A win is a win.
But a win over Rutgers?
Now that’s a GREAT win.

You’re not alone, Navy fans.

The Mids are out to an unfortunate 1-2 start, but they might not be the most disappointed team in Saturday’s game. No, Rutgers can just as easily make that claim. With losses to Fresno State and North Carolina to begin the season, Rutgers is off to an 0-2 start for the first time since 2002. For a team that’s coming off of its third consecutive bowl game and seeking consistency as an annual contender in the Big East, that’s no good. After an offseason full of controversy over just how Greg Schiano is being paid, and how their stadium additions are being funded, two losses by a combined score of 68-19 just adds insult to injury and keeps the bad vibes a-rollin’.

Rutgers got to those three straight bowl games following a simple formula. Run Ray Rice behind a talented offensive line. Use play action and throw to tight end Clark Harris or one of their sure-handed wide receivers. Play aggressive defense with speed at every position, including Eric Foster at defensive tackle. But the stalwarts of the past have moved on. Ray Rice is gone, as are some of the mainstays of the line that blocked for him. The wide receiver talent is still there with Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt, but Mike Teel has already thrown five interceptions this year. The once-swarming defense has given up an average of 181 rushing yards through two games, and their opponents are averaging 17 yards per completion. Something is amiss. Maybe it’s the competition. Fresno State is a good team, and North Carolina is probably on the rise under Butch Davis. Sure, but Rutgers should still be winning games like this, shouldn’t they? The wins of the past few years had to have helped on the recruiting trail, right? Of course. There’s no question that Rutgers has talent. Yet for whatever reason, it hasn’t come together yet.

Ah, but here comes Navy, the cure for what ails a slumping team. Well, a slumping offense, anyway. Going back to last year, several teams that had their share of offensive struggles found a way to get back on track against the Mids. Duke scored less than 20 points in 8 of its 12 games last year. Against Navy, they scored 43. Pitt scored 13, 14, and 14 points in the three weeks leading up to the Navy game, where they scored 45. Notre Dame was averaging 10 points per game before scoring 28 in regulation against Navy, and ending up with 44 after overtime. There’s no doubt that Rutgers coaches know this, and will be looking to get back to fundamentals.

But what, exactly, are those fundamentals? With Rice, Rutgers was running right at you. They tried the same with Kordell Young against Fresno State, but managed only 106 yards rushing. When the redshirt sophomore sat out against UNC with a sore knee, Schiano and offensive coordinator John McNulty opted to spread out a bit. That resulted in Teel and Jabu Lovelace combining for four interceptions. The offense is still trying to find something it does well. Given recent history, where Rutgers has been able to do pretty much whatever it wanted to on offense against Navy, and also given that Young is expected to return, my guess is that Schiano’s crew will try to get the running game back on track once again.

That would actually be good news for the Mids. While Thaddeus Lewis had another career day passing against Navy last week, the Mids’ defense looked surprisingly stout against the run. Third and long has been the achilles’ heel of the Navy defense, but with Teel’s accuracy problems, it might not be as bad this week. That’s if Navy can match its defensive performance against the run from last week on first and second down, which is far from a given. But it’s something, and having a little optimism about Navy’s defense is a nice feeling.

Offensively, Rutgers has always been one of the most frustrating games for me to watch every year. For all his supposed defensive genius, Greg Schiano doesn’t play a very good scheme against the Navy spread option. Rutgers is one of the few teams that actually likes to mix in straight man-to-man against the Mids:

Usually you pray that the defense plays man-to-man. By putting someone in motion, you can create a man advantage on the side the player motions away from. The only other team Navy plays that uses much man defense is Delaware. You usually see a couple plays in those games that you don’t see too much of the rest of the season. Here’s an example– the fullback option– from the 2004 game with the Blue Hens:

The motion slotback basically takes the run support safety in motion with him. When the backside guard pulls and blocks the defensive end, it leaves one person to cover both the quarterback and the fullback. The end result? A highlight.

