confusion” on the mental acuity scale. First, there were the special teams blunders: a missed 32-yard field goal from pretty darn close to the middle of the field, and Kyle Delahooke somehow misfiring on a punt and dropping the ball to the turf. Then, there were the penalties, including two false starts, a delay of game, and an illegal motion call when the team was attempting to run the hurry-up offense at the end of the first half. These aren’t mistakes of the “trying so hard to make a play that I went a little too far” variety. No, these are straight WTFers. And that’s just the easy stuff; once you start digging, it just gets more frustrating.

Part of the additional frustration comes from seeing that Coach Jasper had what looked like a pretty interesting game plan, if the Mids could have just executed it. You will recall that in last year’s game, Pitt used the middle linebacker to spy on the quarterback with great success, as the Mids consistently whiffed when trying to block him. They employed the same tactic this year, and Coach Jasper was ready for it. First, he ran out of twin WR sets for most of the game. This forced the Pitt defense to adjust their formation, shifting linebackers to the strong side of the field. The MLB was now lined up not in the middle of the formation, but more directly in front of the slotback assigned to block him and making him easier to get to. That was the other adjustment– using a slotback instead of a tackle to block the MLB. The thinking is that a more agile player might be harder for the MLB to sidestep. The playside tackle would instead block the backside linebacker’s inside-out pursuit.

It was screwed up from the beginning.

Let’s take a look. Here’s how the teams lined up on Navy’s second play:

You can see the quarterback’s keys; the dive key is the first down lineman outside of the B gap, and the pitch key is the first defender lined up outside of #1 and within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. In this case, the pitch key is lined up over the inside wide receiver. Since he’s supposed to be left unblocked, the WR tries to block the run support safety. The slotback attempts to block the charging middle linebacker. Both miss. Ricky pitches the ball before he gets clobbered, but when you pitch off of a defender other than the pitch key, you risk either getting the pitch batted down, or getting the slotback creamed. On this play, it was the latter:

The same thing happened later in the half; this time, the pitch was dangerously close to getting returned the wrong way. Luckily, it ended up being a big gain instead:

Coach Jasper tried to give the slotbacks the chance to block the middle linebacker, but miss after miss forced Navy’s offensive coordinator to change tactics. The adjustment he made was to run a double option, using the fullback instead of the slotback to take out the linebacker. That’s exactly what Alexander Teich did. Unfortunately, the offensive line couldn’t do the same, and this play was stuffed like the others.

Undaunted, Coach Jasper turned to the midline option. With the playside slotback taking a more direct route to the linebacker, he was able to make the block. When Ricky was able to make the correct read, it was an effective play. When Ricky missed the read… not so much.

The aggressiveness of the middle linebacker enabled Coach Jasper to try some other things, too. Navy’s biggest play of the day came on a trap option, with the fullback becoming the pitch man. The play clicked because of an absolute textbook block by Osei Asante as he pulls to take out the defensive end. The play was attempted a few more times, but the pulling guards weren’t able to connect on their assignments.

With the Mids unable to execute any adjustment Jasper tried to make, he decided to come out in the second half with the bread & butter, getting back to basics. Ricky still struggled to make the right read on the give key:

BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! The quarterback certainly wasn’t the only player missing his reads. Not giving up, Jasper dipped into last year’s game plan and tried the unbalanced line, with two tackles on the same side of the formation. In the first play, the tackle is supposed to block the middle linebacker. Instead, he ends up blocking the pitch key. The slotback runs right by the LB, since his assignment was to block the run support safety.

In the second play, we have a variation on the same theme. This time it’s the slotback that blocks the pitch key, while his assignment, the run support safety, blows up the play.

It was like this the whole game; a seemingly endless parade of mental miscues. At this point Coach Jasper decided to take his chances throwing the ball, which is a whole other ball of wax. Navy threw 22 passes in this game, but that stat is a tad misleading. The Mids only attempted four passes, including one sack, through the bulk of the first half. It wasn’t until they got the ball back about a minute before halftime that they really took to the air, with four more pass attempts (plus another sack) on that possession alone. Another 13 attempts came in the fourth quarter, as Coach Jasper attempted to climb out of a 3-score deficit. Contrary to what some people believe, with 17 of Ricky’s 22 pass attempts coming in hurry-up situations, the game plan was not to step onto Heinz Field and start chucking the ball left and right. That’s a good thing, too, considering that the offense has given up 8 sacks in the last two weeks. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

