How you feel about Saturday’s 33-27 victory at Air Force probably depends on your frame of reference.

In the context of the 2008 season, it was not a very good game for the Mids. It was a win, so it wasn’t a disaster; but that doesn’t mean that everyone played well. The Navy defense, so stout a week ago at Wake Forest, took a step backwards. Air Force was able to pile up 411 yards of offense, the most they’ve had against I-A competition this year. Navy was never able to contain the pitch man on the option, and the Falcons made more big plays in the passing game than they had in their other four games combined. It didn’t get any better on the offensive side of the ball. Navy’s 244 yards of total offense was the team’s lowest output since the 2006 Rutgers game, when Brian Hampton’s shin was involuntarily separated from his thigh. As expected, the offense sputtered under Jarod Bryant. Shun White was a non-factor in the running game other than his fumble, Tyree Barnes didn’t have a catch, and the Mids were outrushed 227-206. You could say that Navy was lucky to win this game.

Those of us who have been Navy fans all our lives might see things a little bit differently. There was a time when the idea of beating Air Force with half our offense tied behind our back was completely unfathomable. Air Force used to be so talented relative to Navy that only a flawless effort in every phase of the game would give the Mids a chance. Now, the tables have turned. Not only did Navy win with a watered-down offense, but they scored 33 points! For me, Navy’s victory on Saturday was nothing short of brilliant.

Before the game I said that as long as Jarod Bryant took care of the ball, Navy’s playmakers should carry the day. Early on, taking care of the ball appeared to be a lot easier said than done, as both Jarod and Shun White coughed up fumbles that were recovered by Air Force. But for the most part, the offense settled down and the plays started to come. Bryant himself turned in a 29-yard run to set up a field goal. Shun White pulled in a pass for 38 yards that set up another field goal. Matt Harmon kicked the field goals to finish those drives, plus two more. Greg Shinego and Blake Carter each blocked punts. Nate Frazier was an absolute nightmare. Nate completely owned the center all afternoon; there were at least three plays where he was in the backfield so fast that he nearly tackled the quarterback before he could hand the ball off. You don’t think those fumbled snaps were a fluke, do you? Nate was in the center’s head. That wasn’t an accident. The bottom line is that when all was said and done, Navy made more plays because they had the players that could.

I know that probably isn’t enough for some of you, especially when the offense looked so ineffective. Why didn’t Ivin Jasper open up the playbook a little more? Well, because he didn’t have to. Navy was the better team. The only way that Air Force would win this game is if the Mids turned the ball over. So why take the chance at opening up the playbook with a quarterback that we all know isn’t as comfortable with running the offense? Air Force never led by more than 3 points, and never led after halftime. Navy had a two-score lead in the 4th quarter. So why tempt fate? What would be the point? If it appeared that things might get out of hand, you probably would have seen things open up a bit more. But Coach Jasper never had to.

Calling plays in this offense, like most offenses, isn’t just a matter of picking out a bunch of awesome plays and sending them in. There’s a natural progression, where each play sets up other plays later in the series. The problem is that for the Navy offense, the play that almost everything else is based off of is the triple option. Without that, it’s hard to open up the playbook effectively. Sure, there were still things that could be done to mix things up a bit more, but Jarod fumbled three times even playing conservatively. He isn’t a particularly good passer, and he was having trouble pitching the ball. That’s the sort of stuff you’d have to do to open up the offense, and the more you put those things to the test, the more you flirt with disaster.

It wasn’t the prettiest game, but “pretty” is overrated. The bottom line is that despite last year’s expert analysis from their athletic director, Team Jesus Christ lost to Navy for the sixth straight year. Nobody has won the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy yet, but at least we know where it isn’t going.

Some other thoughts:

— Air Force backup quarterback Tim Jefferson led the Falcons’ last scoring drive. He looked impressive… The same way Jarod Bryant looked impressive in the 4th quarter against Duke last year. It’s amazing what fresh legs can do against a tired defense. Those of you inclined to worry about everything Air Force may want to hold off on the whole “Oh noes he’s going to be awesome!!!” talk for a little while. I don’t want to be hearing about his impending Heisman Trophy the way I had to hear about Shaun Carney for four years.