Another play that man defense sets up is the quick pass to the wide receiver. When the slotback goes in motion and takes the safety with him, it leaves cornerback lined up on the receiver without any help behind him. One move, and the receiver can pick up a lot of yards:

The reverse can also work well against a man defense.

But the frustrating thing is that against Rutgers the last few years, none of this really mattered. The Scarlet Knights have done such a good job shedding blocks, and have gotten so much penetration into the backfield, that the offense has never had a chance to really get on track. For all the talk about lining up against huge defensive lines every week, it’s been Rutgers’ smaller, faster linemen that have given Navy the most trouble over the years. That makes this week all about execution for Navy, and unfortunately, that hasn’t really been a strength of the offense so far. But with Kaipo, Kettani, White, and tackle Andrew McGinn all expecting to finally be on the field together for the first time this year, maybe this is the game where the offense finally breaks out. It can’t come at a better time.

To achieve a sixth-straight winning record, Navy is going to need a win over a team it isn’t supposed to beat. No time like the present.

It was announced today that Navy and CBS College Sports have agreed to a 10-year extension on their broadcast contract. You already knew that because Chet (and I) told you last week. But tucked into the end of the official release is this:

During the length of the agreement, CBS College Sports Network will broadcast notable match-ups including games against Wake Forest; Air Force; East Carolina; Ohio State; Pittsburgh; Rutgers; Texas Christian University; Northwestern; Duke; Ole Miss and Syracuse.

Well that’s news. I thought we weren’t going to play ACC teams anymore, but I guess there’s a new Duke contract. Can’t wait to see when these games are scheduled.

It isn’t time to panic yet. Well, except for EagleBank Bowl officials. You guys can panic, but only because your business is at stake.

Duke took down the Mids, 41-31, on a steamy Saturday afternoon in Durham. Thaddeus Lewis and Eron Riley picked up where they left off last year, hooking up for three touchdowns. Lewis finished with 317 passing yards, 137 of those going to Riley. Tyree Barnes led Navy with 113 receiving yards, most of which came on a 68-yard throwback screen pass that went for a touchdown. Shun White ran for 112 yards and a touchdown of his own.

The game started out well enough. Not surprisingly, Duke marched down the field and scored on their first posession of the game. But even though they scored, it was clear that Navy’s defense was playing a LOT better than it had against Towson and Ball State. Instead of receivers parking themselves between zones and catching passes without a Mid close enough to spit a watermelon seed on him, these passes were actually… contested. Occasionally Duke would try to run the ball… and they couldn’t. They ran wide receiver screens… and they weren’t automatic touchdowns. Blue Devils that carried the ball… were tackled. Were we seeing things? Was this Navy?

Yessir, that was Navy. The justifiably maligned Midshipmen defense displayed what every coach, fan, and player prays for– improvement. And while the Mids did falter on that opening drive, that would be the only touchdown they would give up in the half. Yes, third down was still a problem. And yes, they did give up a pair of field goals. But trading field goals for touchdowns is the formula that has worked for Navy for five years now; don’t give up the big play, then tighten up in the red zone. The Navy defense appeared to have returned to the form that we had been accustomed to.

And for a while, the offense did too. We finally saw Kaipo take his first snaps of the season. He was rusty at first. Obviously not comfortable pushing the limits of his injured hamstring, Kaipo lacked the explosive first step he would otherwise use to catapult himself down the field. This led to an errant pitch on one play, but the more snaps he took, the more comfortable Kaipo appeared. In fact, his longest run of the day was a 10-yard plow up the middle of the field on a midline option, where he broke a couple of tackles and picked up a first down. Unfortunately, the weather and Kaipo’s lack of conditioning after being out for six weeks finally did him in, and the long-striding Hawaiian left the game due to heat exhaustion. But for a while, the Navy offense actually looked like the Navy offense again, and the Mids went into halftime with a 24-20 lead.