For all my bellyaching about the offense, I am yet again encouraged by the play of the defense. After games against three bowl teams from a year ago, including Ohio State and a Pitt team expected to contend for the Big East crown, Navy’s defense has given up a shade under 300 yards per game this season. That’s a 50 ypg improvement over the 2003 and 2004 defenses– which were the best since Buddy Green came to Annapolis– against far stronger competition. After the opening drive, Pitt’s average starting field position on their scoring drives was their own 43-yard line– including the field goals. When the Navy defense was given some room to work with, they came through. Dion Lewis, the latest Pitt running back to make waves as a freshman, was held to a mere 79 yards rushing after running for 190 a week earlier. Even more importantly, the renewed emphasis on third dows over the spring and fall practice periods appears to be paying off, as the Mids held Pitt to only 5 of 15 on third down conversions. Yes, the defense gave up some crucial pass plays, but that’s going to happen, especially against BCS-caliber teams. So far the defense is turning out to be everything we expected it to be, and maybe a little more.

(By the way, the new official Birddog’s Favorite Player is Blake Carter. If “Thou shalt not miss an open-field tackle” was one of the Ten Commandments, then Blake Carter would be Pope.)

If you think about it, though, the offense is turning out the way they were expected to as well. I think that after the performance against Ohio State, people forgot how green the offense really is. Now might be a good time to recalibrate your expectations. Ricky is starting as a junior at a position where most of his counterparts have been seniors. The exceptions were Craig Candeto in 2002, who spent half the season hearing calls from fans for Aaron Polanco to start; and, of course, Kaipo, who ran this offense in the womb. Ricky doesn’t have the same luxury of learning over time, and is himself surrounded by other young players. These guys are learning on the job; talented enough to nearly pull a gargantuan upset, but inexperienced enough to potentially turn any game into a stinker like we saw against Pitt. It isn’t time to panic; it’s just important to understand that there is a learning process here that has been compressed.

GAME WEEK: PITT

Some games are just good for the soul. For me, Pitt is one of those games. Like any other BCS school not named Notre Dame, I certainly don’t want to see Navy play them every year; it’s just not a smart thing for a service academy to do. But once in a while, it feels good to see the Mids take on some of their old Eastern Independent rivals like Pitt, Syracuse, and Boston College (who knows if we’ll ever see Navy play Penn State again). Pitt has appeared on the Navy schedule off and on since 1912, when the Mids fought back after falling victim to an early goal line stand and came from behind to win, 14-6. Indeed, the Mids and the Panthers have a long history of notable games. In 1963, Pitt was undefeated and ranked #3 in the country when they came to Annapolis to take on the #11 Midshipmen. Four interceptions propelled Navy to a 24-12 win; it would be Pitt’s only loss of the season. Pitt won the national championship in 1976. Along the way, Tony Dorsett became the all-time rushing leader during his 180-yard, 3 TD performance at Navy. A different Pitt running back, Craig “Ironhead” Heyward, willed the Panthers to another victory over Navy in a 10-6 slugfest in 1987. And of course there was the Mids coming out on top in a 48-45, two-overtime thriller twenty years later. That was a great win for Navy, and one that I think is a bit underappreciated by some newer fans that don’t yet have a feel for the history between the two schools.

While I might be giddy with nostalgia whenever I think of the Navy-Pitt series, Pitt’s coaches don’t appear to be as excited. Every once in a while we come across coaches, especially from BCS conferences, that talk a little too much about the cut blocks that are such an integral part of the Navy offense. Stanford did under Walt Harris for example, as did Tom O’Brien at Boston College. Dave Wannstedt is one of those coaches. Back in 2007, it was all about having his linemen wear shin guards during practice. Last year, Wannstedt spent his press conference talking about his players getting “chopped.” This year, Wannstedt has resumed the chop block talk:

“They do a lot of chopping and cut blocks on the perimeter,” said Wannstedt, whose Panthers (2-0) play Navy Saturday. “There is no soft way, there is no non-physical way to simulate it without getting out there in full speed with full pads, and so today we’ll be out there doing it.

“You take a chance [of injury to defensive linemen]. We’ve always had conversations about taking a risk with our players, but we’ve always come to the conclusion that for us to play effectively Saturday we need to see it, and so we take a little bit of chance by going full speed and doing chop blocks.”

DUDE, WE GET IT. You’d think that there would be something else to talk about after three years of playing Navy, but I guess not. Wannstedt has been a football coach for 35 years. When he played, he was an offensive lineman. He is aware of the difference between a cut block and a chop block. He knows what he’s doing by saying Navy “chops;” he’s 1) buttering up officials, and 2) telling his AD that he doesn’t want to play Navy anymore. They’re a dirty spread option team, after all.