— Hats off to the coaching staff for going after Air Force’s first punt. When you know that your offense isn’t going to have a good day, trying to make a play on special teams is a smart move. As for the second punt, that looked like more of an individual effort on Blake Carter’s part.

— Speaking of the second punt block… I’m not usually a fan of going for two points unless it’s truly necessary, but after Bobby Doyle recovered the ball in the end zone for a touchdown in the 4th quarter, Niumat really should have gone for the two-point conversion. With only ten minutes left in the game, a 13-point lead is no better than a 12-point lead; either way, the other team needs two touchdowns to win. But with a 14-point lead, two touchdowns most likely sends you to overtime. Maybe Niumat thought 10 minutes was enough time for Air Force to score a TD and two field goals?

— The stat sheet won’t reflect it, but Eric Kettani played a monster game. Almost every one of his 75 yards came after first contact. Take next Saturday off, Eric. You’ve earned it.

— Matt Harmon was 4 for 4 on field goals, including a 48-yarder as time expired in the first half and a 44-yarder into the wind. He is second in the country with 2.33 FGs per game, and his 93.3% accuracy leads all kickers with at least 10 attempts. He should get serious consideration for All-America honors.

In the poll question for the week, I asked what you thought was Navy’s biggest win since 2003. It was a stupid way to phrase the question, since the tear-jerking, now-I-can-die-in-peace awesomeness that was the ’07 Notre Dame game was sure to be the clear winner. I mean, really… How many other games over the last five years left you sobbing with joy? (Don’t act like you didn’t). That said, even if I rephrased the question to “what was the most important Navy win since 2003,” most of you would probably still say Notre Dame. I disagree; I think there’s an important distinction between “big” and important.” In my opinion, the most important win for the Navy program since Paul Johnson was hired was the 28-25 win over #25 Air Force in 2003.

I’m sure that seems like a stretch to some of you. After all, it’s a year later and you probably still feel a bit of disbelief over Navy finally being free from the yoke of that abominable losing streak. I sure do. But try to take emotion out of the equation for a minute. The pool of potential recruits for service academies is very small. As a result, all three schools compete with each other for the same kids. Being top dog amongst the three is a huge advantage. Now think back to 2003. Air Force was ranked 25th in the coaches’ poll coming into that game after a 24-10 win over BYU the previous week had moved them to 5-0. The Falcons hadn’t had a losing record in 10 years, and hadn’t lost to Navy since Paul Johnson’s first stint in Annapolis. They were clearly the dominant service academy football program, and for the most part won any head-to-head recruiting battle they had with Navy and Army. Shaun Carney might have been the only recruit classless enough to actually tell his Naval Academy hosts that they’d never beat Air Force, but there’s no way that he was the only one who was thinking that way. Why wouldn’t they? The track record spoke for itself. Fisher DeBerry was a legend, and when he “sent a message” by trying to run up the score in Air Force’s 48-7 win over Navy a year earlier, he was sending it to recruits as much as he was to Paul Johnson and the Navy team. The message? That nothing had changed. Air Force was still Air Force, and Navy was still Navy. Recruits had to rely on faith when Navy coaches told them better times were ahead. Air Force coaches had something a little more tangible– the Commander in Chief’s Trophy.

All that changed in 2003. Craig Candeto punched in a 2-yard touchdown run in the second quarter, and Navy never trailed for the rest of the game. The 28-25 Navy win was a watershed moment for both programs. From that point on, recruits didn’t have to take Paul Johnson’s word for it; they knew he could beat Air Force. Navy would go on to win six of its last eight games that season and earn a berth in the Houston Bowl, the first of five straight bowl games for the Mids. Air Force would move in the opposite direction, losing four of its next six to finish 7-5 and out of the bowl picture after that 5-0 start. It would be Fisher DeBerry’s last winning season at Air Force, as the veteran coach retired in 2006 after limping to a 4-8 record. For those four years from 2003-2006, Navy enjoyed the “seeing is believing” recruiting boost that Air Force once owned, resulting in the talented roster that you see today.