Oh how I wish I could just end right there, since the second half was a much different story. The offense disappeared after halftime; other than Barnes’ touchdown catch and run, Navy could only muster 62 yards. That’s pretty incredible. With two three and outs and an inexcusable turnover on downs (more on that later) to open the third quarter, the offense didn’t give the defense very much field position to work with. The defense rose to the challenge after the first 3 & out, forcing a Duke punt. But that punt was downed at the Navy 1-yard line, and after the offense again failed to pick up a first down, Kyle Delahooke’s punt only went 29 yards. Stopping a drive that started on the Navy 38 was a little too much to ask for, and Duke punched it in for 6 to take the lead for good. With the offense sputtering, the Navy defense spent a lot of time on the field and just got worn out. Duke’s average starting field position on their three TD drives in the second half was the Navy 42. Any defense, not just Navy’s, would have a hard time keeping teams out of the end zone when put in that position.

So maybe I’m the only one who feels this way, but I actually feel a little optimistic after this game. With Kaipo in the game, the offense played the way we need it to. And the defense looked like a whole new unit out there. We don’t have much wiggle room in the rest of the schedule– we’ll probably have to win a game we aren’t “supposed” to. And the defense will have to keep up the improvement. And we’ll all be anxiously awaiting word on Kaipo and Eric Kettani’s conditions. For one half, we saw a little bit of what this team is capable of, and that’s good. But right now we’re walking on the wrong side of a very fine line.

Some stream-of-consciousness thoughts on the game:

— At 1:13 left in the second quarter, Coach Niumat gave the defense a tremendous compliment. With Duke facing 3rd and 9 from their own 14 yard line, he called timeout. He called timeout. In college, 1:13 is plenty of time to march an offense into at least field goal range. Given Navy’s unfortunate habit of giving up big plays on 3rd down, that could have led to disaster. But it didn’t. The defense came through and forced an incomplete pass. That forced Duke to punt. Mario Washington returned it into Duke territory, and Jarod Bryant led the offense in for a go-ahead touchdown before the half. The defense earned Niumat’s trust, and it led to points…

— …which makes the decision to go for the first down on 4th & 1 from our own 38 all the more confounding. Duke had just taken the lead when a combination of bad starting field position and a bad punt gave them the ball at the Navy 38. When Jarod Bryant was stopped for no gain, Navy’s defense had their backs against the wall again. I could understand going for it if this was one of those back-and-forth games where one drive without a touchdown meant certain doom. But it wasn’t, and Niumat’s confidence in his defense in the second quarter demonstrated that. Why he wouldn’t punt there to give his defense some better field position, I have no idea. It was an unnecessarily desperate move.

— Before I pile onto Kyle Delahooke too much, his 46-yard rocket in the first quarter did force the returner to backpedal and fumble. Punting certainly hasn’t been a problem this year.

— There’s no question that the playbook shrinks when Jarod Bryant is in the game. The problem isn’t his execution of the plays that are called, it’s just that those plays don’t work anymore. Remember when Kaipo came in for Brian Hampton after his injury in the 2006 Rutgers game? Rutgers blitzed their linebackers on every play. Well, that’s pretty much what Duke did in the second half, and it overwhelmed the offensive line. Jarod was effective in relief last year because he was a change of pace. But now he’s the main event. That means he’s on a lot of film, and it’s apparent that the book is out on him. Ball State was prepared for the Navy offense. Duke was prepared for the Jarod Bryant offense. It doesn’t take Knute Rockne to see that JB carried the ball 31 times against Ball State, so you should probably key in on him.

Navy’s one second half touchdown came on a long pass play, not on a sustained drive. The offense just couldn’t put any effective plays together.

— There is no question that Shun White is a special player. That said, it’s time to stop forcing the ball to him. Shun had 15 carries against Duke. This came after he got 13 carries against Ball State and 19 carries against Towson. We all knew what the deal was against Towson. But now, it’s a pattern. The strength of this offense does not lie in the ability of one playmaker to move the ball. The strength of this offense lies in the defense not knowing who will get the ball. You undermine that strength when you give the defense someone to key in on. Shun’s 13 carries against Duke are more than double what the rest of the slotbacks have gotten in the last two games combined. Why? Shun’s good, but are the other slots not? They certainly look effective on those rare opportunities. A lot of Zerbin Singleton’s success last year came because defenses were more concerned about Reggie. Well, now they’re keying on Shun.