How Dave Wannstedt sees Midshipmen
How Dave Wannstedt sees Midshipmen

Despite Wannstedt’s wishes, his Pitt team will face Navy at Heinz Field on Saturday. There’s no TV for the game, which is somewhat surprising for a game between Navy and a team considered to contend for the Big East crown. If you want to watch, you need access to ESPN360, plus a computer and internet connection with the heft to handle it. It sucks not to see the game, but you could do a lot worse than listening to Bob, Omar, and John.

The team lined up against the Mids on Saturday will be a lot different from the one that thumped them 42-21 a year ago. Pitt’s convincing victory came on the backs of its star players. LeSean McCoy ran for 156 and 3 touchdowns, while middle linebacker Scott McKillop led the defense with 9 tackles to help contain the Navy rushing attack to only 194 yards. McCoy is now in the NFL, which might make Navy fans optimistic about the Mids’ ability to improve their performance this time around. But McCoy wasn’t the only back that ran all over the place that afternoon; LaRod Stephens-Howling punched in two TDs of his own, and Conredge Collins– the fullback— averaged 5.6 yards per carry whenever Pitt’s coaches felt like giving McCoy a break. There was no questioning McCoy’s ability, but the reality was that it wasn’t McCoy’s overwhelming talent that did the Mids in. Pitt just manhandled Navy.

Although the Panthers have a new offensive coordinator in Frank Cignetti, there’s little doubt that they’ll try to do the same this year. The offensive line features three seniors and a redshirt junior, and averages 293 pounds. In two games against Buffalo and Youngstown State, the Panthers have continued to show a commitment to running the ball, averaging 30 carries and 3 TDs per contest. The main beneficiary of this dedication has been McCoy’s replacement, tailback Dion Lewis. A 5-8, 195 lb. freshman from Albany, Lewis is smaller than McCoy, but that hasn’t mattered. He ran for 129 yards and two TDs in his debut, then followed it up with 190 more yards last week. Lewis is also the team’s second-leading receiver, with 8 catches. While it’s hard to jump to conclusions after two games with Youngstown State and Buffalo, the Pitt running game appears to be picking up right where it left off.

The Navy defense, however, is not, at least not from where Pitt last saw them. The Mids’ run defense in its first two games has been an absolute revelation. Louisiana Tech, believe it or not, was a top 30 rushing team in 2008. Last week against Navy last, they had only 11 yards. Ohio State had a top-flight running back of their own that they were looking to replace. The Mids held the Buckeyes to a respectable 153 yards on the ground. Even better than respectable is the way that Navy forced Ohio State to get those yards; very few came by running between the tackles. Most of that yardage came when Ohio State started running the option with Terrelle Pryor in the second half. The threat of a running quarterback is one thing that Navy won’t have to worry about this week, which could potentially make Pitt a better matchup for the Mids. Even if Navy doesn’t completely shut down the Pitt offense– and let’s be real, they won’t– the Mids have shown that they at least won’t be steamrolled again.

Pitt’s domination in 2008 was not limited to their running game. The Panthers were just as effective with their run defense, holding Navy to 100 yards below their season average. The key to Pitt’s gameplan was McKillop, who Navy simply wasn’t able to block. From his middle linebacker position, he was able to spy on Jarod Bryant on any triple option play, getting more or less a free shot at the quarterback at or near the line of scrimmage. Coach Jasper tried to adjust, even moving an extra tackle to the play side just to block McKillop; but the Big East defensive player of the year just ran around him. While defensive coordinator Phil Bennett says he’ll have some “new wrinkles”for Navy this year, it’s unlikely that he’ll stray too far from something that worked so well a year ago– especially if Adam Gunn keeps playing like he has. Gunn, granted a sixth year of eligibility after missing nearly all of 2008 with a broken neck, clearly intends to make the most of his second chance at football life. He already has five sacks through two games and leads the team in tackles with 19. Whether he’s as difficult to block as McKillop remains to be seen.

If Pitt does more of the same this year, it will be once again up to the tackles to make that block. If they are unable to do so, expect to see similar adjustments; an extra tackle, counters, some double option with the fullback assigned to block the MLB, or maybe even taking Teich outside on a fullback option. The Panthers aren’t quite as big up the middle as they were last year, so running the QB/FB midline might be a good way to force the middle linebacker to stay home. Coach Jasper tried that in last year’s game, only to see his o-line get repeatedly shoved into the backfield. That’s also a trend that will need to be fixed if Navy intends to take advantage of that great arm that Dave Wannstedt keeps hearing about.

Any BCS team, especially conference title contenders like Pitt, are going to be a huge challenge for Navy. With the defense playing the way it has, though, I don’t think it would be a stretch for the Mids to have a shot in this game. Easier said than done, maybe, but doable all the same.