In a strange way, history is repeating itself. Given that Navy has won five straight games in the series, it’s a bit odd that it’s Ken Niumatalolo who seemingly has something to prove. Troy Calhoun lost to Navy in his first shot against the Mids, but he did lead Air Force to a 9-4 record in 2007. It was enough for various media members to proclaim the resurgence of Air Force football and hail Troy Calhoun as the real deal. Niumatalolo, however, hasn’t received the benefit of the doubt. The media consensus is that Navy just isn’t as good without Paul Johnson, even though most of those making that claim either A) almost certainly haven’t even seen Navy this year, or B) never gave Navy any credit even with Paul Johnson. Air Force was just held to 53 yards rushing against Utah while Navy is coming off of back-to-back wins over BCS opponents, including what was the highest-ranked team in the ACC; but Navy still opened the week as a 6-point underdog. For some reason, the media seems eager to hand the service academy crown back to Air Force, which makes this game as crucial to the Navy program as the 2003 game was. Recruits read the newspaper, too. Winning this game would make Coach Niumat’s job a lot easier by helping to maintain momentum on the recruiting trail.

That makes it a particularly bad time for him to lose his starting quarterback. While not an absolute certainty, Kaipo’s hamstring is probably going to keep him on the sideline once again, and Jarod Bryant will get the call to start his third game of the season. It’s been a rough season for Jarod so far. In the second quarter at Wake Forest, Jarod relieved Kaipo for the second time in three weeks. And just like in the Duke game, the offense screeched to a halt… at first. Unlike in the loss to the Blue Devils, the offense recovered a bit in the fourth quarter. First there was a toss sweep to Bobby Doyle that went for 39 yards and finally moved Navy away from their own endzone. The next drive produced a 57-yard run by Eric Kettani that set up the game-clinching touchdown. Neither were option plays, but the Doyle run was a result of an audible called by Bryant at the line of scrimmage. The Mids were lined up in the same unbalanced line that we saw against Rutgers. Jarod saw a numbers advantage on the short side of the field and changed the direction of the play. It was a good check by the highly-scrutinized signal-caller, and something that Coach Niumatalolo says should give him some confidence heading into this week.

Maybe it will. But what difference does “confidence” really make? The knock on Jarod was never his ability to read a defense at the line of scrimmage. It was his option reads after the snap. Confidence in what you’re doing is important, but does it help a quarterback identify and react to a mesh charge or a squat any better? It’s debatable. On one hand, you certainly don’t want to hesitate or second-guess what you’re doing. There’s no time to think; everything has to be a quick reaction to what you see. On the other hand, it’s just as easy to be confidently wrong. A fast reaction that gets yourself drilled in the backfield doesn’t do any good either. That seems to be what happens to Jarod. The most frustrating thing about all this is that we’ve seen Jarod make the right reads before. When Kaipo injured his knee in last year’s Ball State game, Jarod played the entire second half. At first, Paul Johnson called a lot of plays that were predetermined carries, especially the toss sweep. But as the half progressed, Coach Johnson starting mixing more of the triple option in. And Jarod did fine. Hell, by leading Navy on a comeback and putting the team in position to win the game at the end, you could even say it was better than just “fine.” So what happened? Why was Jarod able to run the triple against Ball State last year, but not since? Part of it is that Ball State didn’t exactly do anything to make things hard for Jarod; they gave him the same read almost every time. But perhaps another part of the problem comes from confidence that was lost somewhere along the way. Or maybe I’m just reaching. As I type this, I keep telling myself that talking so much about something as generic as “confidence” sounds trite. Then again, a little confidence has worked wonders for the defense the last couple of weeks. Do I let myself feel as optimistic about the offense?