Shun is the best home run threat. But singles and doubles can keep a rally going, too.

Defense played to win
But without Kaipo, the O
Just isn’t the same.

Paul Johnson did a lot of things for the Navy football program. The most visible improvement was in his offense, but there are people who will tell you that the most important change he made was in attitude. Johnson went to battle with what he called the “country club” mentality on the football team, and the roster ended up shrinking because of it. Kind of like a less dramatic “Junction Boys” phenomenon. Johnson also made several requests of athletic department and school leadership to help facilitate his changes. Johnson’s approach to the game and direction of the program were every bit as important to Navy’s revival as his spread option wizardry.

In many ways, the same can be said of David Cutcliffe at Duke. Not the spread option part, obviously. But Cutcliffe also has a reputation as a master of offense. And in the same fashion as the first days of Johnson’s tenure at Navy, change is already underway. Like Johnson, Cutcliffe has used conditioning as a sort of symbol of the new team attitude, and even challenged his team to lose weight. And for once, the Duke administration appears to be on board with the football program, too. Back in May, the university approved a strategic plan to improve all sports, with football as a centerpiece. The plan includes a facilities upgrade (to include an indoor practice facility and stadium renovations), an increase in pay for assistant coaches, and easing up a bit on the OOC schedule. Sound familiar? It should. Duke used programs like Navy– an academically challenging school with recent success on the football field– as models in how to set their own course for success. Long the butt of jokes in the ACC and college football in general not only for their lack of wins but also for their administration’s apparent apathy (paging John Feinstein), Duke finally appears serious about playing competitive football.

That’s all fine and dandy, but future plans for stadium renovations don’t mean squadoosh when it comes to Saturday’s game. David Cutcliffe, however, does. Cutcliffe has a reputation for knowing how to run an offense. A long-time assistant at Tennessee, he was their offensive coordinator during the Volunteers’ national championship season in 1998. When Tommy Tuberville left Ole Miss to take the Auburn job, the Rebels turned to Cutcliffe to replace him. Cutcliffe won 60% of his games at Ole Miss, the highest percentage of anyone in school history who coached at least four seasons. But after Eli Manning’s senior year, the Rebels finished with a 4-7 record. Cutcliffe became the victim of an itchy trigger finger and was let go. Phil Fulmer was more than happy to bring him back onto his staff at Tennessee.

Cutcliffe would seem to be the perfect fit at Duke, who has brought in a fair amount of talent here & there but never seemed to have the coaching oomph to bring it all together. Not sold on Duke’s talent? Only three quarterbacks in ACC history (Philip Rivers, Drew Weatherford, and Charlie Whitehurst) have thrown for more yards than Thaddeus Lewis to start their careers. And Duke wasn’t nearly as good as those NC State, FSU, and Clemson teams. Lewis has gone five straight games without throwing an interception, and is second only to the older Weatherford in touchdown passes among active ACC quarterbacks. Deep-threat wide receiver Eron Riley averaged a ridiculous 20.8 yards per catch last season to go along with 9 touchdowns. Second-team All-ACC a year ago, he could probably start for any ACC team. The Blue Devils may have found another receiver to take advantage of defenses concentratin on Riley, as freshman Johnny Williams caught 11 passes for 135 yards last week against Northwestern. On defense, linebackers Michael Tauiliili and Vincent Rey are both considered pro prospects, as is DT Vince Oghobaase.

Unlike Johnson’s first year at Navy, Cutcliffe has some legitimate playmakers to work with from the start. Can Duke win right away? Maybe, maybe not… But if the ACC is as lackluster as advertised, would it really be much of a stretch? Nobody looks unbeatable in this league. Either way, the players certainly think they can win. And if they want to win six games to reach the magical land of bowl eligibility with a schedule that includes Miami, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Clemson, then there’s no doubt that they view Navy as a game they must– and should– win.

It might be a little early to call it a “must-win” game for Navy, but not by much. 1-1 coming into the Duke game, the Mids have Rutgers and Wake Forest following this weekend’s contest– two difficult matchups. Lose to Duke, and there’s a real chance of being 1-4 going into the Air Force game. No, I’m not giving up on those games or the season or any other wailing and gnashing of teeth, but it’s important to be real. You may scoff because it seems trite, but don’t underestimate momentum. You do NOT want to be on a four-game losing streak going into the first game of the CIC Trophy series.

The big question for Navy this week is how Kaipo will perform. He’s practiced all week, but he’s out of shape. It probably won’t be a factor early on, but it’s going to be a hot day in Durham, and tired people are more prone to mistakes and sloppiness. There’s no doubt in my mind that kaipo at 85-90% is better for the offense than Jarod Bryant at 100%; he won’t run as well, but Ivin Jasper will have more of the playbook at his disposal. Well, assuming that the offensive line plays better, anyway. If not, they could stick Gary in at quarterback and it probably wouldn’t matter.

Nor will it matter if the defense doesn’t play better. Cutcliffe is going to throw the ball, and Lewis and Riley showed last year that they can carry the load if they’re asked to. It only took two weeks under Cutcliffe for Thaddeus Lewis to set his career high in completions with 24, breaking his previous best of 23 that he set last year in Annapolis. Duke’s offensive line isn’t as massive as they were last year (perhaps a byproduct of Cutcliffe’s goal of a leaner, meaner team), so perhaps the defensive line can make a few plays. Perhaps… If anyone knows that size isn’t everything on the offensive line, it’s us, and the Blue Devils have only given up two sacks so far. But if there is one mistake that Duke has shown a tendency to make, it’s fumbling (4 in two games). If this year’s game is anything like last year’s, turnovers will be even more crucial than usual.

OK, so nothing I’ve said is all that profound, but with a new coaching staff in Durham it’s kind of hard to predict how they’ll line up. I’m pretty sure that the book on Navy is to spread out the Mids’ defense, and I expect every team left on the schedule not named “Army” will be doing that. Offensively, I always like seeing Navy go against defensive coordinators who come from the NFL (as both of Duke’s listed D-coordinators do) because I hope that they’ve forgotten everything they once knew about stopping the option. I have no stats to back up my optimism, but I keep telling myself that.

Anyway, hope for a happy haiku.

I’m going to start with a lonely bit of good news, since I’m afraid I’ll forget to mention it after I finish talking about the game. Seriously, after the Chargers lost yesterday, not even Hole In The Wall could save my weekend. Anyway, on the pregame show Friday night, Chet announced that he is wrapping up a ten-year extension to Navy’s TV contract with CBS College Sports. Ten years! Not only is it good news, but the length of the extension is a pretty good indicator that the partnership has been beneficial for CBS, too. Interestingly, Chet mentioned that he was aware of CBS’s intent to acquire CSTV back when he signed the original contract. I’m sure that was a big factor in choosing CSTV over ESPN at the time. He also said that he’s close to signing a 10-year extension with CBS for the Notre Dame game as well. An extension for the Army-Navy contract is also in the works with CBS, but isn’t quite as close to being finalized.

Speaking of TV, ESPN’s broadcast of the game was terrible. How many times did we miss a play because they were showing Kaipo walking around on the sideline, or drag racing corvettes, or some random coach in the coaches’ box, or some animated graphic that took too long to get off the screen? Now I’m going to have to wait for the NAAA 2008 highlight DVD to see the entirety of Eric Kettani’s big run. Come on, ESPN. Nothing you’re showing is more important than the game on the field.

Anyway, enough putting off the misery.

In her 1969 book, On Death and Dying, Elisabeth Kübler-Ross described how people deal with loss and bad news by introducing the now-famous “Five Stages of Grief.” Those five stages are:

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

Congratulations, Navy fans. By now, you’ve probably moved from the “denial” stage to the “anger” stage. That’s progress. Unfortunately, it’s more progress than the Navy defense has made since last year (ZING). Anyway, let’s take a look at the things we were all in denial about before the season, or maybe even after the Towson game.