Maybe. With Jarod Bryant at quarterback, the triple option hasn’t been available. That’s the one play that everything else in the offense feeds off of. The coaches say that they call plays differently because Jarod’s a better inside runner, but that’s because they don’t want to throw the poor guy under the bus. Think about it– they didn’t move him to slotback because of his ability to run between the tackles. I’m sure the coaches would love to see Jarod get to the edge, but he just hasn’t been able to read his way there. So the question is how effective Jarod will be, and whether the coaches will be forced to put him back into a protective playcalling bubble. If he can put it together, he will have a lot going for him. First and foremost is the re-emergence of Eric Kettani the last two weeks. Wake Forest paid a lot of attention to Shun White; so much so that Eric had some gaping holes to run through. With 300 yards in his last two games, Eric has shown that he is healthy enough that defenses need to respect the middle of the field. That helps to open things back up for Shun. Bobby Doyle’s big run last week is good news, too. Coach Jasper should be a bit more confident that his other slots should be able to make a play. At the very least, it’s one more thing to make a defense hesitate from keying too much on Shun.

Something else to to watch during the game is the matchup of the Navy offensive line with the front seven of Air Force. When Ken Niumatalolo was asked before the season why he moved Ricky Moore to center, the first thing out of his mouth was, “Air Force.” Air Force runs a base 3-4 defense. Against Navy, they like to move the two outside linebackers to the line of scrimmage to present a 5-man front. The odd front means that the nose guard is usually lined up directly on top of the center. Ricky Moore is bigger than other recent Navy centers, and the idea is that a bigger center will help open up more room for the fullback by moving that nose guard. If it works, that’s even better news for Kettani.

For Air Force, it’s the second straight year where they’ve started out 3-1 when logic would have convinced you before the season that they’d be a lot worse. But just like the beginning of last year, their defense is carrying the team, and they do it by being extremely aggressive. Through four games, the Air Force defense has compiled 16 sacks while forcing 12 turnovers. Jake Paulson leads the charge with seven of those sacks, while linebacker Ken Lamendola averages nine tackles per game. But the dirty little secret about the Air Force team is that this year, their defense is so aggressive because they have to be. If they didn’t force so many turnovers, Air Force might never score. It’s true that Air Force is sixth in the nation in rushing with nearly 282 yards per game. But that includes the 433 yards racked up against the notorious Southern Utah juggernaut. Since then, they’ve only averaged 231 yards per game. Sure, you could say the same thing about Navy and Towson, but trust me– this is different. Even with the backup quarterback taking the majority of their snaps, Navy is 33rd in the country in total offense. Air Force is 85th. So far, the Air Force offense has twice been held to only 12 first downs and less than 300 total yards. Against Utah, they had only 53 yards rushing. 53! Quarterback Shea Smith averages one interception in every ten passes, and was 0-for-7 passing against Houston– a game where Air Force was outgained by 154 yards. Air Force likes to feature a runner in each game; there was at least one 100-yard runner in each of their nine wins last year. But in 2008, they don’t have anyone they can rely on. Before the season there was a lot of hoopla about cornerback Reggie Rembert playing both ways this year. Air Force fans will tell you that it’s because he’s just that damn good, but the reality is that such things wouldn’t even be considered if there was enough speed and talent on the offensive side of the ball to begin with. The Falcons could get a boost this week with the return of Ty Paffett, who was out after offseason back surgery. Paffett plays the hybrid WR/RB “Z-receiver” that Chad Hall played last year, but it’s unclear just how effective he can be in his first game back.

If Kaipo was healthy, this game wouldn’t even be close, especially now that Navy’s defense has been reborn. Navy should still win, but it’s a much different game with Jarod Bryant at the helm. The Air Force defense is going to come after him hard. The game will be won or lost on Jarod’s ability to handle it. Hopefully, Jarod understands that he shouldn’t feel any pressure to make a big play. There is nothing wrong with punting and letting your defense win a field-position battle. If he can do that– and hold onto the ball– then Navy should get enough big plays from their more talented skill-position players to come out on top.