1) Jarod Bryant is ready to run the offense.

No, no he isn’t. I was very much in denial on this one. Hey, he had all spring and most of fall practice as the #1 guy. He looked good in the spring game, which I know isn’t all that important, but it’s something. And in general, Navy quarterbacks make a lot of improvement between their junior and senior years. Yeah, well, so much for generalities. We didn’t see much in the Towson game. I mean, sure, he looked like he missed a couple of option reads, but it’s rare for any quarterback to be perfect. But against Ball State, the offense was basically in shackles. After unsuccessfully trying a few triple option plays in the first quarter, the offense reverted to the proverbial phone booth. It looked remarkably similar to last year’s Northern Illinois game, although I’m not going to go back and count each play this time. I don’t need to. When the quarterback is getting 31 carries, and when one individual A-back is getting 13, then you know you aren’t looking at a genuine option offense. The ball just wouldn’t be distributed that way if you were. Unfortunately, Ball State’s offense is a wee bit better than NIU’s, and the Mids couldn’t match them.

(Side note: in the question of “was Coach Niumat right to kick field goals instead of going for the first down,” the answer is clearly YES. Navy was able to come back and take the lead in the third quarter even after all those field goals, so isn’t like they took the Mids out of the game. Don’t be second-guessing. Be happy that Matt Harmon can hit a 49-yard field goal with leg to spare.)

But if Jarod struggles with the offense, then why was he so effective last year coming in to relieve Kaipo? For a couple reasons. Fresh legs vs. a tired defense, obviously. But more importantly, the plays called to suit Jarod just work better as a mid-game adjustment to throw off a defense rather than something to be used for an entire game. It works a lot better coming out of the blue than it does as something that can be planned for and adjusted to.

There’s no question that Jarod can run. But the offense just isn’t as effective when he’s under center.

2) The offensive line is fine.

But let’s not turn this into a Jarod Bryant dogpile, now. While he didn’t have a great game, he wasn’t alone. The offensive line struggled. There were a lot of position changes on the line in the offseason. They never realy seemed to come together during the fall scrimmages, reaching their nadir in the infamous “no-score” scrimmage. The Towson game didn’t present many problems, but Ball State sure did. The Cardinals were one of the smaller defensive fronts that Navy will face this year, and they got great penetration into the Navy backfield the whole game. This forces the quarterback to take an arc instead of a straight line parallel to the line of scrimmage when running the option, which throws off timing. Smaller defensive lines seem to have more success doing this– Rutgers comes to mind. But Ball State’s defense is not Rutgers.

Maybe this isn’t fair, since I’m comparing this line to last year’s, which was phenomenal and the best I can remember at Navy. Regardless, though, things probably aren’t going to get any easier the rest of the year.

3) The defense is better!

But let’s be real. Even with all their problems, the offense still put up 23 points and 346 yards rushing. That isn’t a bad game statistically. On the other hand, the defense was horrible. i don’t know what to say. We’ve heard that things would be better this season, now that the Mids are free of injury and are a year older and wiser. If that’s the case, we’ve yet to see any evidence of it. The tackling that appeared to be improved in the Towson game was apparently only better BECAUSE it was the Towson game. Against Ball State, tackling was terrible. And everyone wanted to see tighter coverage in the passing game. We did… for about three plays. One pump fake and one touchdown later, it didn’t seem like such a good idea anymore.

It would be one thing if Ball State just “out-athleted” Navy, but they didn’t. Not that I’m saying that they couldn’t, but they didn’t have to. Receivers were so wide open, they didn’t have to be any good to catch passes. Meanwhile, Ball State averaged 5.6 yards per rush, too. They did come up with a couple of interceptions, but that isn’t enough. You can’t rely on that. There’s no reason why Navy’s defense can’t be as good as Air Force’s or even Army’s. They don’t have to be the Steel Curtain, but maybe they could force a punt once in a while. If there isn’t serious improvement here, it’s going to be a long season. Especially if Kaipo isn’t healthy.

I’m probably not saying anything you haven’t already thought to yourself.